Portfolio Update 12/31/21 6PM
It’s been a day over a month since I posted my last portfolio update found here;
I have found doing these updates is helping me keep better records of my investing thought processes over time. Much like keeping a journal in life when you re-read in the future it helps you remember what your thoughts were at the time of writing. Hopefully others find this helpful as well.
Current Portfolio as of 12/31/21. Change since 11/28/21 -20.1% YTD -1.8% VTI Monthly +4.9% YTD +25.8%
I have decided to just benchmark versus the VTI which is Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund, which is probably what I would put my money into if I did not want to spend time researching stocks. VTI includes all 3600 stocks traded in market.
Stock % Portfolio % Portfolio % Change Market Monthly Stock Current Previous Portfolio Cap (B) Price change UPST 60.0 52.8 +7.2 12.4B -15.8 TCNNF 40.0 46.2 -6.2 4.9B -0.3 CASH 0 1.0
New positions since last portfolio update: None
Exited positions since last update: None
Trades between 11/28-12/31 Bought: UPST 12/17 136.59; 136.55 UPST 12/14 146.86; 141.25 UPST 12/13 158.68; 160.01 UPST 12/02 169.95; 166.73; 164.75 Sold: TCNNF 12/17 24.06; 24.08 TCNNF 12/14 23.61; 23.70; 23.78 TCNNF 12/13 24.70; 24.79 TCNNF 12/02 25.87; 26.01; 26.03; 26.09
Thoughts on trades and companies for the month.
November and December have been tough months for my portfolio. Obviously Upstart got slammed for most of December ending the month at -15.8% lower than it started the month. Trulieve end the month at about even, although it had a -10% drop mid month. I sold more Trulieve in order to purchase more UPST. After my purchase Upstart fell a touch more which coincided with the low in my portfolio for the year on 12/20 at -14.8%.
It was in August that I started to consolidate my portfolio and I was mentally prepared for more volatility and I have been getting it. Oct. 22nd was the high return of 59.9% YTD and Dec. 20th a mere two months later it was at a low of -14.8%. Most of the movement has been in Upstart. Additionally I have been trading a smaller position of my portfolio around the movement in both stocks as discussed in last months post.
Since end of August I have 157% more shares of UPST and 65% of the TCNNF shares. I have accumulated currently 6.5% more value on my investment than if I had not traded between companies since August. I had sold a good bit of UPST in September before its steep fall and been buying it back over the last two months. At the end of Sept. my portfolio was 66% in TCNNF and 34% in UPST, no that has flipped and I have a majority in UPST.
I have added cash to my portfolio in December around ~5% of total value. I believe both of my holdings are a value currently. As for YTD results I obviously am underperforming the overall market by a good bit as the VTI was around 26%. I feel confident in my approach to holding these two stocks. Time will tell and I plan on writing up my results to share to see if my consolidated approach becomes a good or a bad thing. I consider Dec. 31st a snap shot in time, I will give my portfolio until next earnings to determine if changes are needed.
As far as companies performance I am very happy with both Trulieve and Upstart. They communicate clearly with investors and are both building their respective companies. I expect continued growth in 2022. Trulieve is tied to the overall cannabis industry, which depends on government action to allow it to list on a “real” stock exchange. Trulieve may take a little longer to play out due to this fact. However the sales from Harvest Health merger will start to be included next quarter, which I fully expect will make for 100% year over year comparisons on revenue numbers.
Upstart has always told investors its revenues are lumpy. I full expect Upstart to continue to trade wildly after earning reports. I will definitely be evaluating the next quarterly report closely to determine an appropriate percentage for my portfolio.
TAM 1.4T https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/upstarts-%241.4-trillion-mar…
Monthly performance of stock for November was -15.8%
TAM 62.5B (US) https://thedeepdive.ca/bofa-global-cannabis-market-currently…
Monthly performance of stock for November was -0.3%
YTD return of portfolio for each month January 18.5% February 20.1% March 8.5% April 8.6% May 4.8% June 15.8% July 8.8% August 18.8% Sept 42.4% Oct 40.5% High of year at 59.9% on Oct. 22nd Nov 24.0% Dec -1.8% Low for the year was -14.8% on Dec. 20th
Hope everyone has a health and safe 2022!