Declaring Victory

I know that Dreamer has stated that Ukraine is a side show for the market, but I think it is a big negative. Be that as it may, important (IMO) news about 3 hours ago. Colonel General whozits states that they have met their objectives in diminishing Ukrainian military power so that they can move forces to the east to now focus on main objective of liberating Donbas region. Kiev was just a feint to tie down Ukrainian forces. O.k., if he says so…

To me, this is clearly step one of the old “declare victory and go home” strategy. This, plus Turkey’s comment that the two sides are coming together on main issues in negotiations, indicates that both sides may have had enough.

Now that I am writing this, … not so sure. Zelenski may not be able to accept losing Donbas. But if NATO has anyone minding the store, they would be telling him to take the best deal available now–as Ukraine depends upon weapons from NATO. One thing for sure, Russia is positioning itself both politically and militarily to be able to declare victory.

This could be one of the slowly, then suddenly events. I suspect 25%-plus upside when the market whiffs that a deal is in the works. As UPST has retraced, again, to $100 area (and certainly could go to sub-$90 again), I am rebuilding my position. That is the horse I want to ride back to respectability. I am half-way back to my position, from here to forever away from ATH territory.

I am able to declare victory on my UPST position as I previously sold at $113 and $114. I can rebuild at lower price. It doesn’t taste any better than what Putin has bitten off, but I’ll take it. Am I foolish enough to oversize my position and use the excess to trade??? TBD.



Looking at upst again too.

Monday will be interesting.

If down day, i may do more buying. Still dont feel like chasing. I may have to wait out whole month of april and see may ERs and companies complaining about inflation and supply chains and Fed hiking 50 points and we may retest lows. Who knows.

In short-term, if monday is down day, i may load up for Turnaround Tuesday.



Agree, KC, with your Ukraine analysis. And, with the xtra bump to UPST should a reasonable settlement be made.

Given the strong Q4 report, pressure on the stock price seems really overdone.
UPST investors may have to endure a few more quarters of skepticism.