12/09 A busy day with in & outs yesterday, followed by almost nothing today. I did think of adding to some existing names (MRVL, LRN, HIMS, CELH), but then as the day wore on - Nope. I did notice the tanker names (INSW, NAT, FRO) listing slightly. Not sure, maybe end-of-year profit taking? Done silly stuff in the past, just sitting on my hands. HAFN trading ex-div today - Yes, I will buy some of dat.
12/09 Saw another post on SeekingAlpha that got me thinking. Another tech related fund, Whale Rock, taking gains in some names e.g. COHR, ENTG, and bumping up their GOOGL, BE, etc. Though I am aware of Bloom Energy (BE), I didnât realize it had a really nice run in 2025. A July - Aug 2025 entry could have snagged a nice 2X - 3X return. Rev has increased some, but nothing to suggest that type of run. Although, like other names e.g. ORCL. AMD, the price did run somewhat higher then pull back quite a bit. Maybe I should add to a watchlist for 2026? Will need to start thinking of my list for 2026 anyway.
12/10 Started the day with shipping names down. Again, with the primary names I own - BWLP, FLNG, INSW, TRMD â not too worried. BWLPâs Q4-to-date is good, and the name is not very levered. On the leverage side, same deal with TRDM & INSW. The dip from IREN had me momentarily thinking about adding. Then, the clean-up bug bit me again. Additional TGT trim, trimmed NVDY â both in taxable ac. In the Roth ac, small WU position made an exit. INSW swaps places with NVDY in Top 10.
12/11 A non-trading day. In Roth ac, some unpleasant news from ORCL took that name down some. But, a few names slightly positive, helped keep the Roth ac positive overall. An interesting Fool article suggests Equinix instead of Irenâ
I do understand part of the argument. However, I do think the article misses the maneuvering that IREN have completed recently. Yes, the recent Bitcoin slump is a negative. And yes, the AI pivot is still somewhat shaky at this time. But, if IREN execute on a couple of milestones, then the uncertainty starts to diminish. Nice bounce for EQIX today. Seems like at this time, at least for me, it is not IREN or EQIX. I think Iâm okay with IREN and EQIX. Small bounce from BRK-B is helpful. In taxable ac, some dividend accruals
12/12 COHR took the AI-related whack
12/15 The Neoclouds (CRWV, CORZ, NBIS, IREN) each taking decent whacks today - Ugh! It might not be strictly AI-related. CORZ and IREN have Crypto, and that has not had a good week or two lately. In the meantime, some adjustments - some monetization (HRL) and loss harvesting (RELY) to start the week
There is a nice point/counterpoint on Nebius available at Saulâs discussion. Have you read those posts?
The argument that Nebius is:
Defraying significant fixed costs in their infrastructure build out with Microsoft contractual obligation.
Foregoing use of those assets for the complete depreciation cycle of their first chips.
Growing organic, high margin business on only 10% or so of their total compute
These are all points that:
Their current margins must erode as MSFT leasing benefits/expense hits their books
They are not able to sell their full (high margin/profit) AI stack to customers who are already deploying on MSFT products within their stack.
Their heavy capital spend, though heavily subsidized by MSFT, will not provide much utility in their core business (high value AI impressions, modeling, etc.)
Significant additional capital will be required when MSFT lease holdings expire (if they decide to not renew)
NBIS is off of itâs peak more than 40%.
I would clarify that, at current prices, Nebius is at the bottom of its recent valuation trend, and roughly in line with the bump it received when MSFT announced their partnership.
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@GDavenport - No, I have not read many posts on Saulâs site in awhile. Some of the folks on that board know tech stuff on some companies, but Iâm not sure on the breadth of their neocloud understanding. Nebius did add Meta as a customer, but could only offer space or AI compute worth about $3B over multiple years (supposedly Meta wanted more, but what Nebius offered was all they could support). Just like with MSFT, these are near term deliveries - Meta was within 15 months of Oct 2025. I think MSFT was within 18 - 24 months of when agreement was announced. [Edit: I should note that NBIS turned red with todayâs drop. IREN turned red on 12/12]
A Nebius related post from SeekingAlpha.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4853183-nebius-why-the-stock-is-trapped-in-consolidation
I was aware of the Sept financing items and the TA related point about the convertible. In some ways, the recent moves made by IREN have a similar nuance. In IRENâs case, the company had an existing convertible that just got punted. Do these guys get debt financing advice from the same people? Use convertible, not single convertible - two flavors, have a follow-on offering, etc. - just odd how two players in the same niche behave in a similar fashion
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Ok, I got a chance to read the Nebius thread on Saulâs board. I will say, there was not a lot of the pro or con arguments that I had not heard prior. The one item that sticks out was the $8B or $9B annual rate. I have a hard time seeing that in 2026 or 2027 with existing booked deals (I mean MSFT is $17.4B and META is $3B, each over 5 years (stated), but more likely over 5.5 - 6 years in reality). It does come down to NBIS executing well in 2026, and clearing big hurdles successfully. Lots of eyes watching. While I like the name, I am a little more cautious about making NBIS a high conviction pick. Oct 2025 - Dec 2025 NBIS nibbles have not panned out as nice, so my cost basis has been increasing more than I would like. But there is room or potential for one more NBIS nibble in 2025. As a single stock entity, i.e. excluding ETFs, NBIS is now 12th largest holding. As noted earlier, with todayâs price drop, NBIS went red on me.
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12/16 Initially looked at the port mid-morning and it was slightly red. Yeah, yeah - let me poke at a few ideas. Yesterday the discussion was on NBIS (useful as a discussion to keep it fresh, but Iâm still at the âshow meâ point, and keeping an eye on how NBIS execute). Today, I note that IREN is still slipping and nibbled again in Roth ac. Also in Roth, trimmed my BROS stake and nibbled on NVDA. And the port eased off slightly on its redness.
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12/16 A SeekingAlpha post - Bull Market Genius Is A Dangerous Thing
While I donât think I have the âI am a Geniusâ attitude, I read the article to just see what I could learn. Using the points as a year end review
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Rebalance regularly - On the self-managed port, I donât think I have individual large positions. The largest stake for 2025 has been one of these three - BRK-B, QCOM or NVDA , maybe 7.5% - 7.75%. There is some regular adjusting occurring (sometimes e.g. shipping names in H1 2025, might have been slightly excessive)
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Use stress tests. Meh! I start getting nervous when 6% drops occur, and start planning adjustments if it bumps up from there.
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Keep leverage low. No concern - I have not used margin in a long, long time
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Keep 5% to 10% Cash. I have had the opposite problem the last couple of years - âtoo much cashâ has been more than an occasional consternation.
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Favor fundamentals over hype. Do the neoclouds fall into this situation? The largest % of deployed capital those have been as a group is maybe 4.5%
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Write down your plan. Plan - what Plan? But seriously, the plan is invest and follow the âguard railsâ - no overloading on one name or one segment, check on the port from time-to-time
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Study past bear markets. My comment on this - Extended corrections happen. Studying them might be some help. But, I donât know if it will help identify the next one. I would probably change this one to - Be prepared.
Thatâs my take
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12/17 The last few days I have seen a couple of news events related to offshore drilling. These include -
- Noble Corp (NE) opting to sell most of its Jack-up rigs to Borr Drilling (BORR) [Edit: It actually is a majority, but not most. It is 5 Jack-up rigs to BORR, and a sixth to a third party. The company still has 5 Jack-up rigs]
- Borr Drilling (BORR) have an offering to raise additional equity to partially cover this acquisition
- Seadrill (SDRL) providing a fleet update. Three rigs, including a JV drillship, getting contract extensions and/or new contracts.
- Valaris (VAL) announced a $300M drillship contract last week. VAL share price took a dip this week. Not sure on the reason. [Edit: Read the link on the new VAL contract. Unlike the SDRL situation, which are near term follow on activities, the VAL contract starts in 2027]
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12/17 Just saw this story on Blue Owl Capital (OWL).
I was not too familiar with OWL until last week. From initial reading, OWL activities had been more on the real estate side. More recent news has been about Open AI and Meta related efforts. Pair Oracle with Open AI, and there is that oft-quoted circular logic diagram. Is this unfunded $10B Data Center a one-off, or just the first of many dominos to fall? In OWLâs case, a $10B facility is not small potatoes (OWLâs TTM is $2.745B). At this time, my directly at-risk capital is the ORCL nibble from a few weeks ago. (On a separate note, is this where the arguments from âthe Geniusâ article comes into play? I mean, this could fall into the hype case or the stress-test case )
12/17 On the flip side, reasonable day for a pair of my shipping names - BWLP & FRO. Third idea, TRMD, $20 is where I have considered adding. Wait and see for now, but definitely open to adding on the taxable ac side. Keeping an eye on TEN, maybe 5% lower would be decent entry. Have already nibbled on HAFN. Might consider adding if it stays in the $5 - $5.50 range.
12/18 - 12/19 A number of dividend accruals
12/18 Somewhat active day
- More TRMD in taxable ac
- More PGY in taxable ac
- COHR nibble in trading ac
- More NVDA in Roth ac
- More VERI in Roth ac
- More HAFN in taxable ac
Had not expected that type of AI bounce today (12/19). The neoclouds had a nice day
12/22 The week of Christmas begins
Based on what I am seeing in weekly reports, crude tanker shipping should have a good Q4 2025. Better, at least, than Q4 2024. But in terms of buying, the clean side with TRMD was more appealing. Another TRMD nibble in taxable ac. Also, added to FLNG in the same account. Then added to IREN in Roth ac. Both IREN and NBIS have flipped back to positive the last few trading days. On price pull-back, added to ABEV in Roth ac. Added to CORZ in taxable ac.
12/31 The year 2025 has come to a trading end.
Trading in the self managed port ended with a whimper - very few trades the last week. or so. An attempt to add to RWTO did not stick. Will poke at the final numbers. But I do know the self-managed port had a positive year. Liked how the Roth ac did. But, I need to do a deeper dive to confirm my thinking.
Thank You to all visitors who stopped by. I especially thank those visitors who commented or liked one or more of the posts during the year. All the best in 2026
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