OT-Elon

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IGU: I suggest to use the word “evidence” not in every sentence. I understand you are an engineer, right? Unfortunately this seem to cause you to be you inflexible insofar as you see everything through an engineer’s tinted glasses (actually “evidence” isn’t even an engineer’s concept but that of a scientist).

“Common sense” has no meaning for you as long as there is no hard evidence. Such a stance causes to miss reality as it is, especially the reality of humans. Maybe every engineer should have compulsory classes in psychology (and the other way around of course).

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“Common sense” has no meaning for you as long as there is no hard evidence.

Criminal is a high bar. Your touchy, feely, common sense are fine for hemline not for criminal. Either you have evidence or you don’t.

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IGU and Kingran are correct about Tesla.
…
…
Charlie said something like…Maybe someone else can recall Charlie’s quote.

The above sentences might be a bit inconsequential:
A) King is correct about T… , you say
B) What Charlie says has value for you?

Do you think King is correct in this case only or in general? In the latter case you should dismiss what Charlie says as according to King (a post a few months ago) he is an “Idiot”.

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That’s what Engadget and CNBC reported Musk said. Often completely false. Point to the actual source.

For the record, it took me less than 30 seconds to google the video. The quote is at the end, around the 9:30 mark.
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/videos/musk-predicts-1-million…

I really don’t care one way or the other about what he said, and the Tesla technology is certainly amazing. But to deny an easily provable fact is silly. And if you want to play the “It was taken out of context” card, then watch the whole thing. (It wasn’t.)

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Let us be clear, I called Charlie an Idiot for his support to Chinese government.

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But [Engadget and CNBC] are not primary sources

Yes. They are. Journalists who report on events they witnessed are primary sources. These primary sources are suitable for citation in research work. (Rather than argue that point with me, please open a dictionary or use google to check the definition of the term “primary source.”)

I am a secondary source, having simply repeated what I read, but I provided you the primary sources for reference. If you doubt my primary sources, even after referring to them, you can avail yourself of the same tool I used (i.e, google) and find many other primary sources all reporting the same thing. You would also quickly find the original presentation, which as MisterFungi noted, takes only seconds; less time than you spent arguing a lost point.

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/videos/musk-predicts-1-million…

Here’s the money quote from Elon Musk. Tesla Autonomy Day, April 2019:

“Next year, FOR SURE,” and that emphasis is intoned in the original video, “we will have over a million robotaxis on the road. The fleet wakes up with an over the air update. That’s all it takes. What is the net present value of a robotaxi? Probably on the order of a couple hundred thousand dollars. So buying a Model 3 is a good deal.”

At the time, this was an incredible, visionary picture of the future. What was even more incredible was that it was presented as something that was not just a certainty, but an imminent one. That certain, imminent future was then used to support the idea that Model 3 wasn’t just a car, but an actual investment opportunity, and that buyers would be able to turn their cars into automated income-generating machines that would recoup their purchase costs many times over.

Given what’s transpired since then - no robotaxis, no robotaxi income for customers who bought a Model 3 expecting they’d be able to start monetizing it by late 2020, as Musk promised - it’s a pretty damning clip.

Rob

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Point to the actual source.
For the record, it took me less than 30 seconds to google the video. The quote is at the end, around the 9:30 mark.

Well, that’s better.

I really don’t care one way or the other about what he said, and the Tesla technology is certainly amazing. But to deny an easily provable fact is silly. And if you want to play the “It was taken out of context” card, then watch the whole thing. (It wasn’t.)

But not very good. What you found what a video edited for highlights by CNET. So everything is out of context. A few minutes from an event that went over 2.5 hours, most of the time with somebody other than Musk talking. And even in this video outtake, all Musk says is that they “expect” to have robotaxis on the road in 2020. And much of the rest of what he says is about how the hardware is ready but is waiting for the software.

Turns out, of course, that he’s been way optimistic about the software. Repeatedly. He’s even predicted yet again that this year, 2022, will be the year that Teslas become autonomous. And that was just recently. I’m pretty confident that it isn’t going to happen, given that I’ve been driving their FSD Beta software in my 2018 Model S since last October. Progress is steady, but slow.

But yeah, primary sources are really all that you can use if you want to present facts.

Although I think it’s quite clear at this point that few people care anything about facts. Rumor and lurid accusations are what’s selling here.

-IGU-

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Rob, you are correct, Sir, and I would remind you to not forget Musk’s “horse” analogy from that same event:

CNBC headline: Elon Musk: Any other car than a Tesla in 3 years will be like ‘owning a horse’

PUBLISHED TUE, APR 23 20196:59 AM EDTUPDATED TUE, APR 23 20192:39 PM EDT

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/23/elon-musk-any-other-car-than…

:pushpin: “It’s financially insane to buy anything other than a Tesla,” says the CEO of the electric auto maker.

:pushpin: “It would be like owning a horse in three years. I mean, fine if you want to own a horse. But you should go into it with that expectation.”

:pushpin: On stage at the Tesla Autonomy Investor Day in Palo Alto, California, Musk was boasting about Tesla’s self-driving technology.

p.s. Let’s not forget another highly touted promise Musk demonstrated and which never came to fruition: in 2013 Musk wowed investors with a battery swap presentation. Tesla has yet to open its first battery swap station:

https://www.tesla.com/videos/battery-swap-event

Meanwhile, $NIO just opened its 1,000th Battery Swap Station and performed its 10 Millionth Battery Swap. (For perspective, in late October 2021 Nio announced the 4 millionth battery swap.)

Nio’s BaaS (Battery as a Service) is a monthly subscription service and Nio owners can buy the car without a battery (meaning cheaper price) and choose a monthly short-range or long-range battery plan charged to the owner’s credit card or payment system.

When the car is running low on juice, the driver takes his car to a Nio battery swap station. With the press of a button on the Nio car owner’s cellphone, the car will enter a Battery Swap Station - on its on - and the whole swapping process controlled by A/I and robots with over 1,000 sensors. Battery swaps take less than five minutes.

Nio is offering to lease its battery swap technology to its rivals.

Open this X-post link and you’ll learn that the latest Nio Battery Swap Station is also powered by Solar and hydropower and they will be building 500-mw fast-charging stations alongside the battery swap stations in Europe and China.

https://discussion.fool.com/nio39s-10-millionth-battery-swap-100…

p.p.s. Nio entered the European market via the Norwegian market, selling its first cars there in Q2 2022. Nio just built its first Norwegian Battery Swap Station and is already constructing its second location in Norway. This first Norwegian BSS is only one bay as the market is so new. But the video shows you how precise the battery swap tech is as it handles your car like a baby being laid down into a crib.

https://insideevs.com/news/591837/nio-battery-swapping-stati…

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Hey Jim, My wife is in the Elon “fan club” and I’m, let’s say “less than an Elon fan”. Humbly request your input to help settle a difference of opinion between my wife and I.
She believes, despite Elons agreement to buy, he can legally fight the purchase agreement because Twitter had indicated less than 5% bots….which Twitter will now have to reveal in court it being above such. Being the case, she believes he can escape purchase.
What say you?
paul

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It will be very difficult for Elon to escape. The case is filed in Delaware court, and they are going to enforce the contract. Delaware is where most of the companies are registered for a reason. The 5% bot is not defined in the purchase agreement. Even if Elon somehow proves that Twitter management had lied in their SEC filing, they will pay a fine for that and refile.

Remember, Elon waived all due diligence. He rally has no escape route, short of filing for bankruptcy. Also, don’t forget there are large number of powerful folks from SEC, to White House, Musk has people who are not happy or even pissed with him. So no one is going to be coming to his rescue. The fan following is great, but courts are not going to be influenced by that. When in doubt look at recent SCOTUS rulings.

If he fails to follow through, they are going to go after his Tesla shares. I think this time it is Icarus moment.

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It should be a fun day on Twitter today as Orange Julius and Subsidy Truffle Hound tug on each other’s hair plugs.

https://twitter.com/BradMunchen/status/1547010788677718016

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What Musk is exposing is most laws are toothless, they just levy some useless fines. These guys will pay the fine and walk away.

Don’t get mad at Musk for exposing the loopholes.

Those who are interested in this matter, should watch this video. This is an interview of former vice chancellor, and she is narrating a position where court may be “worried or concerned” about passing a judgement that Elon may ignore!!! If he ignores the ramification of a court order not enforceable or ignored is much bigger… Anyways listen yourself.

https://twitter.com/SquawkStreet/status/1547248567143862273

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sergey-brin-ordered-sale-musk…

Google co-founder Sergey Brin instructed his advisers to sell his personal investments in Elon Musk’s companies in recent months after learning that he had a brief affair with his wife, according to the Wall Street Journal.

One more reason for Jim to hate Musk :wink:

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One more reason for Jim to hate Musk :wink:

Nah, in this case I’m relatively cool. Not illegal, not life threatening, doesn’t hurt shareholders.
I can see the individuals involved might have strong feelings, perhaps reasonably so, but I’ll leave it to them.

Jim

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75

One more reason for Jim to hate Musk :wink:

No, not really.

From all his posts on this board and other boards, it
is clear that Jim doesn’t get involved with such
counterproductive, distracting and time-consuming emotions
as “hate”.

Instead, he is focused on the task at hand, i.e., a careful,
systematic and unemotional analysis of current and future
prospects of various strategies, screens and individual
companies.

A while back, someone on this board (or was it the MI board?)
opined that anyone who said they were ahead this year was a
liar. Not being litigious, I didn’t respond. But, for the
person that posted that thought, please be advised that my portfolio
was very comfortably ahead at that time; and as of the close of the market
last Friday (July 22) the portfolio I held then is now up 5.99% for the
year. And that does not include recent investments from cash subsequently
added. Those new investments are up nearly 4.0%.

How possible? The results are the product of carefully considering
and implementing Jim’s principles, analyses and suggestions that he has been
generously sharing with all of us for more than 20 years on these
boards.

So, a heartfelt thanks to Jim for sharing his dispassionate analyses. My
contribution to these results? Just being sufficiently thoughtful (and
thankful) to appreciate his generosity.

vez

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careful, systematic and unemotional analysis of current and future prospects…

Thanks for the kind words, but don’t forget to add “…and frequently wrong” to that list : )
I’m often spectacularly wrong, though fortunately for me not with a big position lately.

Most of my failures seem to come from being sucked into the same trap that is probably common to many of us:
thinking some business is a bit more predictable than it turns out to be.
I seem to have a reasonable handle on not expecting market prices to be more predictable than they are.
But when a business steps in a big smelly mess that I really did not anticipate, the price tends to follow.
Sometimes I’m in good company with the error, but that consolation won’t pay the rent.

Jim

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77

The Musk story has taken a bungee jump bounce. Two Murdoch properties now giving completely different stories about Musk, Brin, and Brin’s missus.

You can’t make up this stuff. Yes you can. Somebody did. But who is wrong and who pulled the strings?

https://discussion.fool.com/man-this-story-has-taken-a-twist-one…

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From Larry Cunningham’s Quality Investing email:

“…Countering hubris are other character traits that are worth probing. One is humility, the recognition of the limits of one’s knowledge. It is an awareness of fallibility, opposite of the know-it-all. Alas, humility does not appear to be among Musk’s strong suits.
Inquisitiveness can be a direct defense against excessively risky bets that hubris produces. It combines intellectual curiosity with thorough fact-finding. It tests assertions and hypotheses before accepting and acting on them, rejecting assumptions that are not based on evidence. Again, this is not something Musk radiates.
It is possible to reverse hubris, to keep one’s confidence but check the arrogance. Do this by striving for humility, not believing praise you hear about yourself, and getting advice from people with different points of view. It is not obvious that Musk is up for cultivating these habits either…”

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Those who managed to buy Tesla stock at its low of $101/sh in December are up close to 90% for the month of January. The stock hit $195/share Friday.

Tesla reported nice earnings gains again on Jan 25. They expect to grow earnings by 30% this year. And produce 2MM autos.

Let’s hope Elon continues to “flail” along. We love it!!!

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Have fun being poor. Lol.

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