Reilly: Big on Value & PMs, Not So On Growth

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4493311-market-changes-on-h…

I have used the late 1960s, early 1970s analogy in the past. We would refer you back to that era. While we had the 1968 pandemic and civil unrest reference in past letters, we are now seeing something akin to the 1973 oil embargo and shock that sent inflation roaring. What’s next? We hate to say it, but in 1973-74, we suffered one of the worst bear markets in our history. We have pared back some exposure. We are underweight growth/tech stocks and prefer value. Our oil and gold positions have absorbed a good part of the hit so far in 2022. Here’s the thing. Markets are oversold and in negative gamma. Negative gamma swings both ways. That is why we get 800-point rallies in the Dow Jones. A significant rally may be in the horizon if Russia backs off. We would be sellers. We see 15-18 months of sideways to lower in the markets for now.

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