Putin's Grand Eurasianism Theory

Westerners swim in our Enlightenment-based grand theory of personal freedom, the rule of law and free-market capitalism like a fish swims in water. We are so imbued with these principles that it can be difficult to understand a competing grand theory that has little in common. Assuming that an adversary will feel that his self-interest will coincide with what we would consider self-interest can lead to radical mistakes.

For example, Russia is being subjected to financially ruinous sanctions which would be very disruptive in the West. However, given Russia’s history of autocracy and violence these sanctions may be almost meaningless.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/22/opinion/russia-ukraine-pu…

**The Grand Theory Driving Putin to War**
**By Jane Burbank, The New York Times, March 22, 2022**
**Dr. Burbank is a professor of Russian history, recently retired from New York University.**

**...**
**To understand the war in Ukraine, we must go beyond the political projects of Western leaders and Mr. Putin’s psyche. The ardor and content of Mr. Putin’s declarations are not new or unique to him. Since the 1990s, plans to reunite Ukraine and other post-Soviet states into a transcontinental superpower have been brewing in Russia. A revitalized theory of Eurasian empire informs Mr. Putin’s every move....**

**Emerging from the collapse of the Russian Empire in 1917, Eurasianism posited Russia as a Eurasian polity formed by a deep history of cultural exchanges among people of Turkic, Slavic, Mongol and other Asian origins. ... Eurasian geopolitics, Russian Orthodoxy and traditional values — these goals shaped Russia’s self-image under Mr. Putin’s leadership...Ukrainian sovereignty presented a “huge danger to all of Eurasia.” Total military and political control of the whole north coast of the Black Sea was an “absolute imperative” of Russian geopolitics....**

**This brew of attitudes — complaints about Western aggression, exaltation of traditional values over the decadence of individual rights, assertions of Russia’s duty to unite Eurasia and subordinate Ukraine — developed in the cauldron of post-imperial resentment. Now they infuse Mr. Putin’s worldview and inspire his brutal war.**

**The goal, plainly, is empire. And the line will not be drawn at Ukraine.** [end quote]

A pre-existing grand theory of Eurasianism is far more dangerous than Putin’s simple autocracy, just as pre-existing theories of “racial purity” became extremely dangerous in Hitler’s strategy. Several NATO countries, including Poland, the Baltic States, Czech Republic, etc. are ethnically Slavic and once belonged to the Russian Empire.

The NATO alliance and China will both be threatened by a Russia impelled by a theory to regain superpower status by conquering free nations around it.

As investors, we need to be aware that the world economic situation can deteriorate suddenly and rapidly. Not to mention the threat of nuclear war.

Wendy

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The NATO alliance and China will both be threatened by a Russia impelled by a theory to regain superpower status by conquering free nations around it.

Is it ‚Russia‘, or a rather small rogue clique who can‘t deal well with empire amputation pain, and wants to pursue their wild dream of a united Europe taken by force, under Russian leadership? If the latter, and the indications point towards it, let‘s hope we can get rid of them sooner than later.

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<Is it ‚Russia‘, or a rather small rogue clique>

The same could be said of Stalin. They imprison or kill anyone in Russia who disagrees.
Wedy

The NATO alliance and China will both be threatened by a Russia impelled by a theory to regain superpower status by conquering free nations around it.

They can’t de a superpower with a Russia sized economy, at most they can aspire to be a superPITA.

The Captain

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However, given Russia’s history of autocracy and violence these sanctions may be almost meaningless.

The last Czar made that mistake not taking care of the economy for most people.

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Does that sound like Manifest Destiny?

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Emerging from the collapse of the Russian Empire in 1917, Eurasianism posited Russia as a Eurasian polity formed by a deep history of cultural exchanges among people of Turkic, Slavic, Mongol and other Asian origins. … Eurasian geopolitics, Russian Orthodoxy and traditional values — these goals shaped Russia’s self-image under Mr. Putin’s leadership…Ukrainian sovereignty presented a “huge danger to all of Eurasia.” Total military and political control of the whole north coast of the Black Sea was an “absolute imperative” of Russian geopolitics…

This brew of attitudes — complaints about Western aggression, exaltation of traditional values over the decadence of individual rights, assertions of Russia’s duty to unite Eurasia and subordinate Ukraine — developed in the cauldron of post-imperial resentment. Now they infuse Mr. Putin’s worldview and inspire his brutal war.

The goal, plainly, is empire. And the line will not be drawn at Ukraine.

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This just the old song about Putin seeking Empire. It is a joke to think Russia could be an empire. Russia has smaller economy than Canada. And for that matter an economy that is based on fossil fuels.

Putin is just crazy. Stop attributing any reason, logic or sense to these grand dreams of Empire.

Jaak

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They can’t de a superpower with a Russia sized economy, at most they can aspire to be a superPITA.

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Yes Russia is a SuperPITA, in the same class as North Korea except it is bigger and has fossil fuels. That all folks!

Jaak

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Several NATO countries, including Poland, the Baltic States, Czech Republic, etc. are ethnically Slavic and once belonged to the Russian Empire.

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Wrong! Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are not Slavic.

Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia are Slavic.

Jaak

As investors, we need to be aware that the world economic situation can deteriorate suddenly and rapidly. Not to mention the threat of nuclear war.

Wendy

As investors? Not to mention nuclear war?

Prior to NW, we might have some plans of action. I can see some of them getting quite ‘creative’.

But, for the big NW?

Enjoy ourselves, it’s later than we think.

To all the folks who you need to send love and criticism. Do it.

That’s always been the problem with the M.A.D. strategy. It is so… final…

There is no Plan B.

(Thinking that it can be just these ‘little’ tactical Nuke thingies is hopeless fantasy.)

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Putin is just crazy.

Shrinks would say do not stigmatize the innocent folks with problems. Putin is a criminal, he is not crazy.

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The catch is, Putin’s theory is a very nice explanation of why Ukraine should be allowed to take over most of southwestern Russia while Lithuania seizes control of the northwestern part and turns Moscow into a provincial capital.

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According to Wikipedia, here are some other places Russia has settled. Maybe Putin will claim them.

Russian settlements in North America[edit]

New Archangel (present-day Sitka, Alaska), the capital of Russian America, in 1837
Unalaska, Alaska – 1774
Three Saints Bay, Alaska – 1784
Fort St. George in Kasilof, Alaska – 1786
St. Paul, Alaska – 1788
Fort St. Nicholas in Kenai, Alaska – 1791
Pavlovskaya, Alaska (now Kodiak) – 1791
Fort Saints Constantine and Helen on Nuchek Island, Alaska – 1793
Fort on Hinchinbrook Island, Alaska – 1793
New Russia near present-day Yakutat, Alaska – 1796
Redoubt St. Archangel Michael, Alaska near Sitka – 1799
Novo-Arkhangelsk, Alaska (now Sitka) – 1804
Fort Ross, California – 1812
Fort Elizabeth near Waimea, Kaua'i, Hawai'i – 1817
Fort Alexander near Hanalei, Kaua'i, Hawai'i – 1817
Fort Barclay-de-Tolly near Hanalei, Kaua'i, Hawai'i – 1817
Fort (New) Alexandrovsk at Bristol Bay, Alaska – 1819
Redoubt St. Michael, Alaska – 1833
Nulato, Alaska – 1834
Redoubt St. Dionysius in present-day Wrangell, Alaska (now Fort Stikine) – 1834
Pokrovskaya Mission, Alaska – 1837
Kolmakov Redoubt, Alaska – 1844

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Uhhmmm, jaak, you rarely make this type of mistake and I am surprised at you!

Hungary is not Slavic, neither in language nor culture. Its language is of the Ugric group thought to have originated in Siberia. Its culture is nomadic Turkic overlaid with European influences that were mostly German.

They are almost as strange as their far distant linguistic cousins the Finns…

david fb

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This brew of attitudes — complaints about Western aggression, exaltation of traditional values over the decadence of individual rights, assertions of Russia’s duty to unite Eurasia and subordinate Ukraine — developed in the cauldron of post-imperial resentment. Now they infuse Mr. Putin’s worldview and inspire his brutal war.

I’m sick of these pieces which try to intellectualize Putin’s motivations. They aren’t exactly Russian propaganda, but they serve a similar purpose–to make it seem like Putin has some grand (perhaps even noble) motivation. The reality is that he’s simply a tyrant who sells these stories to his people to make them buy the idea that they are a “great empire.” It’s a convenient line of BS for him when, like Hitler, he just wants the power and the land.

As investors, we need to be aware that the world economic situation can deteriorate suddenly and rapidly. Not to mention the threat of nuclear war.

I’m not doing anything to protect my portfolio against WWIII. If it happens, I suspect everything goes to zero–including my life–and so there is no need to worry about it.

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Is it ‚Russia‘, or a rather small rogue clique who can‘t deal well with empire amputation pain, and wants to pursue their wild dream of a united Europe taken by force, under Russian leadership? If the latter, and the indications point towards it, let‘s hope we can get rid of them sooner than later.

Which brings up the question, what are the chances that Putin would be replaced by a more malign leader?

DB2

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Which brings up the question, what are the chances that Putin would be replaced by a more malign leader?

I think Europe and the West are willing to roll the dice on this one.

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I’m not doing anything to protect my portfolio against WWIII. If it happens, I suspect everything goes to zero–including my life–and so there is no need to worry about it.

Why worry about something you can do nothing about? I see no reason to change my investment thesis and strategy.

Tesla opened Giga Berlin yesterday. Elon Musk is sending StarLink terminals and Tesla PowerWalls to Ukraine to reconnect the Internet and Ukrainians who return home to fight retain their employment and up to three months pay.

Defensive weapons are pouring into Ukraine much faster than Russia can resupply their own forces. I just hope Russians are smart enough not to use nuclear weapons.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy is a LEGEND in the making.

The Captain

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Which brings up the question, what are the chances that Putin would be replaced by a more malign leader?

The world is better off rolling those dice.

I have little doubt this is true. We’ve seen it from despots over and over again, there is always a longing for “the better times”, even if they weren’t actually better for most of the inhabitants. (Memory is a funny thing; the past tends to get a warmish halo, hence the popularity of nostalgia and oldies stations.)

Hitler, it will be remembered, promised the Third Reich. Mussolini invoked the greatness of Ancient Rome to rally his country (never mind that a significant number of people then were slaves.) A certain politician called to “Make America Great Again”, harkening back to the days of? Racial segregation? World War? Disco? What?

Winston Churchill tried to manage the Allies’ strategies in World War II so as to protect the British Empire and make it easier to reconstitute after the war. (Roosevelt wasn’t having it.)

It’s fairly easy to rally people on the basis of “former empire” because it’s already a cultural touchstone, there isn’t a lot of explaining necessary, you don’t need to go through the gyrations of ginning up support the way the US did for the invasion of Iraq at the turn of the century. Whether all of that is important to Putin or whether he is just using it as a convenient tool I wouldn’t hazard a guess, but I’m sure it played a part in his thinking.

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