Syria-Winners & Losers

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/12/syria-winner-and-losers-or-both.html

Israel is for now the big winner in Syria. But with restless Jihadists now right on its border it remains to be seen for how long that will hold

The U.S. is bombing the central desert of Syria. It claims to strike ISIS but the real target is any local (Arab) resistance which could prevent a connection between the U.S. controlled east of Syria with the Israel controlled south-west. There may well be plans to further build this connection into an Eretz Israel, a Zionist controlled state “from the river to the sea”.

Turkey has had and has a big role in the attack on Syria. It is financing and controlling the ‘Syrian National Army’ (previously the Free Syrian Army), which it is mainly using to fight Kurdish separatists in Syria.

There are some 3 to 5 million Syrian refugees in Turkey which the wannabe-Sultan Erdogan wants, for domestic political reasons, to return to Syria. The evolving chaos will not permit that.

Turkey had nurtured and pushed the al-Qaeda derived Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to take Aleppo. It did not expect it to go any further. The fall of Syria is now becoming a problem for Turkey as the U.S. is taking control of it. Washington will try to use HTS for its own interests which are, said mildly, not necessary compatible with whatever Turkey may want to do.

A primary target for Turkey are the Kurdish insurgents within Turkey and their support from the Kurds in Syria. Organized as the Syrian Democratic Forces the Kurds are sponsored and controlled by the United States. The SDF are already fighting Erdogan’s SNA and any further Turkish intrusion into Syria will be confronted by them.

Despite having a $10 million award on its head HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Golani is currently played up by western media as the unifying and tolerant new leader of Syria. But his HTS is itself a coalition of hardline Jihadists from various countries. There is little left to loot in Syria and as soon as those resources run out the fighting within HTS will begin.

There will be U.S. pressure on any new leadership in Syria to kick the Russians out. However any new leadership in Syria, if it is smart, will want to keep the Russians in. It is never bad to have an alternative choice should one eventually need one. Russia may well stay in Latakia for years to come.

The author predicts the turmoil in the Middle East will delay the US-China confrontation. Thus making China, like Israel, a temporary winner.

The president-elect doesn’t want to become involved in Syria. He will be pushed by the State Dept & Defense Dept to intervene just as Obama was pushed.

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The American revolution was what it was. No diff.

The new Syria will resent Iran and Russia. Zero trust.

SA and others trust Israel.

The issue for the Palestinians on the tribal or on a national level peace can be negotiated fairly. The current PLA and Hamas will purposely not become national governments and are not tribal governments.

The minority of Palestinians stuck with the PLA and Hamas are being harmed by the declared endless war. While the PLA has not declared much of the West Bank is armed and not simply innocent.

Dragging this out has cost the Palestinians.

You think Mexico dragging out a war with the USA would be good for the Mexicans? Patience runs thin in Israel. Its been decades.

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TFG has publicly said the US has no role. That could be intended as a green light for Turkey. As noted before, Turkey has made armed incursions into Syria and Iraq before, because the local governments lacked the ability to prevent it.

Meanwhile, Israel pushing it’s “security zone” farther into Syria.

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https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/syria-assad-power-vacuum-9f9e3067
The unexpectedly swift collapse of the Assad regime has left a vacuum in Syria. The powerful militaries arrayed around its borders are rushing to fill it.

The U.S. dispatched B-52 bombers to carry out airstrikes against more than 75 Islamic State targets in central Syria. Rebels backed by Turkey attacked Kurdish forces and seized territory in the country’s north. And Israel has bombed hundreds of Syrian military targets across the country, methodically demolishing the capabilities of a longtime enemy.

The incursions by various powers ticking off items on long-held wish lists underscore the fragility of the new Syria, where rebel factions that ended more than five decades of Assad family rule are maneuvering for leverage and control. Their opportunistic pursuit of national interests complicates life for the main rebel group that spearheaded the lightning offensive, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, as it works to set up an interim government. While Assad’s ouster weakened the sway of U.S. foes Russia and Iran in the strategically located country, the jockeying could put North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally Turkey on a collision course with U.S. and Israeli interests.

“Each actor in Syria is scrambling to redraw the map after the collapse of the Assad regime.

Israel wants to eliminate all the rebel groups to add portions of Syria to the greater Israel state.
The US supports Kurdish rebel group/ And Turkey wishes to eliminate that group. And drive the Syrian refugees back into Syria.
Quite a mess.

Fighting between Turkish-backed and Kurdish-led forces in northern Syria has left 218 people dead in just three days, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor reported on Tuesday.

The British-based monitor said that at least “218 members of pro-Kurdish forces and pro-Ankara factions were killed during three days of fighting in and around Manbij” where Turkish-backed factions launched an offensive.

The moonofalabama made an interesting observation that I believe is spot on:
I was pondering the longe term (20+ years) consequences of the fall of Syria but have failed to come up with sensible predictions.

There are too many interests and nations involved, too many hot spots ready to explode.

But what I find most difficult to predict is the consequence of the systematic de-secularization we can see in the wider area.

Each government that falls seems to get replaced by a more religiously motivated one (see Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, Israel, Syria …).

The powers of eschatological (miss-)interpretations of various scriptures is difficult to estimate.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/12/after-syria-.html

It would seem that all the foreign meddling in the Middle East has driven it toward more radical Islamic fundamentalism than formation of representative governments. Just think of the trillions of dollars wasted there.

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Syria will turn out well. Syria is the centerpiece. The Levant is Greater Syria. There are lessons from the Iranian experiences. The lessons are not lost on the Syrians who prefer a secular government.

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How much logic was applied to carving up the area a century ago, after the Ottoman Empire fell? Probably most of the state actors have read Bolton’s thinking, which I posted about yesterday…especially Turkey “we get control of all the Kurd areas, and oil? Yeah!”

So everyone is sort of waiting for TFG to take office, and pull all the US troops out of the way, so the dismemberment of Syria can start in earnest.

Steve

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The Turkish and Israelis do not want permanent positions in Syria. Other than Israel on the Golan.

Neither one wants an endless war with the Syrians. Both are making their points that Syria should not start a war with them.

The Syrians recognize Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah are the problems. Russia may need the Israelis and Turkey to tell them to leave. It is a big deal.

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Is there a “Syria”? Are there “Syrians”, vs a randomly drawn set of lines surrounding parts of several different tribes?

Steve

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Greater Syria is the Levant. In pragmatic terms, the current borders are good enough.

The tribes are dispersed in their point of view. Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, and Syria make up the Levant, plus a bit of Kurdistan.

Syria is not getting the other three nations under their tent.

The history of Iran since 1979 makes a big difference here. Syria needs the West on board to keep Russia out. Iran out as well. That is the main goal for the rebels. Again Syria has a history of secularism.

The history of Jordan 65% Palestinian also matters. Jordan is an Israeli satellite state. Many in Syria would prefer that as well. Israel guarantees far more freedom and prosperity.

Do the Israelis need to be Muslim? Is that all anyone sees? Israel is an Arab state. The religion on some levels does not matter and should not matter.

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I believe there was a Syria in biblical times criss-crossed by conquering armies from all points of the compass. Nothing much has changed.

Am I right?

The Captain

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