SHOP thoughts from Foolfest

I am aware that many on this board, including Saul, have moved on from SHOP. I am posting this for those who are still holding or who are on the fence about continuing to hold (or to buy). While I love and respect the rigorous analysis of this Board and the eagle-eyed focus on numbers, all of which has helped me make some great investments, I am also influenced by my sixth sense, which is why I’ve held onto SHOP for several years. Here are some snippets from today’s Foolfest conversation with Shopify CEO Tobi Lutke that reinforce my long position.

  • Lutke said that he has “a different job every half a year, and a different Shopify every half a year”. This is not the statement of someone who is being whipsawed by circumstances. I interpret it to mean that he is keenly present to the economic environment and to the ever-evolving needs of customers and is able to adjust accordingly, without ego. That level of awareness, humility and flexibility makes me trust him to steer SHOP into the future.

  • He mentioned that SHOP helped Heinz UK (a fairly traditional brand) start selling condiments direct to consumer during the COVID crisis. Lutke remarked that the crisis has enabled forward-looking employees in old school companies; they now can implement long overdue changes. That bodes well for SHOP…it’s not just for small businesses and solopreneurs.

I believe the interview will be posted in the near future for those who wish to listen to the whole thing.


Hold forever
This market is enormous and they have no competition
It will take 50% haircuts from time to time but long term should eventually get to a trillion dollar valuation (10 bagger from here)

Sold 25 shares at $100 with 2.5 times profit. Sold another 5 shares at $500… What do you think, sell some or hold on longer.

Howie, Sorry, but don’t give actual numbers of shares which gives dollar value. Also we don’t give advice on what you should do. This post will be DELETED! Please read the “Monday Morning Rules of the Board” which are posted every Monday.

I’m holding SHOP long-term. I’ve had some direct experience with Shopify stores and was very impressed by everything from their constant admin and integration improvements to the quality of customer service to the ease-of-use and customization. They have so many channels to make money too (payment processing, subscriptions, apps, etc.) There really isn’t anything like it either, that I’ve seen. The story is there. Hopefully the numbers show they perform as well for shareholders as they do for users.