Tesla Sales in CA down 10% 4th qtr

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-california-registrations-fall-first-time-since-pandemic-2024-01-30/

Tesla 4th qtr sales were 47,592 vs 52,782.

Tesla blames rising interest rates but some say buyer alienated by his comments that sound antisemitic though he denies that is true. Problems at X also a factor.

Price cuts also hurt resale value making purchase less attractive. And there is new competition.

In 2023 annual sales increased by 24.6%. Tesla lost 10.5% market share.

Tesla sold 60.5% of EVs in California. The leader by far. 13% of total vehicle sales.

Model Y & S top sellers in CA by a wide margin.

Hybrids are gaining share from 13.3% last yr vs 8.7% year before.

Battery electrics were 21.1% 4th qtr down from 22.3%.

5 Likes

Which news to pay attention to? Market leader or falling quarterly sales?

The Captain

2 Likes

Depends if you want to buy or sell shares. I can say working at a place that is the market leader, losing some market share with more or less flat quarterly sales… it would be a difficult to say buy now.

That’s not relying on data but on personal bias.

The market share argument has a major flaw. Say you sell 100 units and you have 100% marketshare. Next year you sell 200 units while a startup sells 20 units. You have grown by 100% yet your marketshare has fallen from 100% to just 90.9%

The saving grace of your argument is “with more or less flat quarterly sales…” Repeat the above arithmetic:

Say you sell 100 units and you have 100% marketshare. Next year you sell 110 units while a startup sell 20 units. You have grown by 10% yet your marketshare has fallen from 100% to just 84.6%

Now consider the TAM of all vehicles, not just EVs. EVs grew, total sales shrank. Your share of TAM grew despite losing EV marketshare.

The Captain

4 Likes

From the linked article:

Tesla’s Model Y and Model 3 were the top selling light truck and sedan in California for the year, respectively, by wide margins.

The Model Y is nothing like a light truck.

I suspect this is the category in the data base rather than a statement about Model’s S & Y. Is an SUV a light truck? What exactly is a “cross over?”

1 Like

No.‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎ ‎‎‎