pretending I know macro / Fed stuff

My read:

  1. market expected 50 at min.
  2. Fed went with minimum. (always hesitant to get aggressive it seems)
  3. Powell press conf was expected to be asked about next hike being 75 bps. If he said “we are considering” that would be hawkish. But he said “not under consideration at this time” which is dovish.

Market turned around after #3 happened.

So my expert uneducated analysis is that growth/market likes the reluctant wuss Fed that won’t raise too fast, because it is more market-friendly (even if not actually best for the economy in long-run).

Thus, perhaps a bear rally is being kicked off.
I will be watching the tickers closely and selling the rips if/when I can, because if we give it a couple weeks, we will be right back to waiting for next Fed meeting amongst hand-wringing and pontificating and oracles of doom and boom.

Russia/Ukraine a wildcard. Putin being removed or inexplicably giving up the war is obviously a positive. Nuclear weapon deployed…obviously a negative. If it is basically a 5-10yr slog, then it gets absorbed and fades into the background.

But market excesses of 2020-2021 will remain, much of which has been unwound in many stocks, but not others. The inflation and supply chain stuff should recede for certain things, provided no more covid surprises. So any move up is a bear market rally, imo, until proven otherwise.

Doesn’t mean you can’t start investing in stocks you like now. Just means I won’t be shocked if we rally and then retest lows again in weeks or months down the road.