Snowflake Q2'23 earnings beat and raise

Snowflake Mission Statement:

'Snowflake’s mission is to enable every organization to be data-driven.
Their cloud-built data warehouse makes that possible by delivering instant elasticity, secure data sharing and per-second pricing, across multiple clouds.
Snowflake combines:

  • the power of data warehousing,
  • the flexibility of big data platforms and the elasticity of the cloud
  • at a fraction of the cost of traditional solutions.’

Snowflake Reports Financial Results for the Second Quarter of Fiscal 2023
08/24/2022

- Product revenue of $466.3 million in the second quarter, representing 83% year-over-year growth
- Remaining performance obligations of $2.7 billion, representing 78% year-over-year growth
- 6,808 total customers
- Net revenue retention rate of 171%
- 246 customers with trailing 12-month product revenue greater than $1 million

“During Q2, product revenue grew 83% year-over-year to $466 million dollars. Our non-GAAP product gross margin exceeded 75%, and we continue to generate non-GAAP operating income and free cash flow,”

said Frank Slootman, Chairman and CEO, Snowflake.

“Snowflake’s next frontier of innovation is aimed at transforming how cloud applications are built, deployed, sold, and transacted. We look forward to executing against this growth opportunity.”

https://investors.snowflake.com/news/news-details/2022/Snowf…

Look at some of these highlights, eh:

  • That Net revenue retention rate is 171%.
Q2'Y23    Q1'23    Q4'22    Q3'22    Q2'22
171%      174%     176%     171%     169%
  • Customers Over $1M Product Revenue1 is up 112% YoY !
  • Forbes Global 2000 Customers is up 15% YoY
  • Growing employee headcount/ expanding globally
  • Guided Non-GAAP Operating Income for FY23 to become positive at midpoint by 2%.

Investor Presentation
Second Quarter Fiscal 2023
https://s26.q4cdn.com/463892824/files/doc_financials/2023/q2…

Waiting on the conference call
https://events.q4inc.com/attendee/333219285

Best, kevin c
long of Snowflake Inc.
please click on my screen name for disclosed holdings

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If I read that correctly, they are over $900m in past 6 months, which is great, and at high growth of course.

But they had $381m in stock comp over the same period?

https://investors.snowflake.com/news/news-details/2022/Snowf…

Seems excessive, no?

Dreamer

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Excellent point Dreamer,

Snowflake SBC as a percent of revenues (~42% this year up from ~30% in 2022) is high though similar to Zscaler, for example, ~40%.

Bill.com is over 30%, Crowdstrike is ~20%, with DataDog and Cloudflare in the high teens.

It is certainly high SBC as compared to more mature tech companies such as Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon… all closer to 5%.

With that said, i see SBC as a necessary evil for these Fast growers in attracting the best talent, and employee count is Up for Snowflake as they continue to expand globally,
as long as higher management SBC doesn’t become too grossly exaggerated.

IMHO, as long as revenues continue to grow and SBC as a percentage of revenues concomitantly decreases we should do very well, eh ;^)

Great to see Snow guiding for Product Revenue of $1,910M this year and ~$10,000M by FY 2029.

Something to keep an eye on, eh.

Best, kevin c

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My Notes…
SNOW Q 2 FY 23 Earnings Call: Analyst Q/A
CEO, Frank Slootman
CFO, Mike Scarpelli
SVP Product Innovation, Christian Kleinerman

Q Sequential growth in product revenue is nearly 2X what it was in Q1. Are you seeing many customers analyze at higher levels?
A In general, SNOW gets prioritized fairly high in the enterprise. Customers have picked up the scent of the opportunity for them in pharma and in financial services, etc. Lots of urgency of advancing into the cloud. This is not an expense that customers will casually cut back on because it’s so valuable.
CFO said this is a consumption model and not a SaaS model. Can’t just do a q/q comparison. By and large, most of their customers are still ramping up and they expect this to continue.

Q Q3 guide re: 8% seasonal growth. Looking back this looks rather conservative.
A Nothing has changed in their guidance since the company started. There are uncertainties w/ Macro and the guidance reflects this. Last Q2 is a bad y/y to compare against since it was unusually high.

Q Pricing differences when using different cloud providers?
A Snowflake is more expensive on cloud providers that do not use as much SNOW. 80% of their customers run in AWS, 18% Azure and 2% Google.

Q Looking at the environment, lots of people thinking about optimizations. Looking at how much will be consumed in the next 12 months. There’s a mass differential. What’s driving the mass increase you have in consumption. What are the dynamics that were made in the qtr.
A They will continue to do optimizations, so we can make SNOW cheaper for their customers, so they do think the current CRPO will come down to the low 50’s where they have historically been. We expect there will be significant renewals in their contracts later this year. Revenue consumption is the metric the CFO looks at because they’re a consumption model business and not a SaaS.

Q What do you see in your consumption model for customers?
A It’s quite attractive for consumers to have a consumption model so they can throttle up or down how much they consume, which is something they could not do if SNOW were a SaaS model. New customers generally start very small and it takes them 9 months before they begin to really consume. They will save money using SNOW vs. what they’ve done before they used SNOW.

Q GSI partner feedback. What are they telling you about re: making greater investments in SNOW?
A Conference was an extraordinary display of our ecosystem. It’s a very purposeful choice to try to create maximum choice so customers have choices and don’t have to “Buy all things Snowflake.”
Data re: GSI’s have done north of $550M. Top 3 GSI’s are consuming around $320M. 1% was on- demand and 2% was re-sellers, and the remainder was consumption model agreements.

Q Should we expect significant increases in the next qtr or two qtrs.?
A Yes, but I’m not going to guide to it per the CFO. “I’m never going to guide to RPO.”

Q Europe status?
A Key verticals is how you win business over there. We’re actually feeling good about the progress in Europe with big names in the key verticals. Not feeling a lot of macro headwinds in Europe.

Q NRR reducing w/ bigger customers?
A No. SNOW’s top customers continue to grow.

Q Data Bricks Comparrison?
A SNOW is a far more strategic choice than being a tool in the lake like Databricks. DNA/culture as a company are different and they have different customer types using different tools. Both companies have lived side by side playing different roles. SNOW’s approach to simplicity to use their product is a true differentiator vs. Databricks.

Q Headcount growth in sales has exceeded 50%. Where are you focusing these investments?
A 1st half of the year is always largest hiring. Direct sales and sales engineers are being added into. It’s about a 6 month time period to ramp. Bigger verticals can take up to a year to ramp.

Q Migrating customers is 60% of your business. What are you seeing out of your pipeline to migrate out of legacy services?
A They’re going to get left behind if you don’t get on board. Frank sees increased growth.

Q Stable edges growth?
A Lots of people are pre-occupied with the migration, people want to get their core business moved over before they get into executing on bigger things. The data cloud is critical, otherwise companies will have to silo their work and the new insights and abilities available are only available on the cloud. You’ll frustrate your data science team and miss out on the promise that is now in front of us.

Q Record number of million $ customers. Correlation w/ data sharing and stable edges?
A Million dollar accounts can be multiple years in the making. Every industry has its own data networks and reasons. The need to share data is critical. SNOW has become the defacto platform for financial services companies. We have 510 global 2000 companies and the average spend has gone up from $1,050 to $1,250 since last quarter. We expect these larger enterprises to continue to increase their use like this in the future.

Q Color RE: SNOW’s investments?
A SNOW continues to invest in the building of headcount, which drives R&D and sales and this is where they are investing in an adequate fashion. They will continue to do so y/y.

Q Big verticals and what are they?
A Financial services is about 21% and closely behind that is media and then technology and then medical and retail CPG. These are very large users w/ stable edges. We continue to land big accounts in these verticals.

Q Lots of companies are reducing their guide, and how are you doing this?
A Some SaaS may be saturated. SNOW as a consumption business is not. We’re growing it.

Q Size of markets?
A SNOW started out in workload modernization by taking workloads to the cloud. This really helps customers to reliably deliver data to their customers. Customers have historically struggled with this. 9 of 10 conversations w/ customers are about specific problems. In pharma, if we can help take 1 year off their clinical trials, that’s a lot of $$. We see broadening of who they’re talking with to solve problems with each customer. Snowflake for data applications is really taking off. SNOW has become defacto in building whole businesses on top of SNOW. Workplace modernization is no longer their mainstay, the applications for SNOW have exploded significantly.

Q What is the risk that 6-12 months from now we’ll see a slowdown at SNOW.
A All 600 CAP 1 customers who recently signed up w SNOW will start increasing their usage. Frank thinks that macro nervousness is unfounded for SNOW. Much better to be in an elastic model as with SNOW.

Q Snowpark and Python support as well as Apache. When will that start to produce consumption.
A Largest customers have put pressure on NOW to declare these things generally available GA. Meaningful contribution will happen next year.

Q Optimizations: Any new assumptions?
A No changes to their assumptions. Always looking for a way to create value and performance for their customers.

Q Types of workloads at lower price points?
A Seeing a lot of lower latency use cases due to better economics and seeing a lot of data migrations due to the price and performance.

Additional remarks:
Stable edges grew 112% year over year.
Streamlet bridges the gap between data scientists and corporate users
Applica, a machine learning company was acquired by SNOW.
78% RPO growth y/y and this is a 79% increase from 1 year ago
71% Net Revenue Retention growth y/y
Added 12 new global 2000 customers and we believe these customers will become their top customers.
Not seeing sales soften now or in the future. The largest organizations in the world continue to increase their use of snowflake.
Margins for product is 79%
Guidance for Q3 is 63% revenue growth
Applica: Adding new employees for this acquisition
Added nearly 1,000 net new employees and our long-term opportunity is greater than it’s ever been.

Thank you to all who make this board the unique venue that it is for crowdsourcing investment discussions, information and perspectives.

sjo

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Although I am not very familiar with the details of SNOW’s SBC, keep in mind that most stock based compensation expense that you see, for any company, in a given quarter, is not new options or restricted stock grants during that quarter, but related to grants from a year or two ago that are still vesting and being expensed over that period.

Typically, especially for tech companies, lots of big grants are given out when the company goes public, and they expense over the vesting period, likely 3-5 years, with the highest amounts of expense in the first year or two and then the quarterly expense relating to those old grants drops a bit later in the vesting period, but you still may see some SBC 4 or 5 years after the options were granted.

There will be some new grants/awards given out over time, usually for new executives or other employees, but unless it is a new CEO/CFO etc, the new ones are usually a drop in the bucket compared to the significant ones that get put in place at the time of the IPO.

SNOW has been public for a shorter period than some of the other companies we follow, so it makes sense that they are still in the earlier vesting periods (higher expense).

So I don’t view this as a major red flag. Definitely something to keep monitoring and if the SBC expense is just as high 3 or 4 years after the IPO as it was in that first year, that would start to get more of my attention

-mekong

44 Likes

Yes, great Q. I agree that SBC/Rev is a little high. I like the (FCF-SBC)/Rev metric calculated in the link below. DDOG, CRWD are doing well in line with a much bigger and successful SAAS co. Like Servicenow. ZS is doing slightly better than NET, SNOW, MDB, and BILL.

https://twitter.com/IrnestKaplan/status/1533384421621084160?..

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But they had $381m in stock comp over the same period?

Seems excessive, no?

Dreamer,

The topic of SNOW’s stock based comp has already been beaten to death, seems like every quarter it gets brought up because prior posts or company documents are just never read by some people.

There is NOTHING new about the guided SBC for the current fiscal year since BEFORE ipo in 2020, three years ago.

Management has continued to reiterate 1% dilution each year moving forward, after this FY. This guidance is the most important to us today, if we are making valuation assumptions past this FY.

In my opinion up to end of this FY we are supposed to be valuing SNOW based on 360M share count, ever since they became public. Nothing has changed about that at all.

https://discussion.fool.com/my-big-concerns-with-snowmassive-sto…

Can we put to rest the issue of SNOW’s SBC already?

From the S1 filing at IPO, the expected SBC and share dilution was already known far in advance.

Back in 2020, everyone knew the diluted share count would hit 360M today. There is nothing surprising here.

Here is an article complaining about SBC back at IPO in September 2020: https://fortune.com/2020/09/17/snowflake-ipo-successful-stoc…

“…its total shares outstanding will grow substantially in the years ahead as employees cash in their generous equity grants…it looks like almost all of those 80 million shares-in-waiting will add to Snowflake’s current float of around 280 million, lifting the total by 29% to 360 million.”

Everybody knew the share count would hit 360 million long ago and it hasn’t changed since IPO.

SNOW has guided for 360M diluted share count for this year since two quarters ago and also guided for 1% share dilution per year moving forward.

The SBC you are worried about today, is a problem in the past. I would think of the 80 million shares added as a one time drawn out IPO charge/event. Focus on the future: there isn’t going to be significant dilution.

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I believe there was an earlier thread diving in to the non-USD exposure of some of the companies discussed on the board. Here ia what Snowflake said today on the call:

Foreign currency exposure has been a relevant topic recently. However, less than 5% of our revenue is invoiced in currencies other than the U.S. dollar. So at the moment, we do not evaluate our business on a constant currency basis given the immateriality.

During this strong USD period, Snowflake is very sheltered from fx woes. They are of course ramping up internationally, hopefully USD will eventually settle down.

akhenaton

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Hi Jon,

thanks for reminding us about the dilution issue. This also explains why they put weighted-average diluted shares at 358 million for the 2023 full-year guidance (the diluted share count in Q2 2022 was 318 million only).

They added this about the 358 million number: “We may have a non-GAAP net income for full-year fiscal 2023. As a result, we are presenting the weighted-average shares used in computing net income per share attributable to common stockholders - diluted in the non-GAAP column of the table above, giving effect to all dilutive securities (stock options, restricted stock units, and employee stock purchase rights under our 2020 Employee Stock Purchase Plan). These dilutive securities would be excluded from the weighted-average shares used in computing net loss per share attributable to common stockholders - diluted if we are in a non-GAAP net loss position.”

So I guess we should use the 358 million + 1% yearly dilution from 2024 for future EV calculations?

So instead of the 60.7 bil market cap we see on financial media sites now ($191 per share as of this writing and 318 mil shares outstanding), we have an actual 68.4 bil market cap now (358 million shares outstanding), against revenue expectations of roughly $2 billion for FY 2023. Minus 3.95 in cash we get an EV/S of 32.2, which gives us a growth-adjusted EV/S (like the PEG) of 0.47 at 68% guided growth. If you listened to the recent Invest Like the Best podcast with Robert Smith about “Investing in Enterprise Software” (highly recommended), you will have learned that historically the growth-adjusted EV/S used to be on average 0.43 prior to 2020/2021 (in 2021 it maxed out at 0.93). So we are slightly above the historical average for Snowflake, though Snowflake is anything but average in my opinion.

Niki

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There’s a lot of valuable info in the Q&A, but IMO there was one stunning nugget, which sjo mentioned, but failed to highlight.

Derrick Wood of Cowen asked (snip), “What are you seeing out of your pipeline in terms of the prospects priority to migrate off of on-prem systems.”

Frank Slootman replied (snip), “I will tell you that just in the last week, I’ve heard some two very, very iconic names in two different industries that were staunch on-premise people who would never ever go cloud and that are now going. I just feel that the resistance is completely breaking and people are going cloud. We will see acceleration to the cloud as opposed to holding back.”

I think this is incredibly valuable to investors that follow this board because Slootman’s answer isn’t just relevant to Snowflake. Rather it has implications for every company we follow. With the breakdown of resistance along with acceleration in the migration to the cloud we should see acceleration in the growth of all our cloud oriented companies which are by and large leaders in their respective fields. Most of the companies that we follow hold near monopolies in their niche. Of those that share the market (i. e., CRWD, ZS, S), they tend to not compete head-to-head and share an enormous TAM with a lot of room for more than one company to succeed.

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Agreed Brittlerock - I thought that this was a significant insight.

It certainly is central to the data cloud thesis of Snowflake and other cloud only/cloud first players as you mention but even more interesting in explaining how much of an existential move it has been for other on-Prem and non cloud players to shift to the cloud (Alteryx, Elastic, MongoDB etc) and why those going through the transition are now seeing such bifurcated rates of growth between cloud and non cloud portions of their businesses.

Ant

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“… I’ve heard some two very, very iconic names in two different industries that were staunch on-premise people who would never ever go cloud and that are now going. I just feel that the resistance is completely breaking and people are going cloud…”

This is where being technical and somewhat near the forefront of new technologies is an investing disadvantage. AWS came out in 2006, so it’s over 16 years old now. For the companies I worked at, the cloud vs on-prem battle was won by 2016 (Azure came out in 2010), so to hear that there are big companies that are just now moving to the cloud is, well, surprising to me in some ways. I looked it up, and yes, Teradata is still doing new versions for Windows and Linux. Next thing someone will tell me there are cars still being made with carburetors instead of fuel injection (while the real push is to electric).

In addition to @brittlerock’s good points about cloud computing companies in general, I’d also like to point out that for these slow behemoths just now going to the cloud, things like Machine Learning (ML), and AI must be the furthest things from their consideration. Something to keep in perspective if you’re thinking that Databricks is a real competitor to Snowflake.

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“… I’ve heard some two very, very iconic names in two different industries that were staunch on-premise people who would never ever go cloud and that are now going. I just feel that the resistance is completely breaking and people are going cloud…”

The one negative about this trend is that for whatever reason, (business relationships, co-opetition friction etc), Snowflake has only 2% of their business with Google Cloud. If an on-prem or hybrid potential client is considering going to Google Cloud then Snowflake almost certainly isn’t going to get that business.

Now that the long tail of laggard businesses are shifting, I really think Snowflake should sort out its beef/relationship/commercial interests with Google. Then there’s Oracle, AliBaba Cloud and IBM and other mega cloud operators to also consider which I never hear mention of from Snowflake.

Ant

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The one negative about this trend is that for whatever reason, (business relationships, co-opetition friction etc), Snowflake has only 2% of their business with Google Cloud.

That and they have 80% of customers running it in AWS. Is that a concentration risk if the relationship sours for some reason?

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I think the concern about AWS concentration and the low percentage of GCP is misplaced. As Slootman said, Snowflake is Snowflake is Snowflake. They are agnostic with respect to the platform. The relative levels between AWS, Azure and GCP reflect customer decisions, not Snowflake decisions. If more customers decide to use GCP, then the Snowflake concentration on GCP will rise. Slootman said the costs vary between the platforms. It appears that this is an economic/capability decision being made by their customers.

If I’m wrong about that, I expect someone with experience in the field will correct me.

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With regard to AWS came out in 2006, so it’s over 16 years old now.

AWS now is an order of magnitude more capable, performant and featured than it was in 06. At least. It’s been constantly expanded, integrated with partner tech like Github, and providing a platform for other software to integrate with (like Snowflake) and for all specialty platforms & languages (React, its solar system) to work on.

Point being, it was legitimate in 06 for companies of all sizes to go “wait and see”. My former employer waited until ‘14 (at least) to “approve” its use in IT systems. Even in 16, our CISO had to go to the Temple and get educated that AWS’ security provided many more controls than any “on-premise” systems could hope to without tens of millions of new investment. AWS was quite polite about it.

FC

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I think the concern about AWS concentration and the low percentage of GCP is misplaced. As Slootman said, Snowflake is Snowflake is Snowflake. They are agnostic with respect to the platform. The relative levels between AWS, Azure and GCP reflect customer decisions, not Snowflake decisions. If more customers decide to use GCP, then the Snowflake concentration on GCP will rise.

Ok I also stand to be corrected by the tech experts here but:

I’m not worried about AWS - that relationship looks good and the concentration probably represents a skew due to the success of AWS and the under performance of GCP amongst other reasons.

I do though think GCP is an issue and don’t necessarily agree that if GCP share rises then so would Snowflake’s business.

Why is that? Well for a number of reasons…

  1. Snowflake share of the cloud providers is 2% with GCP but GCP is 4-5%+ of the global cloud market. So already Snowflake is under performing by a massive amount - half.

  2. Snowflake has taken great pains to point out to GCP that if only they would do business with them then they would bring much more business their way instead of going to AWS. They remonstrated them on a conference call!

  3. Yes Snowflake maybe agnostic but that doesn’t mean the cloud operators are. Snowflake said that first companies chose their cloud provider then they chose their data partner. Well if they chose GCP first then clearly they aren’t necessarily choosing Snowflake and Google has established partnerships with DataBricks.

Ant

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If an on-prem or hybrid potential client is considering going to Google Cloud then Snowflake almost certainly isn’t going to get that business.

Now that the long tail of laggard businesses are shifting, I really think Snowflake should sort out its beef/relationship/commercial interests with Google.

Ant, you are acting as if Snowflake is to blame for this sour relationship. Here is how it looks to me……

Google is clearly threatened by something being hosted on its own IaaS platform that is a competing product … and so is giving Snowflake the cold shoulder. They are making huge moves over the past year in their BigQuery ecosystem, including Omni and BigLake, and Snowflake is in the direct line of its fire.

“If an on-prem or hybrid potential client is considering going to Google Cloud” … then Google Cloud wants them to use BigQuery. Unlike other clouds, they seem to be making the decision to not encourage this competing platform on their IaaS due to this.

This is a TERRIBLE posture for a cloud hyperscaler to have. Rule one of being a hyperscaler: You want to encourage compute and storage use from SaaS platforms built upon your IaaS services, even if they compete!! Why? Because you WIN EITHER WAY, capturing the compute whether its in your native service or a SaaS/PaaS built atop you.

Imagine if AWS gave Netflix the cold shoulder when it built in its IaaS, because wanted to push a product line (video streaming) over encouraging extreme lock-in into their IaaS? If you sell IaaS you have to take competition too as you scale up, otherwise you will remain a bit player and potential customers will rightfully question how independent your IaaS is from your other product lines…

Then there’s Oracle, AliBaba Cloud and IBM and other mega cloud operators to also consider which I never hear mention of from Snowflake.

Once customers on those platforms want Snowflake there, it can build into them. Which gives them more leverage they could wield against GCP. Google better wake up, or Snowflake can push up one of the AAA cloud players like Oracle or IBM Cloud as options for customers. Both also compete with Snowflake (as well as every hyperscaler) in analytical dbs. (Talk about a test to see if these companies are serious about providing cloud IaaS.)

Ultimately I feel you have the company names reversed in your concerns. Here is what I think rings more true:

If an on-prem or hybrid potential client is considering going to Snowflake then Google Cloud almost certainly isn’t going to get that business.

Now that the long tail of laggard businesses are shifting, I really think Google Cloud should sort out its beef/relationship/commercial interests with Snowflake.

-muji

99 Likes

Ant, you are acting as if Snowflake is to blame for this sour relationship. Here is how it looks to me……

Ultimately I feel you have the company names reversed in your concerns. Here is what I think rings more true:

If an on-prem or hybrid potential client is considering going to Snowflake then Google Cloud almost certainly isn’t going to get that business.

Now that the long tail of laggard businesses are shifting, I really think Google Cloud should sort out its beef/relationship/commercial interests with Snowflake.

Hi Muji - totally agree on the dissection of the issue and actually never meant to ascribe blame in this whether through wording or order of the names and certainly wasn’t directing blame at Snowflake.

In the latest data I just saw, Google cloud now has 10% of the global cloud business and is out growing most of the field. Whoever is to blame it is in both their interests and especially Snowflake to resolve this if they have only 2% of Google Cloud business when its market share is 10%.

Ant

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Google cloud now has 10% of the global cloud business and is out growing most of the field. Whoever is to blame it is in both their interests and especially Snowflake to resolve this if they have only 2% of Google Cloud business when its market share is 10%.

I think it’s a mistake to look at a global market share for all types of users and applications. What would be more important is market share among enterprise customers (versus smaller company versus education versus whatever breakdown is appropriate). But, we don’t get those numbers out of Google.

Here’s an interesting article from InfoWorld on Google Cloud: https://www.infoworld.com/article/3633195/will-google-cloud-…

It points out: Google bundles its customer numbers and results for Google Cloud with other cloud services like Workspace, so it is difficult to ascertain the true scale of its enterprise footprint. What we do know is there is a lack of big-ticket, public examples of more traditional companies committing to shifting their business applications onto Google Cloud infrastructure wholesale, in the way many commit to AWS or Azure.

and continues:

While companies like 20th Century Fox and American Eagle continue to turn to Google Cloud specifically for advanced AI and machine learning services, there are still very few companies that have gone all-in with the vendor in the way Morgan Stanley has with Microsoft or as McDonald’s did with AWS, for example.

This makes sense to me. At the high end of development there’s some affinity for Google, but at the mainstream business side - the side that does almost all Enterprise decision making - Google is not a popular choice. And even there the few enterprise customers Google Cloud can shout about are reportedly not yet spending what they initially committed to

The article points out that to Enterprise CEOs, Google Cloud simply has more risk than AWS or Azure. And Google itself isn’t setup well to compete: Kurian told the Wall Street Journal in 2019 that Google’s cloud sales team is around one-tenth to one-fifteenth the size of the sales forces at AWS and Microsoft Azure. “The two things customers tell us are: We love your technology. But we don’t have enough people from Google to assist us with your understanding of the technology and your understanding of our industry,” the CEO said during the Google Cloud Next conference that year.

But, I think the odds are stacked against Google. “If you want to get these late majority adopters to embrace the cloud in general and win them over to your cloud, you have to speak their language,” IDC’s Arend said. “It is about getting those late majority customers to choose Google, because the digital natives have already made their choice.

The “late majority adopters” refers to the Diffusion of Technology, which breaks down technology adoption into 5 different groups. While these late majority adopters are one of the largest groups, they are also among the least technology savvy. Right now my impression is that Google attracts more tech savvy than business focused users/companies, so to think that Google can win in the late majority adopters group just feels wrong. These users/companies will follow what the early adopters and early majority have decided on, which is AWS and Azure by far. Azure has a huge advantage with so many companies already using Microsoft, it just becomes natural to extend the relationship.

Snowflake at 2% on GCP when GCP has a 10% global market share doesn’t tell us much of anything since we don’t know what percentage of the Enterprise Cloud Market Google has. I read an article the other day that claimed since the US uses coal to generate 22% of its electricity that 22% of EVs sold in the US are actually running on coal. But, that is wrong because it’s not looking at a more localized breakdown. Turns out that 40% of the EVs sold in the US are sold in California, and less than 3% of the electricity generated for CA comes from coal. And states with the highest coal generation have the lowest EV adoption. So the actual math is quite different. I suspect a similar effect to be applied here - GCP may have 10% of the overall market, but far less of the Enterprise market.

I don’t see what Snowflake needs to do differently here. They are truly cloud agnostic and will run on whatever cloud the customer wants them to run. Furthermore, I suspect there are very very few GCP only enterprise level customers, and even a smaller number of those who don’t know about Snowflake already and would need Google to suggest Snowflake to them to consider it.

Snowflake has so many areas in which to expand that it needs to remain choosy about which it pursues. This is seen with its expanding focus for sales in different vertical markets. There are many more markets into which Snowflake could expand, but they just can’t do them all at once. So, they’ve chosen a bunch of the high-value verticals on which to focus, and expand that as they’re able to. At this point in their high growth, I don’t see how it makes sense for Snowflake to expend serious energy on Google’s business. The juicy high-value enterprise level customers are mostly not on GCP exclusively and there’s still plenty of those for Snowflake to go after. Why bother picking up pennies when Benjamin Franklin’s are lying right next to them and they’re lighter to carry?

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