Suggestions for the weekend

Suggestions for the weekend.

This was a very good week for us. I started the week up 13.1% for the year to date and finished the week up 20.4%. That really is a good week for me.

A little homework for the weekend: However, even after that nice bounce there are some real bargains out there. How can that be? Well lots of our stocks posted great earnings but the stock price didn’t go up, or even sold off because earnings didn’t go up as much as some analyst expected, or because of other worries. Here are some stocks I’m in which seem like real bargains (to me). I’ll list them starting with the lowest PE first, followed by their rate of growth of earnings this quarter, and for the trailing 12 months. Please evaluate them for yourselves! They may not be your kind of stock at all!

LGIH		14.2
SWKS		16.3
SNCR		17.3
BOFI		17.8
INBK		17.9
AMBA	        18.4
CNCR		20.4
SEDG		21.4

	 **% growth of earnings for the quarter** 
LGIH		53%
SWKS		36%
SNCR		26%
BOFI		33%
INBK		82%
AMBA           138%  (Their Q ends in Oct so this is their July Q)
CNCR		24%
SEDG	       500% (Off a small base of 6 cents, to 36 cents)

	**% growth of 12 month trailing earnings** 
LGIH		50%
SWKS		63%
SNCR		29%
BOFI		37%
INBK	       118%
AMBA           136%  (Their Q ends in Oct so this is their July Q)
CNCR		64%
SEDG	       ???%   (I get them at positive 96 cents, up from a loss the 12 months before)

		**Risks and worries**
LGIH		People will stop buying houses because the economy will tank. But great employment figures.
SWKS		Commoditization, no more new cell phones, AAPL moving to someone else. All unlikely. Amazingly low price
SNCR		Just not a sexy stock
BOFI		REAL risks here that have been extensively discussed on the board
INBK		Very small bank
AMBA          	I consider REAL risks here too (GPRO), but possible lot of growth.
CNCR		Possible political risk but hard to say.
SEDG	        Dominates its field, but people worry about sun power after tax breaks disappear.

Have a fun weekend!


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I think this is an incredibly valuable post! Great summary of where things currently stand and leaving it up to the reader to determine what to do with the info.

As always, thanks!




Am I right that you have CNCR, the ETF there and it’s not a typo? I really like this one and have started a position myself a week or two ago when I first heard about it.

I really like it for exposure to the biotech sector because it has some of the large, cash generating companies as well as the smaller innovative companies. It is also equal weighted so wen some of these tiny companies have a breakthrough moonshot, they will move the needle on it.

I do hate the cost of healthcare and the high priced drug narrative around a lot of bio, but this fund also has companies doing different work like this -…

This is a much easier way to have exposure to the sector without single stock exposure to the blowups like VRX and is less correlated to the large sector fund like IBB. Plus evaluating a biotech company is a skillset that I don’t have, but I can look at the charts and trends of a lot of the holdings and looks at what they do, and I like this fund as good exposure to that space while lowering the risk.


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I also really like AMBA here as it has potential for a face ripper of a short covering induced rally. I may add more in spite of already haveing a bunch both from higher and lower than here. I think it’s much bigger than just a GPRO story.

INBK is a nice slow and steady one. If rates ever get raised (which I don’t think will happen in any meaningful way), it will have a nice catalyst, but is on a good path.

LGIH is interesting, considering it, but need to do some research. Potential catalyst - people may be more apt to buy homes if they think rates will rise and mortgages will cost more



Just curious, but no SKX? That wouldn’t make your weekend study list?

  • Matt

LGIH is interesting, considering it, but need to do some research. Potential catalyst - people may be more apt to buy homes if they think rates will rise and mortgages will cost more

Mike, their main discriminator is the customer they court. First they go and build inexpensive houses in parts of the country where you can do that. They have a small variety of floor plans so they can efficiently create cookie-cutter houses. Next they go after apartment dwellers that can afford and LGI Home for less than their current rent. They get these people preapproved in the office than walk to a house and say “this can not be yours for the same price as rent”. As you see it has been pretty effective and not something the big boys are really doing. Rent has been going up across the country so that helps them. I read an IBD article indicating their offices can be standing room only on the weekends. I guess the millennials are finally starting to settle down a bit.

I have owned this for a bit and really like it and clearly Saul owns it. Very small, but growing fast now. I don’t think interest rates will rise fast enough to impact them.

There are a couple detailed posts earlier on if you can figure out how to effectively search this board. And let me know because I always forget how to limit a search to a specific board :wink: