UPST - today's happy place

Happy for KC and other UPST longs, to be getting some relief from the long slide.
Curious if you are banking the pop and exiting or holding, and if the latter, do you have an exit target price in mind or just seeing how things go long-term?


I’m not very quick on my feet so I’m in it for the long haul unless something changes my mind. I rode it up and down now hopefully back up.


(I will reduce my position size if it gets to $200 or so.)

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I trimmed fairly heavily during the decline earlier. Given guidance for 2022, I’ll likely stay in. Auto, more banks, big numbers bode well to me.


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Curious if you are banking the pop and exiting or holding, and if the latter, do you have an exit target price in mind or just seeing how things go long-term

I trimmed. When I woke up and made my bleary eyed way to the computer I was preparing myself for the stock being down 50%. I was happy to see the +4% on the regular session. Did a little eye rubbing when I saw the stock up 31%. First reaction was SELL! But, at that point I knew nothing other than that the price was up a lot. So I sold a couple of percent as I navigated to the conference call. At this point I have sold 13%. UPST was sitting at 32.6% of the port. About a month ago I was contemplating 35%-35%-30% buckets of fintech, internet security/visibility, and OS software, with UPST being one of the 35%-ers. Never had the balls to get there, although UPST plus AFRM was at that level.

So my trimming was mostly reducing the portfolio concentration and partly thinking that the price maybe/probably had overshot the ultra-short-time price the market would give. I sold at $143.54, $137.55, $136.63, $136.63 and $134.50. It is at $135.29 as I type this.

The psychology is that the huge, ugly red gain/loss number on 1/24 when I bought more shares at $79.86—that number is now GREEN. My analytical side is still analyzing. I sensed some “cautious exuberance” in the conference call. Most positive, to me, was that the auto “funnel” looked just the same as what the personal loan funnel did two years ago. I sensed that the last analyst was digging really hard in order to cast negative on the auto loans–as in “what happens when used car prices revert to mean, isn’t that negative for defaults”.

My plan-at-the-moment is to hold. I still have a 1 to 2 year horizon on this stock as a major component of what I hope to be getting back to ATH. I have no idea how the market will value the stock, what multiple of what metric UPST will achieve. But I think the business will grow much larger. The question is, now that this position is green, do I still want 25+ percent invested in it?

Relieved, but no victory laps.



I bought more yesterday at $133 and $143. Don’t care what happens to the price today. This is a long term hold currently at 11.5% of my port.

If it gets too large of a position, I might trim. But have no plans to do so at this time.
I believe their runway for growth is very long.
We shall see.