Cautiously into Q2 2024

04/01
Mood has shifted as the market enters Q2 2024, as I’m not as excited as I was in Jan 2024. The mood shift started about two weeks ago. Now, I feel many ideas seem fairly valued, or perhaps, slightly ahead of where they should be trading.
Today

  1. I was going to buy more LPG (as a “replacement shares” case), but LPG decided to bounce out-the-gate … never mind.
  2. Was going to add to GCT - shares bounced even more than LPG … never mind,
  3. Pivoted to the sell side. By selling a huge chunk of higher priced IEP units, I opted to clean up a “disaster”. Primary reason for the move - next distribution news is not likely in the next month. That leaves IEP price to percolate quietly for a month. LP unit tax math is different, so I have to wait for IEP to send me the paperwork.
  4. In Roth ac, added to ABEV stake.
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Mar 30 is end of quarter. We are waiting for earnings to start in a few weeks. Companies are in a silent period while they assemble their numbers to report. That allows wild rumors to circulate unchallenged. A great time for shorts to play with public perceptions and drive down prices.

Meanwhile pros seem to think many stocks are fully valued based and info available now. So they trade over a narrow range and wait for news.

We are hoping for continued advances in earning and expecting stock prices to respond once the numbers are public.

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@pauleckler - Thanks for the comments and perspective.

  1. Yes, earnings will be coming along soon. But, I was thinking more second of third week of April before those start trickling in.
  2. There probably are some undervalued names out there. But one probably needs to turn a lot of stones in the small cap and microcap arena to find them

Pesonally i prefer growth stocks that aren’t over valued. My experience is they do best.

That is not unlike Charlie Munger teaching Warren Buffett that cigar but? companies are not a good choice.

growth, high-yield, value, GARP, safe – all are just named boxes that folks use to categorize stocks into.
#1 BRK-B (Up 17.46% YTD - is that value or growth?)
#2 FLNG (Down 10.81% YTD value or growth?, definitely high yield)
#3 QCOM (up 18% YTD [edit] yes as a GARP idea. Do I expect share price to continue expanding @ 18%/qtr? growth likely, but not at the YTD rate.
Just explaining my issue with labels/named boxes

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04/01 - 04/05
Some reshuffling moves this week

  • Reduced NPWR on the price bounce
  • More ABEV in Roth ac (lowers my cost basis)
  • Trimmed WU in Roth ac
  • Closed out GSL in taxable ac
  • More INTC in taxable ac
  • Added to CELH in Roth ac

Seems like CPLP is executing on their strategy - container vessels are being sold (6 vessels in two transactions).

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Last week (04/03) AY received a downgrade from a National Bank of Canada analyst–
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4086969-atlantica-sustainable-cut-at-national-bank-on-lack-of-clarity-on-strategic-direction

Multiple items in the URL

  1. AY acquired two wind assets in Scotland for $66M. One issue there is that AY paid about 6.6 times EBITDA for the two assets.
  2. Analyst has a list of reasons including unfinished strategic review, and limited visibility on growth.

For #1 - Seems kinda expensive
For #2 - Is the uncertainty with AY or with AQN? Seems like AY is stuck until AQN make a firm decision on the scope of renewable assets they want to dispose. On the growth side, AY has the Coso batteries project in the works. The deal in #1 - okay, meh in terms of growth.

This week, been dumping TSLA from tax-advantaged accounts. Hasn’t been a lot of positive news for TSLA. Figure I can recycle the name, and pick up shares a little lower.

Added a little more INSW, LPG and VERI this week.

04/08 - 04/12
In a clean-up mood this week

  • Sold much of my TSLA position in Roth ac
  • More LPG in taxable ac
  • Trimmed FRO in Roth ac
  • More INSW in taxable ac
  • Restart GOGL in taxable ac
  • Trimmed AY in Roth ac
  • More VERI in Roth ac
  • Initial VERI in taxable ac
  • More SE in Roth ac

The FRO & AY trim decisions occurred when share price in each had bounced. Sifting the tea leaves, thought the AY bounce (in particular) was unusual. I did think I could buy back the shares lower - just did not think the opportunity would present itself two days later. I haven’t acted on the development just yet. AY decision is more complicated due to the fact that I own (very underwater) AY shares in taxable ac. A significant AY position, so a 5% drop gets magnified.
First NVDY payout this week - exciting, … but I do recognize the underlying entity has been quite bouncy … the last week (very much so).

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Markets like today (04/15) prove challenging. Is it because today is tax-filing deadline?
Sure, it might be logical to crawl under a rock, or, sit on one’s hands (no trading). Or it might make sense to sift the tea leaves, and decide if some idea seems too beaten up. I opted on the latter.

  • More VERI when it slipped under $4.85/sh
  • More AMBP for DRIP ac
  • CLCO was appealing - maybe tomorrow.

The AY action last week looking really good. To a lesser degree, the TSLA move also looks decent.

04/16 - 04/19
Ugh! With some major names sliding - Tough week.
QCOM, TSLA, NVDA, CELH - that TSLA position trim looks very timely.
Had not been checking IBD closely until about an hour ago. NVDA had been #1 last week, and plunged - Out of the Top 30 this week. Still positive YTD. But, it has been an annoying beat-down.

Other events this week

  • Resetting AY in Roth ac. Most of the position cleared. Will consider restarting if the share price slips below $17.75
  • Timing of QCOM nibble was off. Shares continued to slide.
  • More VERI
  • Somewhat of a panic move with MBLY. Decided to dump the entire stake. Both bites were positive.
  • IEP distribution arrived.