The deployment of temporary motorized rifle of Russia’s Aerospace Forces to the Kursk region was first reported by independent investigative Russian outlet Important Stories. The unit, created between May and June, consists of personnel from security and logistics companies, engineers, mechanics, some officers, and servicemen from a Russian spaceport. There are also personnel from special warehouses of the Aerospace Forces and radar stations in Russia’s Voronezh region, who were previously in charge of manning Russia’s nuclear deterrent, the publication reported, citing a source familiar with the matter.
I hear something very like barrel bottom scraping mixed with Vegas show magic tiger hoopla, plus some ardent wishing for particularly good news in November and/or January….
But the same can be said of Ukraine.
However, Ukraine is conscripting and actually training younger troops, while Russia seems to be shoveling them into immediately lost battles. Also, the crucial long term level of radically modern electronic weapon design, construction, and deployment is NOT suited to top down dictation a la Russe, but fits perfectly with Ukrainian population 45 and under who have been Europeanizing ever since TV signals reached them from Warsaw and Bucharest.
As some Ukrainian soldiers have commented, the Russians have more men, than the Ukrainians have bullets. While the assault into Kursk is having some success, reports are that Ukraine is loosing ground along much of the front.
My guess is that the goal of this offensive wasn’t to keep some new territory, but to embarrass Russia and/or cause Russia to move troops away from Ukrainian territory. Either of those could provide some advantage.
Embarrassing high ranking military officers isn’t good for those officers’ careers (and possibly lives). It can also get an opponent to make emotional decisions rather than well-thought decisions.
And getting an opponent to re-deploy their forces may weaken them in some other area. If you can find a way to take advantage of that weakness, that’s an advantage.
I don’t buy the idea that this is a bargaining chip for some future cease fire negotiations. It’s too small an area. If they could somehow expand that to Kursk, things might be different. But even then, I don’t see Putin swapping territory they hold in Ukraine for Kursk. Connecting Crimea to mainland Russia by land is far more important. It might get a buffer town or two back, but not much more.
The crucial mainland Russia to Crimea connection is a heavy duty railroad through the Kursk Province, passing through the major hub at Belgorod. The roads in that area are unreliable and mostly cannot support trucks. Ukraine is close to sundering Russia’s connection to Crimea.
Of course, it may be just a bluff…. but it sure looks real.
I was not aware of that. I’m just an amateur looking at a map. My fault for not knowing more.
Still, I think the embarrassment factor and potential rearranging of Russian troops could be side benefits even if the rail line isn’t severed. Makes the offensive look even better to me.
Sounds like there may be another connection to that rail network. It appears that Ukraine has attacked an ammunition depot in the town of Ostrogozhsk last night or early this morning. Digging into maps again, there’s clearly a rail yard there, with a line that seems to connect to the one running south-ish from Kursk. In addition to the destruction of the weapons, damage to the rail line in that area might also put a crimp on Russia’s ability to resupply their troops further south.
Russia probably has lots of rails. Blowing up a rail line, once, would not result in much of a delay. The Ukrainians would need to occupy part of the line.
Blowing up a bridge, like the three Ukraine claims to have blown up, is more impactful.
Some years ago, Federal troop found that ripping up rails and tossing them aside upset the Confederates not one whit. The rails were simply put back in place, and respiked. The Confederates did not have an infinite supply of replacement rails however, so making “Sherman’s neckties” upset them more.
Russia built the Kerch Strait bridge to have better access to Crimea. While the bridge is not (yet) destroyed it seems the fire caused by hitting the train passing over it has reduced the strength of the steel to the point that Russia no longer dares use it for heavy trains.
Russia turned to railway ferries but…
Russia’s ferry, Conro Trader, on fire in Port Kavkaz on 22 August 2024.
That leaves only the overland route through the Kursk Oblast and Belgorod. While the war might look like a stalemate on the ground Ukraine has been destroying Russia’s logistics and resources to wage the war. Ukraine might not be able to win the land war but is sure can win the logistics war crippling Russia.
In addition, the Kursk Oblast invasion is making Russians (peons and oligarchs) aware of the realty of Putin’s war and weakening his power.
