Seasonality or Recession?

We have not honestly seen seasonality in the stock market since the mid 1990s. First came Y2K and then a host of monetary led policy problems.

Seasonality really takes no explanation…sales for the holidays are excellent followed by a much slower January into a point between March and the end middle of May. After that sales rise into the next holiday season.

The main thing for us is the responsiveness of the equity market to seasonality. The responsiveness died in the mid 90s.

I think seasonality is back in the markets. Perhaps the biggest reason for the decline in the markets this year if a decline happens. And on a timeline.

The thread that inspired these thoughts was my car sales thread. My friend a finance person told me sales were way down. Seasonality. But make no mistake my finance guy would tell me sales are down. If the perspective becomes now is a good time to take advantage of him…buyer beware. No one takes advantage of him. They may think they have…but no they have not.