SSYS Down -27% in AH trading

Hi all,

SSYS is one of my favourite ways to invest in 3D printing. It reported preliminary earnings AMC. See here:
http://investors.stratasys.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=8…

For 12-month ending 31 Dec 2014, it expects to report revenue of $750M and non-GAAP EPS of $2.00.

Let’s look back a year and compare this with the projection for 2015:


-------------------------------
Year    Revenue(M)  EPS Dil.($)
-------------------------------
2012      $215M       $1.49
2013      $484M       $1.89
2014      $750M       $2.00
2015      $950M       $2.15
-------------------------------

The YoY revenue growth has been slowing, but that’s expected. Between 2012 and 2013, it was 125%. That slowed to 55% between 2013 and 2014. Going into 2015, it’s expect to still be a decent 27% or so at the mid-point.

The company reports non-GAAP earnings by adding back the stock-based compensation, intangible amortisation expense, and merger related expenses (this is small relative to the others). What’s somewhat worrisome is the slowdown in non-GAAP earnings growth. While the top-line is growing, the bottomline is comparatively not moving because they need to spend to keep up and stay ahead of competition. Earnings growth is slowing down from 27% growth, down to 7.5% or so YoY growth.

Naturally, with the lowered expectations on earnings and lowered expectations on revenue growth, the stock took a beating. It’s down 27% or so in AH trading.

If this AH activity holds in normal hours tomorrow, we are looking at a stock that’s trading at 27x forward earnings. With revenues still growing at a 25+% rate, and revenues now hitting $1B the question is – is this a decent opportunity to add some to the stock? The stock hasn’t been this cheap in a while.

Anirban

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SSYS is (or perhaps was) one of Simon Erickson’s top 3 growth stocks for 2015.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/01/01/3-top-growt…

The earnings note says that MakerBot growth wasn’t that great. This was an acquisition sometime back. It looks like they are spending a whole bunch to streamline MakerBot. They also seem to suggest that they need to spend more in the coming years to maintain their lead. Amazon like strategy? At least, they are dropping monies to the bottomline.

I am going to see what’s said on the call.

It hadn’t been this cheap in a while though.

Anirban.

This is a classic example of how management’s presentation of non-GAAP earnings can be grossly abused.

GAAP net income was a loss of between $116 and $129 million. The non-GAAP net income number management hopes you look at was a profit of $102 to $105 million. So taking the mid-point of the ranges, the difference between non-GAAP and GAAP net income is a swing of around $224 million. What gives?

Well, it must be stock based compensation, right? Not really. Stock based comp is only $30 million of the $224 million difference. So what else is in there? A goodwill impairment charge of between $115 and $125 million. What is this? It means that management overpaid in previous acquisitions by between $115 million and $125 million and booked the overpayment as goodwill i.e. intangible assets. Since the cash and/or stock used in the acquisition was for the purchase of assets, nothing was expensed at the time. However, management is now saying that the acquired assets aren’t worth nearly what management paid, so management has to book a goodwill impairment and asset write-down of between $115 million and $125 million. This is management admitting that it took up to $125 million and essentially lit it on fire. But management didn’t have to record this as an expense when the acquisitions were made, and now management is backing out the write-down for its non-GAAP net income. This is management saying, “We wasted $125 million of your money, but please do not look at our GAAP earnings number where this expense is reflected. Please look only at our non-GAAP net income WHERE THIS EXPENSE WILL NEVER, EVER SHOW UP.”

OK, so we’ve covered around $155 million of the $224 difference. What else? There is also “intangible assets amortization expense” of $81 million that management is asking you to pretend does not exist. When a company buys fixed assets, GAAP allows management to spread the expense of the asset over a period of years (the asset’s useful life) instead of recording the full expense in the first year. This is called depreciation expense, and I don’t think even the most ardent GAAP detractors would go so far as to say that depreciation should be excluded from net income calculations. Well, the same thing exists for non-acquisition intangible assets, and instead of depreciation it is called amortization. So management used cash today and is allowed to spread the cost of the purchase over a series of years (this is the amortization expense). For its non-GAAP earnings however, management is asking you to pretend that this expense does not exist either. I should say that I have not reviewed the SEC filings for SSYS, so there could be something more going on here. But at first glance, it does not pass the smell test.

Oh, and there’s another $28 million of merger related expenses that management has backed out of its non-GAAP earnings. Management is saying that these expenses aren’t really business expenses, but rather one time expenses related to a merger or acquisition and therefore shouldn’t be included in “normal” earnings. I don’t follow SSYS, so I don’t know if this is legit or not. 3D Systems, SSYS’s major competitor, buys multiple companies each quarter. If their management team tried to back out merger-related expenses as “one-time events” it would be ridiculous.

So, to recap, we have over $220 million of items that are included as expenses in GAAP net income that management would have you ignore for its non-GAAP net income, of which only $30 million is stock based compensation. And of course these items that management excludes in its presentation of non-GAAP net income swing the quarter from a net loss to a net profit, allowing management to say “No, don’t look at our GAAP numbers which indicate a large loss, look instead at our non-GAAP numbers which show an amazing profit. Aren’t we a great management team?”

Moral of the story is that even if you’re fine with management backing out stock based comp to get to adjusted earnings, you should never assume that the only difference between your company’s GAAP and non-GAAP results are adjustments for stock based comp. This is a great example of how there can be WAY MORE than just stock based comp adjustments. And you would never know it unless you did the analysis I did above. That’s my problem with non-GAAP numbers - you just never know what deviations from GAAP are being presented in those non-GAAP numbers from company to company. At least GAAP is consistent for all companies, even if flawed.

I am not a shareholder in SSYS, but if I were, I’d have real trouble with a management team asking me to ignore $125 million impairment write-downs and $80 million of amortization expense. And as for the question of which set of numbers, GAAP or non-GAAP, presents a more true picture for SSYS? The GAAP numbers do, and it’s not close on this one.

Fletch

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But none of these backed out items (stock based compensation, depreciation, good will write down) are cash expenses. If something is paid for via stock, it’s accounted for via stock dilution.

Let’s take depreciation. Say a company spent $X to put fibre in the ground. The company will now depreciate the fibre over some number of years, while selling fibre to customers and getting an income. Over time, the fibre may need replacement, but that replacement will essentially be a new investment. The depreciation is there to show the value of the assets but it’s not having a bearing on the cash other than requiring new investment some years down the road.

I understand how GAAP is standardized. It allows some sort of Apples to Apples comparison between two companies but for many practical situations it just distorts the picture.

Anirban.

Hi Anirban,

The YoY revenue growth has been slowing, but that’s expected. Between 2012 and 2013, it was 125%.

They never had fast revenue growth. That must have been the huge merger with the Israeli company in 2013. I got out of this company long ago because the huge PE’s were never backed up by huge growth rates.

It’s down 27% or so in AH trading. If this AH activity holds in normal hours tomorrow, we are looking at a stock that’s trading at 27x forward earnings… is this a decent opportunity to add some to the stock? The stock hasn’t been this cheap in a while.

Anirban, it’s down for good reason, and this stock is not cheap at 27 times earnings with earnings growth forecast at 7.5%. Don’t get caught up in buying on bad news because it now looks “cheap”. This stock has been dropping like a lead balloon, having been as high as $135 and $130, when it had a PE of 80 or so and was growing at a slow normal rate.

Anirban, Don’t do it! Where do you see it going. Are you buying for a $5 bounce or do you really see this going somewhere?

Saul

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The earnings note says that MakerBot growth wasn’t that great.

Guess what? Every home is NOT going to have a personal 3D printer (at least not in our lifetime).

I’m with Fletch on this one. Don’t buy more. Look for a better place for your money!

Saul

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I am likely to add here. I started investing in SSYS several years ago with a small position that went up to become a multibagger and is now decimated by a third. Volatility in growth stocks has to be expected. Acquisitions, mergers, writedowns, compensation, unrealistic growth targets - all play a role. But I do know they make great products. I have used them heavily at work.

Valuation wise, this is still at a high. It can halve again and I will be buying more.

The only reason I may not buy or might even sell is if RB that follows this stock sees something fundamental changing in the business or management. RB had identified SSYS as a core but a high risk stock and it fits the bill. High risk stocks need small investments over time to build an effectively low cost basis over time.

Anurag

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I sold out of SSYS in the latter part of 2013, and explained that I was getting rid of all my stocks with ridiculous PE valuations, especially those with slow growth. I sold between $112 and $88 with an average price of $100. At the after hours price of $58 it was down 42% from my sell and down 57% from its high of $135. Just because MF says it’s the greatest thing since sliced white bread doesn’t mean you have to buy and hold forever.

Just sayin…

Saul

1 Like

I started investing in SSYS several years ago with a small position that went up to become a multibagger and is now decimated by a third.

Anurag, it’s down 57% from the high, not a third.

The only reason I may not buy or might even sell is if RB that follows this stock sees something fundamental changing in the business or management.

Anurag, the initial thesis was that this was going to an explosively growing company. That thesis seems to have exploded itself. Will RB say that? Of course not. They’ll find a new thesis. Heck, Westport is still listed as a buy on Stock Advisor at a 10th of the price it was at a year or two ago - with a thesis that evolved all the time.

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Saul

Anurag, it’s down 57% from the high, not a third.
At high it was ~4x for me.

You can criticize TMF as much as you want but what you can’t argue with is the public record of success for 13 years now. It is a public record that SA clocked nearly 14% annualized returns since 4/2002. RBS - 11%. Both these results handily beat any broad market index. Most memebers are barely able to match the market. Few entities or individuals have a public record as they go along.

I invested in SSYS in 2/2008 and as per RBS scorecard and my brokerage I am still 140% up even after todays 1/3rd collapse. Beauty of public record!

Will RB say that? Of course not.

You make it sound as if TMF has an ulterior agenda in keeping their stocks pumped up. It was identified as high risk ever since risk rating were put in place.

Heck, Westport is still listed as a buy on Stock Advisor at a 10th of the price it was at a year or two ago - with a thesis that evolved all the time.

Same deal. It was identified as high risk from the beginning. Theses do evolve over time.

I don’t think TMF has any agenda to stick with broken thesis or keep members misguided. Analysts and board members analyze every stock periodically and debate over it. Risk ratings are assigned on a transparent criteria.

Anurag

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I don’t think TMF has any agenda to stick with broken thesis or keep members misguided

Anurag, I never imagined such a thing! It’s just the natural human reluctance to admit that you’ve made a mistake…especially when other people have acted on your mistake and you feel responsible. It’s hard to do.

Saul

4 Likes

But none of these backed out items (stock based compensation, depreciation, good will write down) are cash expenses. If something is paid for via stock, it’s accounted for via stock dilution.

Let’s take depreciation. Say a company spent $X to put fibre in the ground. The company will now depreciate the fibre over some number of years, while selling fibre to customers and getting an income. Over time, the fibre may need replacement, but that replacement will essentially be a new investment. The depreciation is there to show the value of the assets but it’s not having a bearing on the cash other than requiring new investment some years down the road.

I understand how GAAP is standardized. It allows some sort of Apples to Apples comparison between two companies but for many practical situations it just distorts the picture.

Anirban,

I disagree. You say that none of these items are cash expenses. What do you call the $125 million that management spent on what turned out to be worthless acquisitions? It was absolutely a cash expense. That was $125 million spent on an asset that turned out to be worth much less than management thought. But no expense was booked at the time of purchase. So surely it should be recorded as an expense today. You can’t have management waste $125 million and not have it should up as an expense.

Depreciation and amortization are very real expenses, and they are cash-based. The difference is the cash is spend upfront, at the time of purchase. It is not recorded as an expense at the time of purchase, but rather as deprecation and amortization over a period of years. If the one-time cash spend is not included in earnings, yet you don’t ever include depreciation or amortization into income, how to do reflect the cash being spent? How can that not be an expense? It’s either an expense when you buy it, or it’s an expense over time. But either way cash has been used and an expense must be recorded.

In your example of fiber, if you don’t record an expense when the fiber is laid, and you don’t record the expense through depreciation, if you only looked at non-GAAP income you would get a massively distorted picture of the company, as if it never had to incur any expense whatsoever, or make any payments towards, what is likely its single most expensive and important asset. That would be the most distorted picture possible.

Fletch

2 Likes

Just because MF says it’s the greatest thing since sliced white bread doesn’t mean you have to buy and hold forever.

They don’t say that either. Can you show me any instance where this is said or practiced? The closest I found was Everlasting Portfolio where Tom intends to keep his holding for 5 years as a matter of policy.

Anurag, I never imagined such a thing! It’s just the natural human reluctance to admit that you’ve made a mistake…especially when other people have acted on your mistake and you feel responsible. It’s hard to do.

Again, you seem to be claiming that TMF knows that they made a mistake and won’t admit it while knowing it. In past, TMF has been open about admitting mistakes. The best example was Tom Gardner appearing in CNBC show years ago with a funny hat admitting his mistake on SLAB. So to reiterate, they may well have made a mistake on WPRT and many others and may admit that in future but the idea that they already know it and won’t admit it is unsubstantiated.

Saul, people respect you here. It is important to stay above board like TMF1000 by relying on factual information. I myself have been guilty many times and still do it - misinterpreting intentions of others.

Anurag

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Again, you seem to be claiming that TMF knows that they made a mistake and won’t admit it while knowing it.

Sorry Anurag, I was referring to each of us and our reluctance to admit TO OURSELVES, that we made a mistake. It’s not conscious. I’ve done it many times myself.

Can you show me any instance where this is said or practiced?

Yes, I would consider the lack of any exit strategy in SA and RB says, or at least implies subliminally, that you should buy and hold forever, with rare exceptions.

I will try to be kinder to the MF, but the MF is a very successful business, and very self-confident as an organization, and I don’t think they are affected at all by my occasional rants.

Best,

Saul

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Yes, I would consider the lack of any exit strategy in SA and RB says, or at least implies subliminally, that you should buy and hold forever, with rare exceptions.

Check facts, please. Here is SA exit strategy (http://newsletters.fool.com/18/help/index.aspx?source=isasit…)


When should I sell?

Knowing when to sell a stock requires that you monitor a company’s business and prospects for growth. We do that for you with all of our recommendations here at Stock Advisor.

We’ll recommend selling only when we think a stock will no longer outperform the market over the next three to five years. You won’t catch us trying to time the market, applying any type of technical analysis, or anything like that. When we do sell, it’s usually because one of two things has happened: either all of the good news is already factored into the stock’s price, or something material has changed at the company or in the business.

Tom watches the financials like a hawk. After all, his picks are based on detailed assumptions. Tom’s a patient man, but if a company fails to deliver — say, on cash flow growth — he will think hard about selling. David is more forgiving, more focused on the franchise than the relationship between the financials and the stock price.

And just so we’re clear: You will be the first to know when we are no longer recommending a stock and why. We’ll get the word to you in the newsletter, through our updates, and on our website.

Will you ever sell a Starter stock?

We’d be fools (with a lowercase f) to say we’d never sell a Starter stock. We will, however, reiterate that our list of Starters will change infrequently. These are our long-term winners, after all. That said, if our investing thesis changes for a stock in our Starter list, we will consider removing it — and alerting all our Stock Advisor members right away.


I will try to be kinder to the MF, but the MF is a very successful business, and very self-confident as an organization, and I don’t think they are affected at all by my occasional rants.

All that matters is be precise in what we say. You have seen how I have needled the advisors on GG/HG boards endlessly, critiqued the performance of Bill Mann, Fool Funds, MDP and I didn’t even spare Tom Gardner on EP boards. And you are right that your rants don’t dent TMF but imprecise statements can cause untold financial damage to many of the naive lurkers around here who could genuinely benefit from following TMF services in the intended manner. Trust me, that is a guilt you don’t want to live with.

I am yet to see a single person around here actually report outsized portfolio returns based on what you do (not what you say - you do say good stuff) and that is why for the benefit of all I have started the tracker spreadsheet of your actions on the other thread. Let us make people more successful than TMF following your actions and for free. That would be a great deed indeed and families will remember you for generation for creating wealth for them. No pressure.

Anurag

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I never understood the idea that every home would have a 3DP. A metal screw making machine would be handy too, but it’s easier and cheaper to to go to the hardware store when you want a screw. If they don’t have what you want, Amazon or eBay will.
It seems the market is slowly catching on that metal additive printing (Arcam especially) has little to do with consumer plastic 3DP because AMAVF is only down a bit today. Arcam earnings out 2/5/15

I have looked into SLM Solutions, a German company , involved in metal laser smelting. With it and Arcam have a similar percentage share of the metal 3DP market.But while sales are going up, it is losing money. So there is no evidence that a doubling of sales in the next couple of years won’t just lead to more losses. It is on the Frankfort exchange, symbol AM3D .

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Let’s take depreciation. Say a company spent $X to put fibre in the ground. The company will now depreciate the fibre over some number of years, while selling fibre to customers and getting an income. Over time, the fibre may need replacement, but that replacement will essentially be a new investment. The depreciation is there to show the value of the assets but it’s not having a bearing on the cash other than requiring new investment some years down the road.

Anirban.

I disagree. If the company is in the fiber business replacement fiber is replacement, not new investment. But that is not really the issue.

When the company bought the fiber with an expected ten year useful life it figured that during each one of those ten years it would have some revenue that is not pure profit, you have to deduct some of the capital value of the fiber, in this case 10%, otherwise your profit calculations are all wrong.

Let’s take the case where a company invests in non-physical assets (computer code), calls it R&D, and expenses it rather than capitalizes it. When the code is being written you have a huge expense and little revenue from it. Later you have pure revenue with no cost. But if instead of computer code you had built a smelter you would capitalize it and depreciate it. (Very not the same for different companies. That GAAP standardizes accounting between companies is an urban legend). Let’s take an example of a software company, say Microsoft. Having expensed Windows the day it was written, Widows appears on the books at ZERO VALUE. No matter how crappy it might be, there is no doubt that Windows is valuable. Suppose for the sake of argument that Oracle bought Microsoft. It would pay a few million for Windows which is valued at zero. That excess payment becomes Good Will on Oracle’s books while it was non-existent on Microsoft’s books. How is it possible that the same “thing” is nothing on Microsoft’s books but it is an asset (goodwill) Oracle’s books? Not very standard reporting at all.

Expensing certain types of R&D is nothing but a tax gimmick, a loophole, industrial policy, or successful lobbying – take your pick. When Congress wants to give industry a helping hand it authorizes “accelerated depreciation.” Expensing certain types of R&D is “instant depreciation.” It’s not good accounting, but tax policy.

My point is this: Originally accounting was designed to help owners and mangers run their business. Then the tax man found it a useful tool to assess taxes but that creates a conflict of interest. If you want less taxes you hide profits. Then the joint stock company was invented and a new conflict of interest developed between shareholders and managers. Then Congress decided that fairness mattered so they put a straightjacket on the accountants. Now we have three sets of books, one for the taxman, one for owners (GAAP), and one for managers (ADJUSTED).

BTW, did Stratasys overpay? I would say “yes” if it paid cash. But what if it paid with overpriced stock? :wink:

The bottom line is that you have to know your companies ONE BY ONE.

Denny (GAAP IS CRAP) Schlesinger
but beware “Adjusted CRAP!”

BTW, the fiscal year is totally arbitrary. Suppose the fiscal year were ten years and you installed the fiber in year one. At the end of the year it would be used up. No need to capitalize and depreciate, it would not affect your results. Depreciation is needed only when the useful life is longer than the fiscal year. Depreciation is an artifact to “synchronize” the “asynchronous” cash flow vs. cost.

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“when other people have acted on your mistake and you feel responsible” Which is why I no longer give market advice to friends and family.

Even if you are right, the stock goes and you sell, the friend may not. Or you may forget to tell them you have changed your mind.

I used to ride motorcycles and fly small aircraft on instruments in limited visibility and survived both but it’s not something I would suggest others do.

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