Poll: UPST

Fool Community Help Desk Ask A Foolish Question
1

If earnings is a block buster

  • Sell all at the news and get out
  • Sell half only in hopes of brighter future
  • Hold
  • Buy more

0 voters

2

Charts are telling there was a confirmed BUY signal on 1/31/22 @ 94.70. Today UPST had a high of $148.60.

3

Charts are telling there was a confirmed BUY signal on 1/31/22 @ 94.70. Today UPST had a high of $148.60.

++++++++++++++++++

But he wants to know about 2-3 weeks or so from now.

ww

4

Do you mind telling me how you could read this chart? Obviously it was more accurate than mine. My other premium subscription indicated sell and now hold after the earnings.

5

Do you mind telling me how you could read this chart? Obviously it was more accurate than mine. My other premium subscription indicated sell and now hold after the earnings.

Quillnpen would be the best to really tell you what he is saying, but since he hasn’t replied, let me make a guess.

He believes a lot in EMA crosses and Heikin-Ashi candles. I actually do also believe in those signals, but at different levels. Also, the key is that either works relatively well in trends. Volatile times like now make them very difficult.

His usual EMAs are often 13/50 crosses, none of which signaled in this time frame. I tend to look at 3/8 crosses which did signal. But the key is, they are alerts to look at a stock and other factors. They are not definitive. There is NO holy grail and NO absolute signal.

The Heikin-Ashi candles did change on 1/31 with a buy signal; however, they signaled indecision on 2/2 and sell on 2/3. Then buy on 2/9 but wait, sell on 2/11. Indecision on 2/11 and buy on 2/16. Welcome to volatility. The thing is, by the time you get the signal with Heikin-Ashi, the price may make it a joke.

With all that said, I still strongly encourage you to look at technical analysis and signals. Personally, I believe in fundamentally strong stocks with good technical signals. But we are going into a cyclical bear in a secular bull. Trend signals become difficult at best.

Best of luck,
LakeDog

3 Likes
6

Gentlemen,

call up Tradingview.com
you should see a mountain climber
click on click AAPL
change the ticker symbol from AAPL to ROIC
next to the right click on 1 Day
next to the right click on that box and find Heikin Ashi
click on Heikin Ashi and play with your thumb wheel for sizing.

Now how to buy and sell ROIC with simple rules on any other stock /ETF you may have.

  1. BUY - - - On the first GREEN Heikin Ashi after the last RED bar.

  2. SELL - - On the first RED Heikin Ashi after the last GREEN bar.

An example: place the cursor on 31 Jan 22 per the above rule # 1.

Now place the cursor on 03 FEB 22 per the above rule # 2

There will be days where you get a huge string of GREEN bars before stopping out on a RED bar

Stir rinse and repeat, Stir rinse and repeat over and over. If a 9-year-old can do it, I am damn sure an adult can do this without an excuse.

Swing Traders like me can make a million dollars just by trading AAPL and not other stocks. Just check the chart every day from 9:45 to 10:00 am EST.

My main chart I use daily on all my stocks / etfs / ETHUSD (daily and 15-minute charts) are from Stockcharts. I use OHLC BARS. It is faster to read the chart instead of candle stix.

re: UPST place the cursor on 1/25/22 to BUY and to SELL place the cursor on 2/18/22.

If I had owned UPST 12/16/21, I would have had 9 successful trades with zero (0) losses. UPST peaked at 383.53. For all the HODlers (hang on for dear life) watched UPST go all the way down to 75.15. OUCH !!!

Have been trading AAPL since 2007 the day I got laid off and have achieved my vision many times via Stockcharts.

Quillnpenn - a poor church mouse scratching for a living as a Swing Trader for over 45 years.
------------ Vision - Multi-Millionaire…Goal - earn 1.3% - 2.5% compounded Daily

7

The original poster is talking about UPST, so let’s stay with that. No more hand-waving about AAPL or ROIC or WTF. Let’s look at your rules and UPST as you stated them. No shell game.

First of all, let’s look at your rules to purchase/sell:

1. BUY - - - On the first GREEN Heikin Ashi after the last RED bar.

2. SELL - - On the first RED Heikin Ashi after the last GREEN bar.

Simple, but let’s be more specific. Do you wait until the candle has fully formed or do you take an educated guess based on the development of the candle during the course of the trading day? Some Heikin-Ashi traders would say wait until the close and you confirm the candle, others may fudge based upon the apparent candle near the close of the day. Below is the OHLC data from Yahoo for UPST from 1/24/22 to 2/18/22.


Date        Open   High   Low      Close    HACandle    Signal  NextDay	 P/L    SameDay  P/L
1/24/22	    86.4   92.2   75.2     91.4     Red					
1/25/22	    88.6   98.3   88.3 	   94.2	    Red					
1/26/22	    98.2   106.1  94	   96.1     Green	Buy     100.5		 96.1	
1/27/22	    100.5  103	  87.0	   90.1	    Red	        Sell    89.04	-11.5	 90.1 	-5.92
1/28/22	    89.0   96.7   87.3     95       Red					
1/31/22	    96.2   110.0  95       109.0    Green       Buy     111.3		 109.0	
2/1/22      111.3  120.7  106.4    117.3    Green					
2/2/22      115.0  116.4  103.1    105.8    Green					
2/3/22      99.6   105.2  97.1     97.9     Red         Sell    99.6    -11.7    97.9   -11.08
2/4/22	    99.6   101.4  93.2     98.6     Red					
2/7/22      99.5   105.2  95.3     96.0     Red					
2/8/22      95     100.9  94.7     100      Red					
2/9/22      102.9  113.2  102.8    112.3    Green       Buy     107.8            112.3	
2/10/22     107.8  120.0  102.2    106      Green 			
2/11/22     106.1  108.9  98.3     100.0    Red         Sell    100.3   -7.5     100.2  -12.09
2/14/22     100.0  108.8  97.5     104.6    Red					
2/15/22     107.5  109.9  98.8     109.1    Green       Buy     137.2            109.11	
2/16/22     137.2  150.1  133.0    148.0    Green					
2/17/22     157.2  157.4  136.6    139.6    Green					
2/18/2022   139.4  144.4  126.4    130.1    Red         Sell    TBD               130.05 20.94

                          Total Profit/Loss                             -30.7        -8.15

You have stated: Charts are telling there was a confirmed BUY signal on 1/31/22 @ 94.70. Today UPST had a high of $148.60. (Post 285218) and just before this post If I had owned UPST 12/16/21, I would have had 9 successful trades with zero (0) losses.

I didn’t do the data from December, but if you just look at the data from 1/31/22, it is obvious that if you bought that day or the open of the next and followed your rules, selling at the next red candle, you would have lost $11 rather than made money as you have implied. In fact, there are two more buy signals before the high of $148 as you stated. All would have been losers following your rules.

My point is that you can mislead some with your comments. Yes, you absolutely can make money following Heikin-Ashi candles and rules, but primarily in strong trending stocks and times. Volatile times, such as now, make it difficult and frustrating as the signals appear too often. Folks not as familiar with such need to be aware. Folks must also remember to look at the actual price of the stock. So often the price gaps up or down and the HA candle, which starts at the average of the prior day candle, can make it look much better than it really is.

Look, you do well. I agree with the core of what and how you approach but stated cryptically it can confuse. I want anyone who looks at this stuff to really stop and take a look and think about it. They need to read more and understand the real situation. Maybe paper-trade to truly understand. I think a 9 year old could do it, with the right stock(s) at the right time and the right guidance. But just being told to buy the green and sell the red would more likely bankrupt their parents. IMO

LakeDog

4 Likes
8

Lake Dog,

Thanks for your hard work on this project. You did an excellent job.

NO one can trade another man’s system NO matter how good the system is, the borrower will screw it up sooner or later.

I would like you to add the True Strength Index to the bottom of the chart
TSI (16,8,4) by going to the study tab at the top and add it. The TSI is the confirmation.
Next add the Parabolic Time/Price (SAR) 20, 2
ParabolicSarShort - width - red
ParabaolicSarLong - width - green
Apply

If you want, just watch the SARS and they will match the TSI signals.

Now try that for exercise for Buying and Selling via the SARS.

https://schrts.co/ZPrpZRcJ for the long haul 13/50 chart.

Quill -

https://schrts.co/FneXKsHU this is supposedly the FOREVER BATTERY stock being raved about. 1000 miles on one charge,

Okay Nick, let’s have fun in trying to blow holes in it with the following I believe is bulletproof that I have made 8 digits with Apple since 2007 and SPXL since 2006 - 2014 and 2014 - 2022 via compounding.

Simon III and company will make you a wealthy person over time by learning Risk and Money Management skills.

See Simon Sez III below

re: Swing Trading
re: Stockcharts
re: Barchart
re: Price Label
re: 999 to 1000 percent batting average

So What Is Swing Trading?

Swing trading is the buying and selling of stocks all within the timeframe of a few days or several weeks. It’s a lot like day trading except the timeframe. After each buy and sell cycle, your slate is clean with no carry-over. It’s the opposite of passive, low-maintenance investing. Swing trading is active short-term investing because the “buy and hold” mantra does not apply.

Simon Sez III. “Wait-one bar” after Price label to Price label rule signal per Simon’s Werld® by Quillnpenn revised 12/1/2020.

Re: New ACP stock charts via Stockcharts.com for subscribers or nonsubscribers.
Re: RIOT
re: $ETHUSD daily
re: $ETHUSD 30 minute.

When a Price label appears to do the following:

1 ) For the TOP Price Label, we wait and wait until the next bar when the price drops below the high signal to SELL the stock to help protect your ASSets.

2 ) For the BOTTOM Price Label, we wait and wait until the next bar when the Price bar is rising upwards to BUY the stock.

For the very first time when viewing a chart, the default will appear, however, make some minor adjustments for a better view. When the Setup procedure is complete (see way below), the charts will always pop correctly thereafter.

3 ) Add the Stochastic RSI(14) to the bottom as an option.

The Stochastic RSI acts as our confirmation tool. Look to the right side of the Over Sold (pink area)crossing up and over the 0.20 line to buy the stock.

Cheat Sheet:

Class - Simon Sez III - Holy Grail

Holy Grail: “Something that people want very much, but which is very
difficult or impossible to achieve”.

Okay now for the Holy Grail part of having fun without really trying.
I believe we can make money with the aid of Simon. If NOT, you get detention for failing to read and review the two (2) simple rules.

The Rules:

Here are the following rules that I found so far broken into two (2)
parts. TOP and BOTTOM.

To SELL @

TOP: When you see the Price label = Wait-one bar rule applies to SELL to help protect your ASSets.

When you see the RED Candle, GREEN Candlestick BELOW the Price label (centered) = SELL immediately when it appears.

To BUY @

BOTTOM: When you see the Price label = Wait-one bar rule applies to BUY.

When you see the GREEN Candle, RED Candlestick ABOVE the Price label (Centered) = BUY immediately when it appears.

I am using the Daily and the 30-minute charts to make money faster. 4-hour chart for the cryptos all day long.

These charts are good for swing trading and for long-term investments such as the XL’s (xle, xlc, xlf, et., al) to hold and trade forever since 1999. Includes Dividends at the end of each QUARTER eg…3-6-9-12. Stocks must be bought before the ex-dividend date. NOT on, but before the date to get the dividend checks thereafter.

https://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/sector/xlk XLK - Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund.

https://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/sectors been swing trading the XL’s since January 1999 with a 999 to 1000 percent batting average.

These charts are perfect for Tetter Tottering via the MDP (Million Dollar Portfolio) eg…SPXL / SPXS : QQQ / PSQ.

The Teeter Totter Principle is all about using a “seesaw” to balance your Nest Egg’s cash and investments.

Note !

ACP stock charts: if a subscriber go to stockcharts.com otherwise the charts can’t be seen.

  1. Call up stock charts
  2. far left click on Charts & Tools
  3. enter ticker symbol where it says "StockChartsACP [new]
  4. enter DOCU which will show all of the rules that are used as an example. ZM will show an example of a loss on 11/09/20. We don’t care, just move on.
  5. clean the left side and clean the right side to show a Daily or 30-minute chart.

Use $SPX as a reference to show how the market is doing in comparison to your favourite chart.

How to set up the Stockcharts with the new ACP charts.

  1. Go stockcharts.com assuming you are now a paid subscriber. If not, you can use the Kwik Setup at the bottom.
  2. click on Charts & Tools
  3. enter a ticker symbol in the StockchartsACP [new]
  4. now we have to set up the bells and whistles to look like the sample charts. At the top insert the XLE ticker symbol to the right of the word Stockcharts.
  5. at the top is a high-lited blue icon.
  6. below the XLE ticker will be 3 lines to be added. 5 o’clock position.
  7. the first line is a type of chart. I have Heikin-Ash
  8. second line RSI (4) by selecting the RSI from the indicators below.
    8a. Click on the word RSI
  9. make cosmetic adjustments. The period should say 4
  10. Click on the rsi line to dark blue
  11. Click on overbought to blueish look at the sample.
  12. Click on the Oversold to red ish
  13. Close
  14. Next add StochasticRSI from the indicators pool
  15. Make cosmetic adjustments. The period should say 14
  16. Repeat the same colour patterns as above.
  17. Close
    17a. Go back to the top and click on the first line below the CHART SETTINGS, then go to the bottom and click on Up Color, change to Dark Green.
    17b. Close
  18. Click on the second icon from the top and then look for Murphy (default) for color schemes. At a later time, you can change to what you like.
  19. Click on the 4th icon from the top and the default should have a blue dot next to the word trendline.
  20. go back up to the first icon image.
  21. review all the settings colors starting with Henkin-Ashi, then RSI(4), then StochRSI (14).
  22. Done and now click on SAVE at the top black URL line.
  23. On the far right is more ICONs loaded with good information. You can monitor how my XL’s are doing by click on the Globe ICON and then Sector SPDR’s and then click on a ticker symbol.

Now, click on the Daily and play with other timetables. If not a subscriber, you won’t be able to see the different timetables. The 4 hours I use for trading $ETHUSD all day long.

For a Kwik set up as a nonsubscriber.

  1. Call up stock charts

  2. Click on charts & Tools

  3. Enter PYPL in the Stockcharts ACP [new] box as an example

  4. At the top black bar, I am currently using OHLCBARS and CANDLESTICKS

  5. Where it says PYPL - PayPal Holdings, Inc., click on the ICON to the left and then click on the sprocket wheel on the right.

  6. Near the bottom are other settings and make sure the Price Labels and Y-Asix Labels boxes are checked off

  7. Close

  8. Next, add StochRSI(14) indicators as a confirmation signal to buy the stock. The cyan at the top is for selling as it crosses below the 0.80 line.

  9. Make changes for the blue (cyan) and the pink on the bottom

  10. Click off the blue chart pattern icon off (top left-hand corner).

  11. Viggle the mouse back and forth for fun

  12. Click on CANDLESTICKS at the top to see what it looks like

  13. Next, add True Strength Index (TSI)

  14. Make changes to the period settings to 16,8,4.

  15. change colors for the TSI Line to Green, and Signal Line to Red.

  16. The TSI is a confirmation of the Price labels. Green crossing up and over the red line is a buy signal. The inverse for selling.

  17. Click on C L O S E.

Being FREE you can’t see the minute-by-minute charts in the Daily box at the top. The daily is the default.

For fun look at UBER Daily chart and see my progress with 1000 shares at each buy signal starting way back in November. Should see 6 1/2 successful trades at 1000 shares

Enjoy the successful journey that has been presented. Please take your time. This is a lifetime project of earning wealth.

Werks for me.

Quillnpenn -

9

Hi, swayzy.

Trying to figure out whether to trade before or after an earnings report is a form of market timing with predictably unpredictable results. Trying to figure out why the market moves the way it does is just plain pointless.

I like to say that investing is what you do between earnings reports. A strong report on past performance can still lead to a market drop because of questions about the future. And a strong forecast can outweigh negative numbers. And sometimes simply meeting expectations can be disappointing to the market, almost as if the market was looking for a reason to sell. It does not always make sense and is is usually irrelevant to Fools.

I don’t put much emphasis on quarterly earnings results. The companies in which I look to invest have sustainable competitive values that enable them to earn above-average returns for many years — and in some happy cases, decades. Evaluating these businesses’ performance over an arbitrary three-month period provides an incomplete picture of their future prospects.

But even though we measure our returns over multi-year periods, Fools should still look in on their companies each quarter for a couple reasons:

• Quarterly results can be used to benchmark a company’s performance relative to your long-term investment thesis.

• Sometimes events in a three-month period do affect a company’s long-term prospects.

I would argue that there is more value in reading management comments with the earnings release, as well as their prepared and responsive comments on earnings Q&A calls. You can get a picture of what the company wants analysts and shareholders to be thinking about, often get context for some of the earnings numbers, and sometimes you can gleam what management hopes you won’t focus on. And every now and then, some actual news slips out.

Fuskie
Who does not base buy or sell decisions solely on the anticipation or in response to an earnings report, but to use the information to provide context for the company’s operations and performance…

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