Just a bunch of resets to start the new quarter. HIMS back in taxable ac. There is already a Roth ac position in HIMS. In Roth ac, nibble in QCOM. Then, an exit of most of the IREN position in the name. While I was in clean-up mode, decided to trim small stake in PGY (taxable ac). [edit: PGY was an exit]. Big tech names have been bouncing around, including our trillion dollar entrant - SPCX. While I might eventually nibble on SPCX, I think some of the other space related names might have more upside e.g. RDW or RKLB. The latter snapped up Iridium.
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If one is a soccer fan, among the Big events is, of course, the knock-out stage of the World Cup tournament. Already a whole series of big names already upset. So big events have already occurred. There is the other Big event, the one occurring in the Starit of Hormuz. There was a ceasefire for slightly over a week, but the world is back to watching with anxiety as attacks on vessels and territory resuming. Well, I guess, if looking for positives, at least some loaded tankers with LPG, refined products, and crude oil did manage to make it out. And likewise, some empty tankers made it in to load. With the situation escalated again, who knows how long the world waits for another set of vessels to make outbound trips.
Trading has slowed down significantly. However, there’s been some transactions.
- More DHT in taxable ac
- On small bounce, closed out GSL in taxable ac
- Roth ac nibble on RDW
- Taxable ac nibble on RDW
- Taxable ac nibble in RKLB
07/09 - 07/17
A bunch of Big events on the World Cup front has whittled down the teams to the last two, who meet on Sun Jul 19. Having returned from a work trip in OH, there’s some bad air in the Mid-west and North-East regions of the US. The short lived Strait of Hormuz ceasefire is now over, with some attacks of vessels. Plus. US bombing of Iran targets now resumed. In general, public shipping-related names have held up well. Not so. of the tech side. There has been an ugly slide there. Among the transactions
- Nibble in new idea PLBL (Taxable ac)
- Another CELH nibble (Taxable ac)
- Another AMAT nibble (Taxable ac)
- Another GSM nibble (Roth ac)
- Another DHT nibble (Roth ac)
- Debating initially, but final decision, closed out VERI (Taxable ac)
- More MAAS in Roth ac
- More QCOM in Roth ac
Though in the plus side for gains, early sells of Roth QCOM @ $180s were initially not looking too good. I mean QCOM shares zoomed up shortly thereafter to the $200 level, then $210s. Not done, price kept rising to the $230s. Locked more Roth ac share gains. That’s the “fantastic” move. Shares now in the $160s. Have nibbled on more QCOM in the Roth ac.
But, the tech beatdown also means the chance to shop for names with possible upside e.g. VSH (Down from the highs of mid-$50s, and now back to the levels where I exited last VSH position in the mid-30s). If one still thinks the neo Clouds have potential - EQIX, IREN, NBIS be back-on-the-radar. The IREN selling in Roth ac seems quite good (great for IREN shares sold in the $60s).
Chinese based tech play MAAS might become a possible “trading fish”. Initial thoughts were locking in gains in Roth ac. Let me figure that move out first, Then figure if I want to try the move in taxable ac. The VERI expunge is a significant loss, and gives me that flexibility.
07/20 - 07/24
Summer is somewhat quiet.
- VSH found its way back into port - taxable ac nibble
- Opted on another RDW nibble
- Back in late May & early June, had opted to trim COHR position in Roth ac @ $350 - $390-ish. This week, there took the opportunity to rebuild. While COHR’s price continued to drop, still like the discount from the exit price.
- Slumping SFM? Opted for another bite (taxable ac)
- Retreating NBIS - another nibble in Roth ac
Turn of events in Middle East keeps the shipping names keeps the shipping names at elevated levels. Somewhat reluctant to chase. DHT is now black and have already indicated some Q2 numbers. Most of the other shipping names I track seem slightly ahead of fair price, so I will just wait.
07/27 - 07/31
As the month closed out, this item caught me a little off-guard - collapse of hedge fund Situational Awareness. The founder, Leopold Aschenbrenner, sounds like a cocky, arrogant guy. Might be smart, but obviously did NOT do a good job on probability outcomes. Who does a 4X long-short bet with billions at stake? Apparently, one very overconfident investing rookie
A few trades, generally, just focused on existing ideas.
- Another nibble on PLBL in taxable ac
- Another nibble on RDW in taxable ac
- FRO nibble in Roth ac
- NBIS nibble in taxable aqc
- NBIS nibble in Roth ac
- HIMS nibble in Roth ac
- COHR nibble in Roth ac
- TRMD nibble in Roth ac
- IREN nibble in Roth ac
When QCOM crossed back over $200/sh, the two trims around $180-ish looked bad. With QCOM now below $150/sh, those two Roth ac trims look pretty decent outcomes. Shipping basket M-o-M gains were huge. Probably mainly due to BWLP and INSW.
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08/03 - 08/05
First half of the week saw me nibble on existing shipping names. So nibbles on TRMD and DHT in taxable ac, FRO and INSW in Roth ac. Then some RKLB in Roth ac, and restart on HAFN in taxable, NBIS nibble in Roth ac, more WU in Roth ac.
Per the NY Times article, it seems Situational Awareness Hedge Fund still exists, but only holds private companies (likely private AI names). I wonder if the fund had SpaceX (either pre-IPO or post IPO. Or both?). In any case, and not that I needed a major reminder, leverage changes risk situation. Then bumping it up 2X, or 3X, or 4X (in the Situational Awareness case) really adds major fuel to the fire.
08/07 Ugh! Some of my retail related ideas being clobbered this week. First BROS, then CELH. Somewhat ironic, both liquids related. BROS is a Top 10 holding, so the price hit is more impactful. The company beat rev and earnings, but still got slapped down. AI says “same store growth” and “growth costs” are some of the reasons for the price drop. Might poke a little more before making decision on adding. With CELH, I guess some similar characteristics. Rev growth, but not as high as expected. Smaller position and negative overall, prior to results - decided to add to stake in Roth ac. On the plus side, another smaller holding, GSM, delivered a more positive outlook. Shares bounced. Lower margins, but this company has done a lot to clean up internal operations and their debt position. Even with the bounce, I think GSM is still undervalued.
Week ending 08/14
Somewhat quiet, but still some activity across the accounts
- VSH nibble in taxable ac
- ALOY trim in taxable ac
- BROS nibble in Roth ac
- Talked myself into INSW nibble in Roth ac
- Another INSW nibble in Roth ac
- CPNG nibble in taxable ac
- Trimmed MAAS in Roth ac. Timely, as MAAS plunged one or two days later.
- DHT nibble in Roth ac
INSW’s VLCC rates were actually higher. This was not apparent in the reported numbers because some of the VLCC earnings was profit-share (Their 3 newer VLCC are on TCs with a profit-share feature). Nice turnaround on INSW’s share price.
08/17 Call it a big egg. Decided to realize the UMWC losses in the taxable ac. Share count limits had me complete the event in two transactions. Don’t have to do so, but I will likely monetize on some other ideas in the next month or two. UMWC is short-term losses, so I would like to offset with short term gains. Generally, that would be from an idea that is a smaller stake. But, a choppy tech name e,g, NBIS, might also work.
DHT went ex-div today. Price recovered some of the payout. Getting antsy waiting for other shipping companies e.g. BWLP, TRMD or FRO to report.
There was another article on Situational Awareness.
This one somewhat misses the boat. It wasn’t the fact that Leopold had 56% in two holdings. It was the fact that it was a levered port AND he also tried a long-short and both a major long bet and a major short bet went against him.
08/19 FLNG announced results earlier in the day. Confirmed improved outlook with increased rev and TCE rate vs Q1 2026. The third dry dock occurred in Q2, and that’s it dry dock activity in 2026, and none scheduled for 2027. LNG spot market is in the dumps. but FLNG suggest their two spot trading vessels are available towards the end of the quarter. Though I had significant whacks to some tech names, a handful of other names helped lift the overall port e.g. BROS, CELH, FLNG, HIMS
08/24 Some angst has disturbed my mood. Just a bunch of uncoordinated events. Trimmed CELH, add to VSH, AMD nibble (all Roth ac), HRL trim (taxable ac). The DHT div accrued in Roth and taxable ac