I love that there are so many bears and so much caution out there right now. I think it helps to keep this market going up. At some point we are going to have to take a break, but guessing when that is, well that’s pretty impossible. You can go with a Magic 8 ball, or a lucky number and Probably do just as well. So here is mine.
Nov 9th. That is my guess. For what? I’m not really even sure. Why? Well I noticed a pattern in my portfolios. Nov 9th 2021 my portfolio hit an ATH that day. The ironies of all ironies, on Nov. 9th 2022 my portfolios hit a bear market low. Yep, a bottom. A day I’ve almost blacked out, and almost shocked to look at now, just how low things got. I was down I think over 50% at that time. What’s to me now even more amazing is since that low on Nov. 9th, my portfolio is up around 95% from that low. I’ll have to calculate the numbers, but eyeballing them, it’s about 4% from a double from that low. I was putting cash to work thoughout the past year, which helped juice my returns. I’m currently about 3% above an ATH. So I don’t know what’s more impressive, the low I hit, or the rebound from that low.
What’s the lesson in all of this for me? Same as always. Find great companies like TSLA, AAPL, NVDA, build positions and hold them for a long time. Jumping in and out never seems to work. You get one side of it right, but so hard to get both. Once your committed to being on the sidelines, it’s incredibly difficult to get back in as the market just seems to move away from you and your caught miles behind as all those lost gains disappear with those opportunities right over the horizon.
I’m looking forward to Nov 9th now as some sort of magic Gann type numerical significance. Hey maybe it will be my new ATH that’s signaling me to raise cash quickly. Trust me, if I’m at an ATH that day, I’ll be going very cautious indeed. Not that I’ll do anything about it. ;).
Just gotta love the open discussion here and the respect eventhough everybody has their own different opinion. No filtering needed and just keep it coming.
Two thumbs up!! That’s exactly what I tell kids that want to start investing in an IRA.
I also have to tell them “Do as I say not as I do.”
I manage several relatives accounts and they are each up +35%
Very diversified and maybe 10% turnover in a year.
My own IRA…+25% trying to time too many items and too much cash,
Looking at you DDOG!!
Good segment this morning about 10 minutes in “State of the Markets”
in the vein of this thread.
Here is a chart from Blockchain Backer, who I’ll give 100% his due for calling the top on the stock market in Nov 2021. I remember that day well, and why I raised more cash then I would have. Epic call.
Today I happen to see a tweet he put out showing that the Dow and the S&P have both broken through their retracement levels. A very good sign for technicians to see. So the close was a very strong sign for the market.
I don’t know technical analysis. But, looking at NASDQ chart, the spread between 20 day and 100 day moving averages is wider now than it was at any time in 2020 and 2021.
It depends on where one is standing. Nervous? Rarely. I see any correction as an opportunity to put more cash to work, so looking forward to the next correction. Today I’m hitting up 53%YTD, so even if we get a 20% correction, even if I end up 32%YTD, I’m very happy with that return. Honestly if I end up only at 22% for 2023, I’m still very happy, and will only be putting cash to work along the way, with my vision always set on years from now, not days, weeks or even months.
With that longer term vision, I’m not sure what there is to me nervous about, unless you are getting in and out of stocks, trading a lot, and trying to time the market. Then I guess I can see how one might be nervous.
port drops 20% or $30.6, you are left with $122.4, or a YTD gain of 22.4%
May want to start checking math.
From your earlier post:
You were at $100 before Nov 2021 started
You lost 50% at 2022 low point, you are now at $50
Since 2022 low, you gain 95%, you are at $97.5
Yet you said you are 3% above an ATH.
Sorry…but I trust your math about as much as I agree with your macro outlook.
But good luck.
I also said I was adding cash into stocks all along the way. Dollar cost averaging, which helped turbocharge my returns.
So if I started with say 100 shares of TSLA, added along the way, ended up with say 300 shares of TSLA, and the stock was up, then I would have boosted my returns a year later much more then if I had just kept the position at 100 shares. Pretty simple math.
What is happening in the market today which caused the tech stocks to go down? I was trying to understand if there is any reasoning behind this, but couldn’t find it.
Of course, the stocks had run up a bit, but I am sure there must be some reasoning behind todays action…It is another question altogether whether that “reasoning” is valid or not.
So the NFLX and TSLA reports released yesterday afternoon were both just average, and Taiwan Semi also showed that things won’t just go straight up. Also, if you look at the chart of the Nasdaq (since you asked about tech stocks) over the last 6 months (last 4 especially), it’s been almost straight up with very little pullbacks. There’s always going to be pullbacks, some will even last longer than a day(!), so watch out.
I think a combination of those have all contributed to today’s drop, there may be more coming, nothing goes straight up, well, except for UPST of course, as it hit up 5X in 2.5 months.
If you are wondering on any one day why the market went up or down, you are too close to the market and need to take about ten steps back. There is nothing to read into this one day. It’s just another day.
Like Foodles mentioned I closely followed the TSLA and NFLX reports…and I couldn’t really see if the reports were that bad for the prices for those 2 to go down so much, but then I am not market savvy.
I agree that TSM profit fall was a concern, but I wasn’t sure how to extrapolate that to stocks like MSFT and NVDA or all tech stocks in general.
So, again, was there any macro report which spooked the market?
I have decided to never ever assume again that the market is irrational while I am right or worse Motley fool is right…I have lost too much thinking that way!
Would love to hear the thoughts from that front.
I made some short term play on MSFT and DHI and both puked on me {
"Taiwan Semiconductor also cut its revenue forecast for the full year to a 10% decline from a mid-single-digit decline. “This is the third cut to its revenue outlook that TSMC has made this cycle,” Needham analyst Charles Shi said in a note to clients. Shi had expected TSMC to reduce its 2023 sales outlook to a high-single-digit decline.
“TSMC’s second-quarter earnings call may go down as one of the more pessimistic calls in recent history,” Shi said."
TSMC makes chips for the golden child NVIDIA. One of the big drivers of the indexes the last 6 month
So in context I do think AI is the future but it may not save earnings in the short term but well see when NVIDIA reports.
To me it seems like tech profit taking/sector rotation on the heels of apparently disappointing TSLA and NFLX reports. Don’t think TSM had much impact, as SMCI did a prerelease and smashed consensus, indicating at least for the short term that the AI play remains intact.
Take a look at DOW jones index. Was green. Made 52 week highs today.
Take a look at SP500 Equal weight index (SPXEW). Basically flat on the day.
Take a look at VIX. Only up 1.53% on a day that QQQ was crushed -2.31%?
Put it all together, doesn’t seem like any true red flags for a “new bear market downturn”. Still looks to me like a tech pullback during a bull market.
TSM consensus was dramatically lowered, then they issue a press release that they are going to smash those numbers.
Then when actual earnings are released actual revenue is down 10% from a year ago and net income fell 23% from a year ago. The second quarter was better than reduced expectations and the third will be worse than reduced expectations.
I have to find the source for this but 80% of companies are beating estimates so far but revenues are down 7% YoY.
I believe DOW was up due to sector rotation into those type companies - XLU Utility index was up 1.8% today. I usually like to see a 3 day rotation before thinking it’s a real thing.
That is definitely a game being played.
Ironically, companies are also benefitting from inflation propping up their profit.
As deflation occurs, those dominos will also fall.
Declining revenues, with declining profits in tow.
At my company, which sells to thousands of US based companies alone, the budgets for enterprises in the software/hardware/services space are tight, and sales goals are not being met across multiple OEMs whose solutions we sell.
To me, this is a fake-it-till-you-make-it bull market, which is to say I don’t buy the hype.
“So, again, was there any macro report which spooked the market?”
Inspired2learn,
I missed most of the TSLA move over the years. I was in once, was scared out about 1500% ago, and got back in this past January on the Twitter sell off, and the fact that I drive a Rivian and realized quickly how bad the charging network is out there for anyone not Tesla. So I jumped back in at 116.
I know guys here in MF that have been in since the IPO, have never veered, never stepped out, been through the constant noise and negativity, and they have made small fortunes. In fact they are right now as positive on TSLA the company as they have ever been. That’s commitment, that’s cutting out the noise, the fear and staying the course. That’s the kind of return that more than covers for all the other mistakes an investor makes along the way.
My stock since 2003 has been AAPL, and on that same path AMZN and to some extent NFLX. AAPL though is the one I still hold. For the first time in 20 years though I did sell 20% of my holdings recently at 184. That was hard to do, but I finally did it.
So all I can say if you’re looking for advice is to stay patient, try to find optimistic well balanced people to learn from. The one guy I will recommend is Brad Freeman who you can find on Twitter and from there you can sign up for his free newsletter. I’m not sure why he is still doing his analysis for free, but for now he is. A really good guy who just so happens to do really good work on finding longer term investments.
Best of luck to you moving forward. Stay patient, stay positive and don’t worry so much about stock moves like today. They happen all the time.
Probbaly a sign of a top? Yea maybe, heck something needs to finally be right for you. At some point you will be right.
Reminds me of someone I know that this week brought up the old Alan Greenspan statement “irrational exuberance”. His stance is that he’s had it right the past year being short the market, listening to one pundit, sticking with it like Charlton Heston’s infamous line about guns, “from my cold dead hands”.
The market doesn’t get it right or wrong, it’s not emotional, investors are. The market just does what it does. It’s not going to listen to you. This person acts as if they have it right and it’s the market that needs to come to its senses and wake up. That it’s the market that’s been wrong so far in 2023. That’s a tough position to be in, and most likely unwise. It’s certainly been for this first part of this new bull market.
Being critical of others isn’t going to help much either. This is still a public board and if someone comes on asking a question, and if I can lend a hand in helping that person just a little bit, or at least having a conversation, I’ll do that every time.
