a big ”thank you" to those who have published their stock holding with notes about why they like the company. Not surprisingly many of the same stocks show up over and over. I am primarily a New Paradigm Discontinuous Innovation Investor with a longer time span for holding than some here. But I still have most of the same stocks excluding home builders (not NPI) and drugs (swore off them, too unpredictable)
My largest holdings are SHOP,TSLA, NVDA, ANET. Some not always mentioned by others .are ALIGN, CGNX, and BOTZ ( an AI based ETF) . The reasons for holding these are fairly obvious. And I add mechanical timing to the mix when warranted . (No recent signals, it is still a bull) This timing is entirely market based, not stock specific, and is designed only to catch moves over 10%.
I have little to add to what has been posted. I follow Tesla closest of all since I own a model S
And AI, which I think is going to be very big very quickly. But it’s hard to to find winners this early.
re Tesla, last 3 owners I spoke to said exactly the same thing “I don’t think I will ever go back to a gas car”
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I have little to add to what has been posted. I follow Tesla closest of all since I own a model S
And AI, which I think is going to be very big very quickly. But it’s hard to to find winners this early.
re Tesla, last 3 owners I spoke to said exactly the same thing “I don’t think I will ever go back to a gas car”
Hi Mauser,
Regarding AI, that’s why I have a very big position in NVDA. I see them as a relatively low risk way to bet on AI because they are enabling it right now.
Regarding TLSA, there was a lot of discussion about that somewhat recently. The discussion overwhelmed the board so I won’t repeat it hear. I’d just point out that if you own a Telsa then try to objectively ask yourself if you have fallen in love with the company and by extension the stock. If you then think that maybe, just maybe, your judgment has been clouded regarding the certainly of the future of that company.
Chris
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No , owning a Tesla has just shown me what good product it is. As did owning an early iPhone. I made a lot of money on both. I assume you know about the Peter Lynch principle.
Anybody who has not spent time in a BEV is unlikely to know the full driving experience. EV are just better. And Teslas beat any other competitive car by over twenty percentage points in the “I would buy it again” category, a rather remarkable performance for any product. Possibly only beaten by the early iPhones
In fact being able to use the product and to speak to other users is very valuable. The same held true in the early 1980s when I owned one of the first PC and learned about MSFT and INTC. And with the Roomba and a few others over the years, though less profitable than the ones mentioned earlier
I have posted a lot about the difference between TSLA and Tesla. And in fact have said I am cutting back some on the TSLA for the short run.
I have always thought Tesla will win big or flop big. With the odds being 60% to 70% in favor of the former. If it flops TSLA will be bought out and I will lose most of my money. If it wins I could be in for a 2 or 3 bagger. Is NVDA safer? I don’t know, I must depend on others for real world evaluation of their products, Unlike Blanche DuBois I do not like to rely on the kindness of strangers. As we are doing with Nvidia. Whatever, I own both, somewhat more of NVDA at this time.
In fact you know nothing about whether my judgement has been clouded.
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Mauser,
No , owning a Tesla has just shown me what good product it is. As did owning an early iPhone. I made a lot of money on both. I assume you know about the Peter Lynch principle.
Anybody who has not spent time in a BEV is unlikely to know the full driving experience. EV are just better. And Teslas beat any other competitive car by over twenty percentage points in the “I would buy it again” category, a rather remarkable performance for any product. Possibly only beaten by the early iPhones
If you believe 1) autonomous car are coming fast, and 2) EV will quickly take share from ICE cars then I would consider the following concern:
Fewer people will need cars and the usable life of a car will increase. This means you have a market where the need for cars decreases (meaning that this will drive unit numbers sold down). That would concern me…a market of declining unit numbers.
I have always thought Tesla will win big or flop big. With the odds being 60% to 70% in favor of the former. If it flops TSLA will be bought out and I will lose most of my money. If it wins I could be in for a 2 or 3 bagger. Is NVDA safer?
Sounds like you understand the risks of own TLSA the stock. If you have an big win or big loss situation, then it is prudent to limit the allocation and shift more dollars to investments that you think have a either a higher chance of a big win and/or a low chance of a big loss [this in just my opinion so take it or leave it]. Personally, I think that NVDA is a lot more certain in this respect.
In fact you know nothing about whether my judgement has been clouded.
Sorry. Didn’t mean to offend you. I wasn’t suggesting that your judgment is or isn’t clouded…was more suggesting for you to self reflect…however, your last message tells me that you had already done that.
Chris
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Assume that L5 cars will reduce the number of cars needed. L5 is an unknown number of years off bur assume 6 years. Assume that it will show up on high priced cars first. Assume that non L5 cars will stay on the road for 20 years, thus reducing some of the impact of L5 If these are correct it will be a long time before autopilot really hits car sales. Assume BEV will be taking market share away from ICE. make one other obvious assumption ,that Tesla only needs 5% of today 's market (4 or 5 million cars per year) for TSLA to be a lot higher priced, Assume that a decade from now the new car market is half today’s size (unlikely), then Tesla’s 5% share would still be 2.5 million cars a year.
I know, lots of assumptions. Bur all of these are guess work at this point.
I for one will not be giving up my personal car. TaaS is available now, called taxi, buses, and Uber. People mostly still prefer their own car. So do I.
Autopilot L5 cars do the same things as Uber does now, just does it cheaper. Maybe it is just lack of imagination but off hand I can not think of any major consumer field in the US where rental dominates. Even housing, and cars are lots cheaper than houses. Or devices seldom used like power tools and boats. In fact it has been years since I rented any powered device , the last being a rental car at an airport.
If L5 starts impacting car sales we will have warning. And by then it almost certainly will be impacting ICE more than BEV, because by that point BEV will not only be better but cheaper too. Considering the owner satisfaction I think it is highly likely Tesla will be selling more cars.
NVDA is hardly free of risk. We are talking about a very high priced stock not the company , and the company is mainly a chip maker. If I could be sure of outcomes I would only own one stock. But lack of surety is part of the price we pay to invest. Which is why I indeed limit my allocations to all individual stocks. OTOH there is sector risk, high tech risk, and I limit myself here only by holding some cash.
Agree that Nvidia the company has a low chance of a big collapse, not so sure about NVDA the stock.
BTW I am now into my 28th year of supporting myself almost entirely from the stock market…
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Hey Mauser,
I agree with much of what you say, and have the same allocation to TSLA and NVDA. I am more bullish in the long term for TSLA, as I think TSLA will ride on the BEV boom for most of the transition from ICE, and has potential for far more than 5M cars per year in the long term. By “long” I mean however long it takes for BEV to be about 60-70% of the car sales, which may happen faster than most believe is possible.
Besides, there will be a new market for BEVs on Mars.
Enjoy,
Brian
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Car market leaders today VW and Toyota were new entrants at one time. Each sells more than 10 million cars a year now. So yes it can be done, zero to 10 million. But not in 2.9 seconds…
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I have always thought Tesla will win big or flop big. With the odds being 60% to 70% in favor of the former
Thanks for your posts mauser . I too own TSLA . It’s my largest position . I have strong conviction that Tesla will be successful going forward and TSLA shares will rise .
Is there risk ? Of course . But Musk will continue to execute his master plan :
The first master plan that I wrote 10 years ago is now in the final stages of completion. It wasn’t all that complicated and basically consisted of :
- Create a low volume car, which would necessarily be expensive
- Use that money to develop a medium volume car at a lower price
- Use that money to create an affordable, high volume car
And…
- Provide solar power. No kidding, this has literally been on our website for 10 years.
https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux
I have added more shares every time TSLA has gone down over the last 3 years , including this time ( TSLA down 12% over the last 11 days or so ). As a result , my Tesla position up 111 % even though TSLA stock is only up 34% over that same period . 111% is maybe not all that great over 3 years compared to some of the Saul stocks , but I’ll take it . long term results are what I am looking for with Tesla and part 3 of Musk’s plan is being executed as I speak . Meanwhile , my overall portfolio , including some Saul stocks is up 41.5% over the last 12 months and I’ll take that too .
As always , time will tell. If i’m wrong about Tesla I lose , If i’m right I win big . I have never owned any other stock with the conviction level that I have for Tesla and Elon Musk’s vision and leadership.
On a different subject , as I watch the news today and I think of the victims and their families , the risk reward considerations of the stocks that I own and sometimes fret about just seems totally unimportant.
Best to all,
Frank
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