Redundancy is dead or dying...

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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From my childhood exposure to engineers and engineering (in the 1960s), I have blissfully relied upon principles of redundancy to give me comfort in using modern technology and faith in the solutions provided by advances in science and applied engineering.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redundancy_(engineering)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redundancy_(information_theory…

Redundancy is dead in the Aviation industry.

Earlier this morning, Scott Kirby, CEO of United Airlines explained to the CNBC Squawk Box crew that the radio spectrum sold by the FCC to Verizon and AT&T was so close in bandwidth to the frequencies used by electronic altimeters that interference from 5G communications interferes with or corrupts the data transmission essential to functioning altimeters. Apparently, without their ultra-sensitive electronic altimeters, technologically advanced aircraft like the Boeing 777 would be impossible to land (his words not mine).

Kirby stated that, unlike their European counterparts, the US FCC and the FAA never addrressed the technical impacts upon aviation of auctioning off interfering radio frequencies. When pressed for an answer, he admitted that he would not feel safe flying into a US airport if the bandwidth safety rules were not worked out between the FAA and the FCC. Just a couple of days earlier, I heard Hans Vestberg, CEO of Verizon say he would feel perfectly safe flying in the US even if 5G transmissions around airports had been switched on without addressing the same interference issues.

Fortunately, both CEOs said that the technical issues are finally being worked out as they have been in Europe (presumably with some kind of geographic restrictions). It is incomprehensible to me that two government Agencies under the concurrent control of our nation’s Executive Branch are so completely divided into separate fiefdoms that companies were induced to spend almost $70 Billion to purchase the right to place Americans at risk of having their airplanes rendered incapable of landing at US airports.

Hearing of this intergovernmental regulatory problem from the CEO of a global passenger carrier is not the most disturbing aspect of the 5G/aircraft issue. What is most disturbing to me is the fact that modern aviation does not have any kind of planned redundancy to ensure that pilots are able to safely land a plane in the event of an interruption of radio-transmitted data. Upon prompting, Kirby acknowledged that the Boeing 757 Max was equally dependent upon its electronic data instruments for the airplane to fly. For better or for worse, modern aircraft simply do not function in a manner that allows even the most skilled and experienced pilots to take off or land safely without all their electronic data sources and controls in full operating condition.

I’m not the only person to consider this lamentable. After he successfully ditched an Airbus 320 in the Hudson River, US Airways pilot Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger suggested that the aircraft’s fly-by-wire computerized restrictions prevented him from achieving “optimal landing flare,” although another pilot and author credits the A320’s technology with providing Sully the opportunity to make course adjustments without having to concentrate on his rate of descent. I’m not against computerized flight. I’m just a bit disturbed that modern aircraft are completely dependent upon uninterrupted electronic data communication despite the fact that solar flares and energy outages inevitably occur.

Redundancy is dying in the Energy industry.

In a separate thread, our METAR friend in Texas, Telegraph, has posted information about the vulnerability of US renewable energy resources such as solar.

“As an example of a very severe hailstorm’s financial damage, a 178-MW solar project in Pecos County, Texas, sustained $75 million worth of hail damage in 2019…”
My roof shingles have been replaced twice by hail damage in 31 years. took all the chimneys down across the street for 1000 feet with 100 mph straight line winds…
Wonder how many solar panels got roasted in the wildfire episode in CO? Lots of folks who like green energy there.

https://discussion.fool.com/jaakthe-truth-is-that-people-keep-in…

Thanks to its dependence upon the whims of Russian diktats, Europe is learning the importance of redundancy in sources of heating and electricity generating energy.

https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2021/10/27/…

In the absence of US resolve to provide defense in the face of Russian military aggression, one wonders whether Europe is about to learn that it needs redundancy in military defense capacity along with redundancy in heat and electricity generation capabilities.

Even while Europe is learning its hard lessons, the United States seems to be moving away from redundant transportation and electricity generation capabilities. Every year there seem to be fewer and fewer people in America who value redundancy and its ability to provide not just security but independence.

I fondly recall the enthusiasm of the late, great T. Boone Pickens when he made regular appearances on CNBC touting his late-life conversion to belief in renewable energy. I was impressed by his investment in wind power and the advancement of what he called “The Pickens Plan” for providing alternative electricity generating capacity based upon wind. Along with others who remembered the literal dark days of the Great Depression, Pickens believed in an “all of the above” approach to America’s energy needs.

https://bcse.org/images/pdf/pickensplanexecsum.pdf

I admit that I am a “belt and suspenders” believer in redundancy wherever it is possible - not just where it is economically “feasible” - especially when considering issues of life and death. Whether it is the ability to provide a continuous supply of electricity to hospitals and nursing homes or the ability to transport food and essential provisions across the wide expanses of American geography, I would prefer that US policymakers incorporated redundancy into all their long-term plans.

Transportation, roads/bridges, supply of childcare and eldercare workers, utility protection, and military defense are all areas where various kinds of redundancy could be incorporated into planning, engineering, and operation without bankrupting a nation - especially one that prints unlimited amounts of its own currency. It’s simply a matter of having the resolve and the understanding to implement public policy that preserves rather than threatens our comfortable way of life.

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"Earlier this morning, Scott Kirby, CEO of United Airlines explained to the CNBC Squawk Box crew that the radio spectrum sold by the FCC to Verizon and AT&T was so close in bandwidth to the frequencies used by electronic altimeters that interference from 5G communications interferes with or corrupts the data transmission essential to functioning altimeters. Apparently, without their ultra-sensitive electronic altimeters, technologically advanced aircraft like the Boeing 777 would be impossible to land (his words not mine).

Kirby stated that, unlike their European counterparts, the US FCC and the FAA never addrressed the technical impacts upon aviation of auctioning off interfering radio frequencies. "

Radar altimeters operate in the 4.2 to 4.4 Ghz band.

C-band, which was auctioned off, is 3.7 to 4.2 GHz although the frequencies auctioned off were the lower 100 MHZ , ie, 3.7 to 3.8 GHz for the base stations.

If you were around in the 1970s and 80s, you’ll probably remember the Big Ugly Dishes for TVRO systems (satellite broadcast) that were nearly 20 feet in diameter to provide ‘satellite TV’.
If you moved the dish from satellite to satellite you could get 150 channels.

there are probably a few C band satellites still around - there were 39 as of 1990s although most free programming is gone. Most channels are gone, too, to pay TV systems.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_receive-only

C-band was for satellite down links and for point to point microwave systems. Most of those systems migrated out of that spectrum or were later turned off when fiber optic systems provided 10,000 times the capacity at better bit error rates and better voice systems.

When small dish satellite systems started in the 1980s, the big ugly dishes were no longer needed. Now a 2 foot dish would receive the same number of channels. The new systems did not use C-band

The main issue is potential false readings. Modern aircraft tie many things together. The Radar Altimeter readings are fed to the plane transponder that gives Air Traffic Control the altitude of planes. It’s tied to landing systems to control landing speed, flare, reverse thruster activation at ‘touch down’ , etc. Pilots can land in near zero visibility, at night, low cloud deck, rain, even snow/sleet with modern systems.

It will be even more important to keep customers from turning on their phones (5G) while below 10,000 feet. You think that will happen? duh! nope.

In EU, the frequencies licensed are a bit lower, too. From day 1, they excluded areas around airports.

So we’ll see what happens. Apparently, many models of Boeing have concerns. A few AIrbus models. Others are not so tied together and less concern.

As to power system redundacy…well, it costs money. Someone (the customer) has to pay. You want natural gas and coal backup that runs 10% of the time and sits idle 90% of the time? That’s not a good business case for anyone! You’re either going to have to pay them for just sitting there idle 90% of the time so they are there when you need them the 10% of the time when it’s two below in Dallas. That happens about once every 10 or 20 years. Plus of course, the greenies celebrate when the coal plant operators figure out they can’t make any money and bail. Great until you wish they were there as you start rotating blackouts - and even worse at night with no solar.

t.

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The US 5G rollout curfuffle shows that redundancy is alive and well in the aviation industry. That surprised the telecoms. An agreement between the FCC and the FDA has been reached. The FCC is an independent agency that does not report to POTUS.

Miles O’Brien reports on the agreement between the FCC and the FDA
at the 46 minute mark in the PBS Newshour January 19, 2022
https://youtu.be/Y2PG3musNvk?t=2777

Airbus airplanes were designed with two completely independent systems, including totally different operating systems and software. Boeing airplanes sometimes depend on the pilot for redundancy, and the pilots are highly trained. If there was a failure of the radio altimeter, the plane could still be landed safely. Multiple failures could cause problems, but are far less likely.

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Should have said FAA (not the FDA).

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Miles O’Brien reports on the agreement between the FCC and the FDA
at the 46 minute mark in the PBS Newshour January 19, 2022
https://youtu.be/Y2PG3musNvk?t=2777

Very interesting report. Pretty much says what was suspected. First, regulatory capture, FCC supporting the telco’s reluctance to “burden” themselves with addressing the issue, FAA supporting the airline’s reluctance to “burden” themselves with addressing the issue, so they played chicken, until there was a CRISIS!!!

Seems that the FCC and it’s paymasters lost: the report says the “compromise” is the telcos will bear all the “burden”, until the airlines update their equipment. Seems there is no schedule for the airlines to “burden” themselves with updating anything, so they won’t.

On the greater issue of redundancy, the golden idol of the last forty years has been “just in time inventory control” and “lean manufacturing”, to cut costs. Those are just fancy ways of saying eliminating redundancies, or “slack” as it was called when I was in B-school. Same thing in aviation, where triple redundant systems used to be the norm. Now 73 Maxes wobble through the sky with their automated stick pushers dependent on a single AOI vane, second vane available at extra cost, because it’s cheaper to do it that way.

Steve

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