Tesla Deliveries up 87% in 2021

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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Another marker in the ongoing surge of EVs into the marketplace, with Tesla retaining its preeminence in the movement.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/02/business/tesla-sales.html…

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Tesla reported Sunday that it delivered 936,000 cars in 2021, an 87 percent increase from the year before, despite the computer chip shortage that has disrupted auto production around the world.

In the fourth quarter alone, the company delivered more than 308,000 vehicles, a 71 percent increase from the quarter a year earlier. The overwhelming share of the deliveries were of the Model 3 sedan and the Model Y hatchback.

Tesla does not break out its deliveries by country. Much of its recent growth has been propelled by sales in Europe and China.
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Personally I’ve lusted after a Tesla ever since they introduced the Roadster way back in 2008. More recently with the Model 3 it’s become an option on the outside edge of what I would practically spend money on. I don’t really want a sedan though, preferring a hatchback. Google tells me that the new Model 3s start at $45k, which is sad. I wish they’d held the line at $35k.

I was hoping the Model Y would be more of practical option by now, but it’s far more expensive than I could justify, and the reliability is bad, so can’t do it. Consumer Reports now has reliability poll results for the 2021 Model Y: it’s incrementally improved from their lowest rating 1/5 (much worse than average) last year, up to 2/5 (worse than average). Glad to see some improvement but I won’t consider buying a car without at least average reliability results. Google tells me Model Ys start at $60k? Yikes, I thought they were supposed to be at least somewhat affordable? Maybe in a few years after the Austin plant is cranking out full volume with various improvements to the Model Y design and production, and a more balanced supply/demand equation, they will bring the price back down.

I guess a used Model 3 is on the outside edge of what I might consider for my next car, and it does meet the average reliability criterium, but realistically speaking something like the Chevy Bolt, cheaper and more practical than the Model 3, will be my choice, or if availability and price improves on the new Toyota RAV4 Plug-in Hybrid while the full $7500 tax credit is still in place, I could consider splurging on that.

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Another marker in the ongoing surge of EVs into the marketplace, with Tesla retaining its preeminence in the movement.

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That is why Tesla stock has been doing so well.

https://ir.tesla.com/#tab-quarterly-disclosure

https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2021-vehicle-pro…

Jaak

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I was hoping the Model Y would be more of practical option by now, but it’s far more expensive than I could justify, and the reliability is bad, so can’t do it. Consumer Reports…

I just got a new Model Y. I am quite certain that just like the three other Teslas I have owned, it will be essentially problem free. Consumer Reports’ notion of “reliability” is pretty much nonsense, especially when it comes to Teslas. As the most glaring example, absolutely the best thing about Teslas is that the car keeps getting better due to software updates that add and improve features. Often, if there is any problem, it can get fixed by updating the software. Yet CR ignores this because they don’t have any category to put it in.

So tell me, if there is a “reliability” issue that I never notice and that disappears without my having to do anything, is there actually any issue?

Another example. Last week I got notified about a recall on my 2017 Model 3. It involves inspecting a trunk latch and camera wiring and possibly tweaking them if there is a problem. What will it take to get it taken care of? 1) I use Tesla’s app on my phone to tell them I want it fixed. 2) They give me an appointment when I want it and where I want it done. 3) They send a mobile repair person to fix it. I can have it done at home, at work, when I’m in another state on a road trip, whatever. I don’t even have to be where the car is. So it’s another “reliability” issue I neither experience myself nor even notice much the process of it getting fixed. And, like most recalls, this is proactive and preventative since nobody has actually had a problem yet.

But yes, the Model Y is expensive. Highly recommend buying it the way I buy all my Teslas: put the money you’re willing to spend on a car into TSLA. When the profits get to the point where you can buy the Tesla vehicle you want, sell the stock and buy the car. Don’t forget to make enough profit to cover your taxes.

-IGU-

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There is nothing wrong with Consumer Reports reliability survey. Other Tesla models have done just fine. We’ve talked about this before, and you’re being oblivious to the myriad reports of problems with the Model Y. CR say the Model Y has quality/reliability problems because their subscribers who own Model Ys tell them that. The problems they report on the Model Y have also been described in a ton of reporting over the past few years.

The 4 areas flagged as ‘much worse than average’, 1/5, on 2020 Model Ys, which earned them their overall 1/5 rating were: Climate Control, Paint/Trim, Body Integrity, and Body Hardware. But I’m sure owners can just download an update for their crappy paint job and ill-fitting hardware? It also polled below average on Power Equipment.

Below average areas on the 2021 Model Y were: Climate System, Body Hardware, and Power Equipment. They had zero 1/5 ‘much below average’ areas, so that’s a big and welcome improvement. Paint/Trim went from 1/5 to 4/5, so that’s great.

Good to see progress. I’m sure your late 2021 Model Y will be great, and by now they have probably brought them up to industry average, possibly even better, or maybe still worse than average. It’s a great car anyway, I have no doubt.

Your 2017 Model 3 didn’t get enough survey responses to be rated by CR for reliability, but the 2018 was rated 4/5, above average … but that’s just nonsense, right?

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There is nothing wrong with Consumer Reports reliability survey… Your 2017 Model 3 didn’t get enough survey responses to be rated by CR for reliability, but the 2018 was rated 4/5, above average … but that’s just nonsense, right?

Yes, good or bad from CR is all just nonsense when it gets out of their comfort zone. What they are doing is equivalent to providing ratings for iPhones based on criteria developed for landlines. They pretty much say things like: the ring really isn’t loud enough to be heard from the next room, but say nothing about it being able to be carried around in your pocket. It’s just stupid. They don’t know how to measure it in any way that reflects the ownership experience.

The climate system, by the way, is absolutely better by far than any ICE car. If it barely worked at all it would be starting out best. Things like: you can control it remotely from the app, direct air where you want without any physical adjustments, you can run it in a closed garage, and leave it running when you are leaving the car for an hour. Not to mention genius stuff like Dog Mode and Camp Mode, which appeared as software updates. It’s next level. So CR is just useless and irrelevant. They don’t even know what they aren’t measuring.

Paying attention to CR when thinking about buying a Tesla is putting your faith where it isn’t warranted in the slightest. Simply never needing to go to a gas station ever again is worth more than every single “reliability” issue they can come up with. Ask any Tesla owner. But don’t ask CR because they won’t tell you and they don’t measure that.

-IGU-
(knows better)

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And now, as sure as the clock will strike 12 twice today, this recall for the rear camera wire potential breakage from repeated trunk opening and closing will detonate whatever rating CR has to date put on the car.

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It seems to me most the people who trash Consumer Reports reliability ratings take no time to try to understand where they come from.

i.e. FlyingCircus opined “And now, as sure as the clock will strike 12 twice today, this recall for the rear camera wire potential breakage from repeated trunk opening and closing will detonate whatever rating CR has to date put on the car.”

But, a quick look at CR’s Car Reliability FAQ tells us

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We ask members to note any problems with their vehicles that occurred in the previous 12 months. They are asked to identify problems that they considered serious (because of cost, failure, safety, or downtime). We ask them to include problems covered by warranty, but not the ones resulting from accident damage or due solely to recall.
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An owner of a Model 3 that has to have their car checked or repaired for this recall who has no other inconvenience shouldn’t report it as a problem. If an owner has actually had a problem from this issue, like their rear camera did fail, they should report a problem.

Every manufacturer plays by the same rules. If Tesla’s rating ends up getting dinged a bit by their owners because they had a manufacturing problem with their rear camera cord’s placement or attachment, then that is the result of Tesla’s manufacturing problem and is just. Same thing would happen to BMW or any other manufacturer. Why do people act like Tesla is persecuted here? I don’t get it.

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Why do people act like Tesla is persecuted here? I don’t get it.

A short answer would be that it is the same reason that people are afraid of solar panels, power storage systems and wind turbines. It is all new tech. Many people had the same reaction to microwave ovens, cell phones and Covid vaccines.

NH

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IGU continues his uninformed ranting about Consumer Reports reliability ratings:

Yes, good or bad from CR is all just nonsense when it gets out of their comfort zone. What they are doing is equivalent to providing ratings for iPhones based on criteria developed for landlines. … It’s just stupid. They don’t know how to measure it in any way that reflects the ownership experience.

This is total BS, because the reliability ratings come from … wait for it … OWNERS reporting on PROBLEMS with the cars they have EXPERIENCE OWNING.

A car is still a car. Sure EVs like Tesla have big advantages on some things. But, if it comes delivered with a crappy paint job, like tens or hundreds of thousands of Model Ys were, then the OWNERS report to CR about their EXPERIENCE and CR reports to their subscribers that 2020 Model Ys had much below average quality/reliability in the Paint/Trim category.

It’s not hard to understand, and I’m sure you’ve read about the paint problems, but for some reason you like to pretend Consumer Reports shouldn’t be dinging Model Y for the blatant manufacturing problems that manifested in this problem and others.

I don’t know what issues with the climate system OWNERS reported to CR that resulted in the ding in that category, but there’s no reason to pretend that OWNERS reporting PROBLEMS with the climate system and CR passing along those reports via the reliability ratings is anything other than fair reporting.

If you’d like to educate yourself more on what the CR Reliability Ratings are and are not, you can find info here: https://www.consumerreports.org/car-reliability-owner-satisf…

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Consumer Reports should be read with a grain of salt because there was Maytag washer issue that I witnessed. First they gave a glowing review to a washer that hadn’t been released yet, by Maytag, to the general public. Then the same machine was completely recalled because of electronic control issues that would fry the door latch and back panel.

This problem was so expensive that the Maytag Company ended up being bought at a discount by Whirlpool.

This type of problem had previously happened with a Zenith TV that had gotten good reviews by CR only to catch fire even if it was shut off.

NH

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There you go again, Ben.

I’m not “opining” that Tesla is being persecuted.
I’m “opining” - agreeing with the other poster - that Consumer Reports’ rating system is flawed, for the reasons in that other post. And, Consumer Reports watches recall notices universally, it’s not exclusively up to consumers to choose to report problems and it’s not unique to Tesla - we’re highly aware of that.

FC

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Consumer Reports should be read with a grain of salt because there was Maytag washer issue that I witnessed. First they gave a glowing review to a washer that hadn’t been released yet, by Maytag, to the general public. Then the same machine was completely recalled because of electronic control issues that would fry the door latch and back panel.

Oh, absolutely. In some cases they’ll give a new product from a brand with a good reliability history a good review assuming it will have the brand’s customary reliability and then it doesn’t work out, presumably like this Maytag incident.

Take their recommendations with a grain of salt, to be sure, but they are a non-profit trying to give good guidance to consumers, and I’ve found they’re worth the fairly affordable online subscription.

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One might observe that Consumer Reports does not seem to be as good at evaluating anything complex as one wishes they were. The issue is not specific to Tesla. Tesla makes things a bit worse because it is different … a recall that is fixed in a few days with an over the air software update is a very different animal than one that requires every car in the class to go to the dealer. Likewise those fixed by mobile teams so that the owner is not inconvenienced in the slightest. But, the underlying issue is that they are self-impressed and don’t realize that their current tools are not providing the right perspective for the job.

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There’s not much that can be done with sloppy paint/poor paint on a new car short of a major repainting of whole car.

Telsa’s been dinged on this now for current production.

t.

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IGU continues his uninformed ranting about Consumer Reports reliability ratings

Informed enough that I know that can usefully read CR about things that are low tech and haven’t changed in years, but can’t read about high tech and things that are cutting edge. CR has been this way for decades.

This is total BS, because the reliability ratings come from … wait for it … OWNERS reporting on PROBLEMS with the cars they have EXPERIENCE OWNING.

See, that’s where you are completely wrong. The data comes from those people. But the filters on collecting the data (i.e. the questions that are asked), and the tabulation and interpretation of the data (i.e. deciding what matters), is all CR.

Examples abound. CR is not just reporting truth from owners, they are shaping and determining what they think is truth, and then deciding what truths to report.

As another thing to consider, CR is locked into the notion of model years because that’s the way things have always been. Tesla does continuous improvement. A car built a week ago might have a dozen differences from one built this week. The Model Y I just got a week ago just missed the switch to a new entertainment computer and 12V battery. In six months there will be hundreds of differences. No real mechanical problem persists for long.

As to paint issues, CR might be right. But, of course, that has nothing to do with reliability. Paint issues will never leave you stuck on the side of the highway. I’ve read lots of complaints about paint, but that’s because I’m reading about Teslas a lot. Seems to me I see more about Model 3 and Model S than Model Y, but that’s just an impression. The reality in my universe is that I don’t worry about scratches and random imperfections because every car gets imperfect pretty quickly unless you are obsessive about it. YMMV.

-IGU-

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telegraph (always wrong all the time) writes:
There’s not much that can be done with sloppy paint/poor paint on a new car short of a major repainting of whole car.

Get a wrap. All the best people do.

Telsa’s been dinged on this now for current production.

No. Reliable source or it’s just BS. You personally are not a reliable source (see above).

-IGU-

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I’m “opining” - agreeing with the other poster - that Consumer Reports’ rating system is flawed, for the reasons in that other post. And, Consumer Reports watches recall notices universally, it’s not exclusively up to consumers to choose to report problems and it’s not unique to Tesla - we’re highly aware of that.

Alright, you’ve shared your opinion that:
this recall for the rear camera wire potential breakage from repeated trunk opening and closing will detonate whatever rating CR has to date put on the car.

I disagree. The recall affects Model 3s built 2017-2020. Let’s watch and revisit. How long do you think it will take for the rating to blow up? And while we’re at it, which rating are you talking about? I’ve been discussing the reliability ratings, but they also have an overall rating for the car.

Since we’ve been discussing reliability ratings, that’s what I assume you are talking about and here’s the current Model 3 ratings: 2017 - 4/5, 2018 - 4/5, 2019 - 3/5, 2020 3/5, and for good measure: 2021 - 3/5, predicted 2022 - 3/5.

No sign of any ‘detonation’ yet.

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Tesla sales & deliveries furnished while majors sales fell. How was Tesla able to perform such a feat in supply chain h3ll?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/explainer-tesla-weathered-glo…
Tesla told some customers they could take vehicle delivery with some missing parts, such as Bluetooth chips and USB ports. Tesla also removed some features such as radar sensors and lumbar support for front passenger seats, which made the car less complicated to build. Tesla did not respond to Reuters’ request for comments.

Tesla also increased vehicle prices to address higher costs, including “expedite costs” for parts. American consumers have to wait for seven months if they order a Model Y version, whose prices went up 18% last year.

Tesla chief executive Elon Musk said Tesla was also able to substitute alternative chips for some that were in short supply. Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess said Tesla’s ability to rewrite software to support the new chips in 2-3 weeks was impressive.

Tesla designs more hardware and writes more software than many rivals, who rely on auto suppliers’ efforts.

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Revisiting a discussion about Tesla and Consumer Reports, like I said I would.

FlyingCircus wrote on January 3rd 2022: And now, as sure as the clock will strike 12 twice today, this recall for the rear camera wire potential breakage from repeated trunk opening and closing will detonate whatever rating CR has to date put on the car.

I disagreed, pointing out that the Consumer Reports reliability ratings aren’t supposed to reflect recalls, and they instead reflect complaints that owners have with the cars. I wrote:

The recall affects Model 3s built 2017-2020. Let’s watch and revisit…
Since we’ve been discussing reliability ratings, that’s what I assume you are talking about and here’s the current Model 3 ratings: 2017 - 4/5, 2018 - 4/5, 2019 - 3/5, 2020 3/5, and for good measure: 2021 - 3/5, predicted 2022 - 3/5.

Today 3/7/2022, those ratings for the Model 3 remain exactly the same. No ‘detonation’ from the recall.

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