**This Is How World War III Begins** **by Bret Stephens, The New York Times, March 15, 2022**
**...** **The point is, World War II didn’t so much begin as it gathered, like water rising until it breaches a dam. We, too, have been living through years of rising waters, though it took Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for much of the world to notice.**
**Before the invasion, we had the Russian invasions of Georgia, Crimea and eastern Ukraine; the Russian carpet bombing of Aleppo; the use of exotic radioactive and chemical agents against Russian dissidents on British soil; Russian interference in U.S. elections and massive hacks of our computer networks; the murder of Boris Nemtsov and the blatant poisoning and imprisonment of Alexei Navalny....**
**Contrary to the claim that Putin’s behavior is a result of Western provocation — like refusing to absolutely rule out eventual NATO membership for Ukraine — the West has mainly spent 22 years placating Putin through a long cycle of resets and wrist slaps. ..**
**Bottom line: Expect Putin to double down. ... How does the next world war begin? The same way the last one did.** [end quote]
In the 1960s, they used to say, “One atom bomb can ruin your whole day.”
This article makes a clear analogy between Hitler’s step-by-step approach to World War 2 and Putin’s step-by-step approach to World War 3.
Did you see the two hour Frontline show on the rise of Putin after the Berlin wall came down and Soviet Union collapsed and how he consolidated his power over Russia in the last 22 years.
The Frontline presentation is first class. It shows how he created with the FSB the massive explosions in several huge apartment buildings in Moskva and blamed it on Chechens so that he could mobilize military to devastate the Chechens in brutal invasion with extensive bombings. This made him a hero to the Russian people and secured his election as President.
Frontline explains how the corrupt government system works to enrich himself and the people around him. Too much to explain in one post. I highly recommend watching Frontline presentation.
This article rings true. I’m seriously frightened. Maybe I’m just a little old lady who scares easily…but this scenario seems ominous.
I am more like Dr. Strangelove. I have stopped worrying and even if perhaps I don’t love the bomb, I am embracing the fact that nuclear annihilation will either happen or it won’t. If it happens, no investment strategy is going to be worth a hill of beans, so I’m just trying to stay invested in good, growing businesses.
As for Putin, he needs to be stopped. The good news is that his invasion has “woken up” the West and we are no longer placating him. Let’s just hope that NATO and the State Department make the right moves from here.
I would remind you that, in this context, China is still the deal maker. They can either save or ruin Russia at this point. They crave a final solution to the “Taiwan Problem” and are both carefully watching how the US and its allies react and deal with Russia.
In Europe, the US is being careful to maintain its part in a NATO context, rather than barging ahead on its own. In the Pacific, it’s allies are far weaker and more diffuse - Japan, Korea, Australia and the Philippines - and our supply lines much longer, in any action to save Taiwan from overt Chinese aggression, and the US would be more likely to take a more dangerous (from the standpoint of WW3 or WW4) position.
What is a radioactive dollar worth? Nothing! The same holds true for everything else. Yes, I’ll have that latte with a shot of Cesium.
Does the phrase Mutally Assured Destruction ring a bell? If there was a nuclear war the value of your portfolio would be the least of your worries.
We have already had the discussion of the similarities between the tactics of Hilter and Putin so the author of this article is a little late to the table.
This article rings true. I’m seriously frightened. Maybe I’m just a little old lady who scares easily…but this scenario seems ominous.
It absolutely rings true. Question we need to ask ourselves: Is there anything WE can do about it? Yes or no? Realistic answers only, please. It only has to be to yourself. No need to share.
Then, looking at possible outcomes:
A. Putin IS that nutz. His Kremlin lunchmates are too intimidated to dress him in his white sports coat with the straps on the sleeves. Stupid Putin goes ahead. He DOES press the Red Button. It is over. Done and done. None of us, or the rest of the rest of this Earth for that matter, have any further worries. Finis.
OR
B. Putin IS dressed in his white sports coat with the straps on the sleeves. It is over, FOR HIM. For everyone who spotted their favorite investment(s) that could be had at 30%, 40%, or 50% discount, they’ll reap great returns.
Time for that bromide about “the time to jump in is when there is blood running in the streets”. Some of “us” will wonder: Yeah, but how much further to the bottom? And, how far out will be the upturn? Time to polish off the crystal ball we all have in the bottom drawer of our desks.
If China doesn’t do it, the USA ultimately will … and China will be shunned … your move Mr Xi …
Interesting and in an old chess game totally true.
I think Putin only keeps his own counsel. I think he will rebuff Xi. The reason Putin is seeing this as a once in a life time opportunity. Kind of hard for any of us to comprehend that mindset? Yep. But here we are.
Remember in all the Mafia type chess board styled games etc…most of the members get killed. You only play Monopoly to see people lose everything. Xi can not change that.
This article rings true. I’m seriously frightened. Maybe I’m just a little old lady who scares easily…but this scenario seems ominous.
History doesn’t repeat, but historians do.
I don’t have a subscription to the NYT so I couldn’t read the article. But Putin, evil as he is, is no Hitler.
Personally, I’d much rather have a war using currency than have a war using nuclear weapons.
Putin might be a tough guy when it comes to bombing pregnant women and children, but I suspect he knows his military is broken. The Russian government is rife with corruption and its military is no different. If the report that Putin had to grovel before the Chinese begging for military equipment is true, then wow. That speaks volumes.
The damage Putin is causing is real, heartbreaking, and horrible. And in war, anything can happen. But I really don’t think this will lead to WW III. Thank God for cooler heads in NATO.
In poker, you don’t play the cards as much as you play your opponents. We got dealt a very crummy hand, but it’s being played as well as possible.
Anyway, I hope I’m better at current events than I am at picking stocks. LOL
If you have already shown your hand to your opponent, i.e. we won’t give jets, we won’t escalate, we won’t etc., then you have already lost the pot.
The US and Russia have never gone head to head, since they both obtained nukes. I was wondering who could give Ukraine a hand without involving NATO. Pretty short list: Sweden, Finland, and Moldova, or go to the other side of the world for non-nuclear, non-NATO members, Japan, Australia, New Zealand. South Korea.
Of course, the US has gotten itself into wars on it’s own, without NATO. Would it be credible for Poland, Czech Republic, maybe even Hungary, to loudly, clearly, and frequently, say they are engaging, not as NATO members, but as fellow states that have rid themselves of Moscow’s domination, and only engage in Ukraine, not from home bases? Sort of the posture the US took in Korea: fighting ChiCom troops in Korea, but not venturing into China itself.
Speaking of Hungary, the war has shone a very bright light on Orban’s coziness with Putin, and elections are April 3rd.
Russia’s war in Ukraine dominates Hungary’s election campaign
Orban warned his supporters that they face a choice between “a pro-peace right or pro-war left”.
Orban insists Hungary will neither reduce its Russian energy reliance nor allow weapons heading for Ukraine to transit its territory.
The opposition was quick to catch on. Its main campaign strategy is now to turn the election into a referendum on whether Hungary should head East or West, and therefore on Orban’s 12-year courtship of a Russian president now reviled as a war criminal and despot across much of Europe, if not the world.
Peter Marki-Zay, the prime ministerial candidate for the six-party united opposition that is posing Orban his first domestic political challenge in more than 10 years, spoke of “a single historic choice: to choose Europe over the East, freedom over tyranny”…“Orban and Putin or the West and Europe – these are the stakes. A choice between the dark or the good side of history,” Marki-Zay said.
“Orban and Putin or the West and Europe – these are the stakes. A choice between the dark or the good side of history,” Marki-Zay said.
Does the no-politics rule on METAR apply to Hungarian politics?
More seriously, right after the invasion, my son asked me if Hungary was on Ukraine’s side. I said, “I think they’re going to have to make a choice very soon.”
Orban is trying to thread a needle–saying he is opposed to the invasion, but not completely renouncing Putin/Russia. The anti-refugee strongman routine worked pretty well when the refugees were Syrian. It won’t work so well against neighbors who have a lot of cultural similarities.
I hope Orban loses. Europe will be better without him.
I checked in with those 13 Hungarian friends for whom I have email addresses: 3 jazz musicians, 5 mathematicians/programmers/engineer types, 2 (ancient) retired farmers, 2 artists, and 2 gay sex workers political activists, and they are all anti-Putin and more or less anti Orban. The ancient farming couple complain that one of their grandsons in pro-Putin because “he is an ignorant angry braying ass.”
I love Hungary, have detested Orban since he came on the scene long ago, and am hoping the united opposition pulls this off. It would be a huge victory over Putinism…
Putin is a great student of history and so far has made all the correct moves to achieve his aims.
I’m not so sure. His aim is to install a puppet government in Ukraine. His plan clearly was to capture the capital and major cities. Three weeks in, he has accomplished none of those things and it seems increasingly likely he never will. He made a major tactical blunder in attacking on six axis at once. None of those thrusts were strong enough to get very far and now the invasion seems to be nearly stalled. His strategy appears to be based primarily on wishful thinking.
This site documents vehicle losses by both sides, based on either photo or video evidence. In other words, they only count stuff they have pictures of. Russia has lost a lot of equipment:
U.S. estimates that 7,000 Russian troops have been killed. I’m skeptical how accurate that is, but supposedly that is a conservative estimate and maybe triple that number wounded. Russia simply cannot sustain that loss rate for another three weeks.
And of course another factor is money. War is expensive. I don’t know Russia’s financial picture, but Putin cannot sustain this level of conflict indefinitely. In the meantime, Ukraine is being re-supplied by the West at a furious rate. I wouldn’t count Russia out militarily, but this operation did not go according to plan.
On the homefront, Russians seem to be backing Putin, but the economic sanctions will take their toll eventually. I don’t know how all this turns out, but Putin clearly overplayed his hand. And WWIII hasn’t start yet either.