The market usually reacts around 6 months in advance. We hit the bottom 6 months prior to the bottom and at the bottom stocks are already rising. Last information the manufacturing index is down and all pointing negative (except for employment - but even that is said to suck (although it has never been better)), the moment to sell is exactly not now.
This said, I sure hate finishing paying for refurbishing my pool the last two months. It is all relative. Your down, and spending on anything hurts more than when you are up (the wealth effect). I think it is more acute to us though with higher-beta stocks.
But to add some more board relevance, Avalara, sales tax compliance in the cloud, not the first time brought up here, but hey, they’ve outperformed even Roku stock since their IPO. They are the clear mid-market leader with accelerating growth, but still a bit tamer than I normally look at. But hitting the 40s from the 20s. Only a 113 (was it, or was it 110) NRR. They have to work at upsetting, and creating more unsellable products. When you get your sales tax calculated on Amazon or eBay it is probably Avalara for any mid-market or small vendor.
Given the complexity of sales tax, it is likely to be a necessity for any enterprise in ecommerce world wide. Avalara is barely international now, but it seems to me they went public largely to fund this expansion. The company is founder run, has a great corporate culture, limited competition (but real) as Taxjar is real, but way behind Avalara for marketshare. Vertex is real, but focused primarily o larger enterprises and not much into the mid-market. Here is a 2 minute video from a customer who used Vertex and then with his new job switched to Avalara: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofNksi0TGPg
It gives a lot of quick insight into the market. Boring, perhaps, but this is a company, like Paycom, focusing on the mid-market with a laser focus on sales and marketing execution quarter after quarter.
A new name interesting to discuss I think. Disclosure: No, I don’t own any. I usually have a hard time sticking with the more staid and steady. One reason I passed on Paycom, but also a reason I invested in AYX (AYX is similar to Paycom in that they both have turned their sales efforts into machines that execute, and that is largely the key to their success (ie, AYX is more unique and disruptive and growing even faster - so really like that sort of thing as it is also funner).
But I also like to learn from my oversights. I have exactly 0% success in my pat life trying to invest in more staid and practical investments. These bad experiences (fortunately I always sold out before disaster - and yes, multiple disasters were found investing in banks, and insurance companies, and student loan companies and the sort of companies that are proper and suited for the “unsophisticated” investor as many times in the past the professionals have told us) have influenced my not investing in say a Paycom. 30% into perpetuity growth with a Roman Empire like focus on sales and marketing execution, and the engineering to back it up, with limited competition (with Paycom because of their mid market focus, and with Avalara the same, plus they already are the dominant vendor, first mover in the industry (in the United States and Canada anyways) seems an excellent recipe for excellent long-term returns if you ignore the volatility.
I like more limited risk factors such as new technology disruptors coming along, or misjudging product trends, or new real competitors entering the market, and having my risk more limited to sales and marketing execution.
So will I dig in and buy some? I don’t know. I have decided to add more again (despite paying for my pool - blasted thing - I don’t even like to swim - but property values and all…) so maybe it will be Avalara, but would like a discussion in regard.
Just seeing if anyone else here has dug into it.
Tinker