Poll: If China blocked Taiwan exports...

What would be the economic effects upon the US, Europe, Japan, Australia, and other trade partners if China were to forcibly block Taiwan from exporting goods to any country other than to mainland China?
.

  • Very little if any economic effect outside Taiwan
  • Minor effect while alternative suppliers are found
  • Major effect while alternative suppliers are found
  • Disruptive enough for western military intervention
  • China wouldn’t dare to interfere with Taiwan’s trade

0 voters

Blockade would be an act of war. Defense alignments would be tested.

China/Hongkong are Taiwan’s biggest export market. Their high-tech industry is very, very dependent on Taiwan’s exports. The damage Taiwan could do by withholding those exports would be very bad for the struggling Chinese economy.

2 Likes

The damage Taiwan could do by withholding those exports would be very bad for the struggling Chinese economy.

Not to mention that the factories would be destroyed if China invaded the island.

DB2

https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/taiwan-marke….

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/twn

China is Taiwan’s largest trading partner, accounting for 26.3 percent of total trade and 22.2 percent of Taiwan’s imports in 2020.

In terms of total trade, other major Taiwan trading partners include Japan (10.9 percent), the European Union (8.2 percent), and Hong Kong (7.9 percent).

Most Americans are not aware of the long-term close symbiotic trade relationship between China and Taiwan. Taiwanese tourists make up the largest single national group visiting China. The US does not want Taiwan to be absorbed into China and goes to great lengths to promote that idea both in Taiwan and at home with non-stop decades of propaganda. It also makes a great deal of money selling arms to Taiwan which, if China decides to invade, might bloody their nose, but won’t be able to turn the tide.

The US will no more go to war with China over Taiwan than it would defending Ukraine against Russia. That said, it is in China’s best interest to continue their profitable trade (and through that control) with Taiwan, rather than fight an expensive war.

Jeff

5 Likes

NO SNACKS FOR YOU!

LOL

YR

The US will no more go to war with China over Taiwan than it would defending Ukraine against Russia.

Jeff,

I disagree here. If China attacks Taiwan we will defend Taiwan. If the war explodes we will jam China’s ability to fight it almost entirely. China will jam as as well. GPS can be stopped entirely. There is no war across the straight without GPS.

We wont back down. We did not back down in Ukraine either. We recognized our role extremely well in Ukraine. We have used some $50 billion in direct military aide in Ukraine.

Taiwan will be a bigger operation. We will command it. We must.

NH,

I said major effects.

But China does not have the naval power to block Taiwan ships over the objections of the US and UK/France/Japan/Australia/SK.

China’s air force would need to start a shooting war. It wont happen. If it does the pilots US will start jamming the GPS making China’s air force useless.