Another huge month, almost 20% up which has me wondering when the music will stop. My stock-only portfolio is now up 70% on the year which I’m very happy with and ahead of where I’ve been the past 2 years, where I ended at almost exactly +70%. Also considering my long call options, my full portfolio is up 110% which I’m ecstatic about.
I was up almost 30% on the month up until about 10 days ago, when something spooked the market in a major way towards both Upstart and Pagaya. This could be macro related or related to some reports I’ve seen in growing loan defaults broadly but not specifically related to these companies. They both have fallen around 30% since Sept. 18th. I’m seeing this as a buying-opportunity, especially for Pagaya, which has shown resiliency and the ability to take on higher quality loans as they’d like. During the month I trimmed Pagaya when they got too large, but actually added some back yesterday. On Upstart I will wait and see. There is certainly reason to be concerned that the credit market could start to crack for a large swatch of Americans who have not benefitted from the current economy. But I prefer to follow the numbers (earnings) instead of making assumptions based on the news cycle which is increasingly purposefully volatile.
This month I reaped the benefits of rebalancing my portfolio after the last earnings season, and this is something I may continue to do every quarter. The big gainers were able to more than offset a couple big losers.
I’m interested in the battery company conversation on the board but haven’t been able to justify moving out of any current positions until next earnings or until I come across some cash. None of the numbers seem to suggest urgent action. Some of the conversations on this board are just so damn technical, I can’t really follow. I prefer to follow a generally compelling trend and numbers that back it up. Whether those numbers are due to better marketing or some sort of superior tech I don’t understand, is somewhat distracting to me. Plenty of great tech has failed, and plenty of great marketing has produced amazing companies.
With very little company news that hasn’t been covered in great detail on the board - that’s it from me! Best of luck in October, may the good times roll!
Here are my results to date and current portfolio:
JAN: -2.42%
FEB: -1.15%
MAR: -20.60%
APR: +7.91%
MAY: +24.92
JUN: +11.48%
JUL: +17.66%
AUG: +12.85%
SEP: +19.52
YTD: +70.01%
