OT: Are we in a 2000 market or 2018 type market

Just wanted to learn…I understand that there are multiple factors causing the current market downturn. However, I was trying to figure out what was the major factor causing the current downturn, and based on that, whether our current market is similar to a 2000 type market…Or is this predominantly based on the worries of ongoing interest rate hikes, and if yes, is this similar to 2018/2019 backdrop where we had the market fall, although the extent of current downturn is nothing like that?

Obviously, it would be very helpful to understand which one it is. If this was (hopefully) a 2018 type market, but more exaggerated because of the additional “transitory/ temporary” headwinds, then one can continue to hold the companies which may have been markedly rerated, but has a pathway of growth, and can hopefully continue to grow and regain its ATH based on Earnings growth…

If however, this is a 2000 type market, then is there any rationale for buying any stocks now?

I know every person’s circumstances/ time horizon can differ, and so lets assume we have a 20 year time horizon.

Thank you
Charlie

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Check out the last table:

Here is a look at how the current bear market matches up with the previous iterations in terms of interest rates and inflation at their peaks:

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/06/increase-your-expos…

However, this bear market feels different than anything we’ve experienced before. You have the aftershocks of the pandemic, a scorching hot labor market, interest rates that have effectively doubled in less than 6 months, war, record gas prices, record housing prices and a stock market that doubled in record time coming out of the last crash.

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I vote neither. They didn’t have the Covid supply chain issues or the huge money creation by the FED or the fuel disruption due to the Russian attack on Ukraine. This also isn’t exactly like the fuel issues we had in the early 70’s, because the US produces a much larger share of its petroleum than we did then.

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Just wanted to learn…I understand that there are multiple factors causing the current market downturn. However, I was trying to figure out what was the major factor causing the current downturn, and based on that, whether our current market is similar to a 2000 type market…Or is this predominantly based on the worries of ongoing interest rate hikes, and if yes, is this similar to 2018/2019 backdrop where we had the market fall, although the extent of current downturn is nothing like that?

Towards your goal of learnig, let me recommend a board, and a poster on that board to follow…WendyBG. I don’t always agree with her but her posts tend to be detailed, supported by links, highly educational and well worth reading. She is patient with questions. Many excellent posters and much noise. No politics please.

https://discussion.fool.com/macro-economic-trends-and-risks-1149…

IMO the stock market got greatly ahead of itself, excessive exuberance if you will, when interest rates were irrationally suppressed by the Fed and There Was No Alternative, (TINA,) for investments. Everyone piled in. Helicopter cash during Covid, the war in Ukraine, Covid supply chain issues all led to significant inflation that was tackled too late by the Fed, leading to a significant hike in interest rates to try to curb run-a-way inflation and a realization all of the sudden that perhaps there is an alternative and a decline in the stock market. It’s more complicated than that, but it’s a start. Macroeconomics matter.

As an aside, if you want a decent payout on a principal safe investment, check out Ibonds. Super dollar limited and you have to hold at least a year, but it’s a gov’t bond that is paying out 9.62% currently, rate changes every 6 months, comes with limitations such as $10K/SS#/year and has to be in a taxable account, must be held for a year and surrender 3 mos interest if redeemed before 5 years. Payout of interest is when cashed in, not as earned. More to it than that, so google it. Some cool tax benefits to it as well if used for education, but google that hard if that interests you as there are complications and limitations to that also. We put our emergency fund in Ibonds when the kids were little, and still holding and adding to them today.

FWIW,

IP

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I was trying to figure out what was the major factor causing the current downturn, and based on that, whether our current market is similar to a 2000 type market…Or is this predominantly based on the worries of ongoing interest rate hikes, and if yes, is this similar to 2018/2019 backdrop where we had the market fall, although the extent of current downturn is nothing like that?

I fear that you might be trying to figure out if we are at/near the bottom or stocks will continue to fall. The answer is that nobody really knows and if they pretend to know it is just guessing.

Should you start buying back in?
Or should you sell off a bunch more of your next batch of least high conviction stocks?

I surely don’t know. I would be prepared for either situation, but it could takes months to even have an idea. Maybe longer. My advice is to not rush to do anything and spend some time not thinking about stocks.
This all assumes a solid income and emergency fund or a few years of expenses in ~cash so you can feel secure in just not doing anything for a while.

Mike

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A combination of:

  • a bust in the tech / meme / crypto part of the market (like the 2000 dot com bust)
  • supply chain problems caused by e.g. covid lockdowns and the Ukraine war
  • rising inflation and the possibility of the first sustained interest rate rises in over 30 years
  • lots of debt taken out at very low interest rates
  • dysfunctional / adversarial politics may make outcomes worse

So I go for a combination of 2000 dot com and 2008 financial crash all combined in one. :frowning:

Have a nice day! :slight_smile:

SA

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Towards your goal of learning, let me recommend a board, and a poster on that board to follow…WendyBG. I don’t always agree with her but her posts tend to be detailed, supported by links, highly educational and well worth reading.

Here’s one of Wendy’s excellent posts, and one that addresses your question and describes pretty well my reluctance to put my cash to work yet. IMO there is anxious sweat running in the streets, but no blood yet.

https://discussion.fool.com/lti39m-genuinely-curious-how-a-beari…

About the only thing we disagree on is the benefits of dividend paying stocks.

IP

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Thanks a lot everyone. This was very helpful to better understand what is going on…I am learning, and am sure there is a long way to go…yet, I have started, and so that is something!

And Thanks IP for the info on WendyBG and the Macro Economic Trends board.

Thanks so much,
Charlie

Thanks a lot everyone. This was very helpful to better understand what is going on…I am learning, and am sure there is a long way to go…yet, I have started, and so that is something!

I was hoping someone else would be the one to say this, but you haven’t identified the reason you lost your money and you are on track to do it again. You are currently not a good investor. It is not because of RB, or Saul, it is because you don’t know enough about the subject or don’t have sufficient aptitude for it. And I don’t think you have learned humility in the process, because you still think you can recover: you probably can’t, or you wouldn’t be in this position to begin with.

I would encourage you not to look at WendyBG, not to look at newsletters, or any message board. You should go to a major investing service company, set up an account, and get some portion of your remaing money managed with their basic managed account / advisory services. Independent financial advisors require a lot of trust and due diligence, and it’s not worth the risk for you, just go with a Vanguard, Fidelity, et al. With some other portion of your remaining money, put it in a low load SPX index fund or a mix of a few different low load index funds; and then do self-directed investing with what’s left. Compare the results for some time period, a few years. If you can’t beat the managed account or index funds, then you’ve learned you’re not the best option and you should stop managing your own investments. That’s fine, you accumulated the amount you did by doing something else, and not worrying about investing will free you up to focus on that instead.

This probably sounds harsh, but I tell you all of this because I did the same thing and I “fired” myself. I manage a small portion of it now for fun and the intellectual stimulation, but I’m honest with myself about why I do it. I outperform pretty substantially sometimes, but not reliably enough and it’s more fun without my family’s financial future at stake.

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Hi ajm101,

No, it is not harsh at all. You really mean for me to do well, and that is obvious… And I am very thankful for that. I really wish I had done all this learning prior to investing, rather than dong the inverse!

What you said rings a bell…more than a bell… Just 6 months back, when I had already lost a lot, I was talking to my child, and said, “Don’t be like me. Make sure you just simply invest in s&p 500, and move on with your life”…and he said, “Dad, why don’t you do that? It is okay we have lost… at least you will be in something which you don’t have to worry about…”.

At that time, I was unable to take a 40% loss…and now a 75% loss!! And it is making it even more difficult to make that call now.

I have to decide and decide soon about the current disastrous portfolio…Extremely tough to accept such a huge loss.

Your suggestion of vanguard and fidelity is great…will ask them and see what I might need to do.

Thanks again,
Charlie

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You should go to a major investing service company, set up an account, and get some portion of
your remaining money managed with their basic managed account / advisory services.
Independent financial advisors require a lot of trust and due diligence, and it’s not worth the risk for you,
just go with a Vanguard, Fidelity, et al.

Hmmm, opinions differ.

An alternative view:
“Financial advisors”, like real estate agents, are commissioned sales people, the “helpers” of Mr Buffett’s essay.
They have neither motivation nor interest whatsoever in your future wealth, only your fees, direct or hidden.
They will be happy for you to become poor conventionally, with negative return bonds and high fees
and overvalued securities, as long as their advice is conventional and they therefore can’t be blamed. Or sued.
Leeches, in short. They do provide advice, but the advice is considerably worse than a dartboard on average.

That tirade is no less a straw man than your recommendation.
Caveat investor.

However, I do agree with much of your post.
The issue for the poster is how to become a good investor, and to make sure he/she doesn’t do any dumb things until that is accomplished.
The best way not to do any dumb things is probably to do close to nothing at all for a little while.
Robert’s rules of order: A motion to adjourn is always in order.
(once you’re a well informed investor, dumb things are presumably allowed…because one hopes they’ll be rare)

Jim

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Hmmm, opinions differ.

We all contain multitudes, right? Which is my way of saying that I agree with you, too.

Here was my thinking: there is probably more than a few advisors that can substantially outperform Fidelity - which I use - but Fidelity is very unlike to get hacked and lose all their funds, embezzle from me, or otherwise require babysitting. They will probably competently choose investments for me in a tax efficient way with some self dealing, for a higher fee than they deserve, with only decent performance. Unfortunately that is better than I could do myself, and I proved it! I only considered very large, generic advisory services - like Vanguard, BAML, or E*trace / MS - because for similar reasons people here invest in Berkshire.

They are leeches and almost guarantee a mediocre outcome but they were the least bad option for me. Maybe I’ll start doing well enough with the 10% allocation I manage myself that I’ll feel comfortable firing them some day. I am nibbling BRK and have been reading your posts for years, thank you Jim.

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I was hoping someone else would be the one to say this, but you haven’t identified the reason you lost your money and you are on track to do it again. You are currently not a good investor. It is not because of RB, or Saul, it is because you don’t know enough about the subject or don’t have sufficient aptitude for it. And I don’t think you have learned humility in the process, because you still think you can recover: you probably can’t, or you wouldn’t be in this position to begin with.

Probably much truth to this.

I started investing with Vanguard mutual funds. No ETFs at the time. And then joined TMF and read and asked questions. Left the initial positions in mutual funds and started to put new money into stocks as my knowledge increased. Eventually got into Mechanical Investing which was too volatile for DH, who started to try to manage my investing without having any clue about investing himself. Remember that you are only investing for yourself if you are single.

Because divorce is expensive, (over exaggeration but the fights were not worth the growth of the portfolio which was rising very nicely,) we turned our assets over to a financial advisor who was wildly recommended by a few of our friends, highly written up as a rising FP in magazines and USA Today. He was an excellent salesman, but investor? Not so much. He would apply a one size fits all approach, the same mutual funds no matter the tax status of the account instead of choosing assets to maximize tax efficiency and after tax return. He pushed back on my goals or things I wanted to have done with our account, and I repeatedly had to prove him wrong by showing him my calculations that proved we could retire early and we should do Roth Conversions, that taking SS at 70 would be right for us. He just applied standardized platitudes to us while I was the one thinking outside the box and running the numbers.

Those are just the highlights. The best thing he did was prove to DH that I do know what I am doing and that I could certainly be picking mutual funds better than the FP, with a smattering of individual stocks here and there. I consider BRK to be more of a mutual fund/ETF than a stock.

I would encourage you not to look at WendyBG, not to look at newsletters, or any message board.

This I would STRONGLY disagree with. Knowledge is always good to acquire, though just reading a post or two does not make what you read immediately actionable.

Our FP had absolute shock in his voice when we terminated his services. “No one does that! People love me!” I went to the school of TMF. No alphabet soup of letters after my name, but as DH finally realized, that FP learned a great deal from me, which I could teach him from learning a great deal right here on these boards. The FPs I’ve met with are great marketers of their services, not necessarily great investors or the best option to service your account. Their fees and the fees of the funds they put you into tend to be a HUGE drag on your investments, particularly felt in down markets since they always get their cut.

Do your homework.

IP

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They will probably competently choose investments for me in a tax efficient way with some self dealing, for a higher fee than they deserve, with only decent performance. Unfortunately that is better than I could do myself, and I proved it!

I suspect that your humility in the face of Mr Market and self-awareness of limits means you might do better than you think without them : )

Jim

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Some thoughts…

We don’t know the future, that’s a fact.

Most people time the market poorly and doing so subjects one to quite a few psychological forces that can be damaging to long-term wealth growth.

For most people Jack Bogle’s advice to pick an allocation, use low cost investment instruments and stay the course is quite solid advice.

Markets are highly competitive these days, therefore it’s very tough to beat an index.

At least according to Fidelity research, their best performing accounts are those that have been forgotten about.

Concur with the advice on advisors who manage investments. A financial planner who can assist with estate planning, tax strategies, social security and medicare strategies is worth spending some coin on…unless they also manage investments.

Now of course there are exceptions to all of the above, but it “generally” applies…to most people.

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“ At least according to Fidelity research, their best performing accounts are those that have been forgotten about.”

I had a 401k from a job 20 years ago. After I left that job I moved to overseas for a few years, and then I forgot about it. It was my first job after college. 20 years later when I tried to open an account with fidelity, I was shocked to be told that I already have an account there. My 401k account, which was automatically invested in 80% Fidelity mutual funds and 20% cash, have more than doubled since 1999.

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I had a 401k from a job 20 years ago. After I left that job I moved to overseas for a few years, and then I forgot about it. It was my first job after college. 20 years later when I tried to open an account with fidelity, I was shocked to be told that I already have an account there. My 401k account, which was automatically invested in 80% Fidelity mutual funds and 20% cash, have more than doubled since 1999.

That’s a 3% CAGR. After inflation about 0.05%. So maybe you shouldn’t have forgotten about the account?

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I had a 401k from a job 20 years ago. After I left that job I moved to overseas for a few years, and then I forgot about it. It was my first job after college. 20 years later when I tried to open an account with fidelity, I was shocked to be told that I already have an account there. My 401k account, which was automatically invested in 80% Fidelity mutual funds and 20% cash, have more than doubled since 1999.

That’s poor performance. The S&P500 in 20 years has almost quadrupled including dividends.

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Once again I’ll mention that we had a man in our investment club, a very sophisticated bunch of wealthy men…the club began in 1954 (no original members of course), and this man bought EMC Corporation for himself at a split adjusted price of less than one dollar. Shortly afterwards our club bought the stock.

Wasn’t long, less than 8 years, till the stock sold for $105. Of course this “success” led our club to an “all technology” portfolio throuout the 1990’s. For that 10 year period we had a 35% annual return. Prior to that era we sought 15% annual return stocks but during that boom period of tech we decided our minimum return in seeking stocks should be 25%.

25 club members, all individually bought EMC with the exception of me. 23 lost money with EMC as the stock fell from $105 to $7…where the club sold the stock. The member who introduced EMC sold at $80-something and made a ton.

Obviously the 23 bought the stock on its way up and such. But that’s not the story here the story is that in the end, if you selected 1989 as the beginning point and 2002 and the ending point? Our club underperformed Mr. Market.

If you believe Saul’s results? It is irrelevant. We had a person come here who took $1.2 million, which with a pension and/or social security can get you out of life if you watch your spending. Now following our co-board god of investing that poster has $300,000 and is on the watch list for financial problems later in life.

Who is Saul? Who cares? I try my best to help people, not destroy them. My ego? I’ll defer to others on this board as they do a good job…and I can tag along from time to time.

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Hi Chompin,

Thanks for the post. Again, I really wish I had known that stocks can fall “this” dramatically…I have heard people losing money in vices/ gambling and what not…But not in wildest dreams did I think that it would be possible to lose this much in investing in stocks, that too in just about a years time. Well, that was a very expensive lesson but lesson learned nonetheless - “pigs” do get slaughtered! However, what would be very helpful is to figure out what can be done to course correct.

I appreciate you saying you were trying to help. And I also greatly appreciate that you have witnessed and lived through many market cycles…So, in your opinion, what would be actionable items to do, in the current market environment.

Thanks a lot,
Charlie