I will try to make this short.
Other than the obvious gas, oil, wheat and thermonuclear war, there are other risks and consequences of this war.
First, as Russia has failed to take Kyiv and the last report is that the majority of the Russian troops are still 20 miles outside of Kyiv we can expect that one of two things will happen.
- Russia will up the military game by using drones and more modern weapons and increase attacks on civilians.
- Settle in for a protracted war and then insurgency.
The latter is a losing proposition for Russia however we must take it into consideration.
In either case there are some significant Macro things happening.
First, 1 percent if the Ukrainian population has left the country. In a area where all labor is in short supply and getting shorter due to demographics, this will have a significant impact in the economics of the area.
Second, remember, oil and to a great extent, wheat is fungible, so a barrel of oil sold to China is very close to the same as a barrel of oil sold to Germany. If that barrel of oil is 50 percent more money, well, good for the seller. This means to me that the SWIFT system will be replicated and Russia will get its primary export to market. Also something along the same lines will happen with wheat.
(If Russia survives at all)
Risk 1 - This will weaken the power of the SWIFT system if the situation is prolonged.
Additionally, we have not seen a lot of advance espionage. In the run up to the invasion Biden revealed just how weak a hand he had by sacrificing sources and methods to expose and attempt to thwart the invasion. Putin should have listened as the assessments revealed just how many leaks his system has. On the other hand, the U.S. is extremely vulnerable to an espionage attack. The extensive computer breach a few years ago left every government employee open to being compromised. If an escalation in espionage attacks occurs and Russia was privy to the information gleaned from the U.S. Government systems hack, then a lot of bad things can happen in the USA. As this is extension of an economic war, I would expect these to subtle but painful.
So Risk 2 - Significant economic pain in the USA and EU brought on by a series of unfortunate events.