Possibly Definitive

The following statements, I believe, are not contradictory, and true.

  1. Things got cheaper.
  2. Many things are still expensive.
  3. Stuff may go up from here.
  4. Ultimately I think we still have further to capitulate.
  5. 2020 was a fluke and excessive returns generated not by fundamentals, but by once-in-generation pandemic that led to Fed easing.
  6. The Fed always matters.
  7. Timing does matter. (see 1999 vs 2000-2002, 2006 vs 2008-2009, July 2019 vs March 2020, Nov 2021 vs Jan 2022)
  8. I don’t have a crystal ball in actuality
  9. I think I have a spidey sense
  10. I am just a guy on the internet

Mixing all that in a ball and adding olive oil, baking it at 400 for 3 hours, and then throwing it all away, you are left with your own thoughts. And I think I will let my 401k ride in what I think are decent LTBH levels on PTLO, SPG, and GLBE. However, I think I may be able to buy all, and others, greatly lower throughout the coming weeks and perhaps 1H of 2022. I wanted a smoother simpler year focused on fundamentals, but I don’t think we get that until Fed is all tucked away in bed and market focuses on non-Fed stuff again. Not sure when that will be.