Tesla to $400 and Far Beyond...?

I left this on the TSLA SA Board earlier today and am reposting here, to my favorite Board…

I have to say I have been thinking Tesla’s potential is limitless for some time…What an incredible 2 years it has been. And the scary thing is there is an ENORMOUS long road of growth ahead…

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2271013-tesla-to-400-if-its-…

…"This isn’t just about cars, this is about pioneering an industry and leading the charge. Tesla is going to be synonymous with electric cars in the future the same way that “Google” is synonymous with searching for something on the internet and “Kleenex” is synonymous with a tissue.

Lest we forget we are offered yet another reason that Tesla could become a commodity in the future. As the tension in Iraq start to rise again, talks have been about nothing but the increasing price of oil. As oil prices increase, more and more people are going to see electric vehicles as an attractive alternative.

That coming brand recognition as being the best in their field could easily make Tesla worth the same as Ford or GM on paper just a couple of years from now. It’s going to be whether or not Tesla branches out and continues to grow - maybe even outside of the “vehicle production” niche, that will determine exactly how much the company could be worth in the future.

With Musk’s big thinking, would it surprise anyone if Tesla was the biggest company in the world ten years from now? Can’t say it would surprise me.

If the past record of the company is going to be an indication of future progress, Tesla has a real shot at $400 no doubt.

Stay thirsty, Mr. Musk. Stay thirsty…"

cont’d

–Vic

2 Likes

Vic,

You seem to be exuberant about TSLA. I like the company and how can one not admire Elon Musk. I do not own the stock and I have no intention of buying it. The price seems very expensive and appears to have built in many future positive developments which haven’t happened and may never happen. Telsa has a lot of hype. Perhaps the stock will be worth $400 one day but I am not willing to pay even $200 for shares. There are so many other great companies that are well managed, growing fast, and reasonably priced. Telsa has the first two but not the third. One does not need to invest in companies that are based on a hope and a dream in order to make large returns. We should remember to not only look at the potential but also the recent earnings and sales performance coupled with the cost to buy continued future growth.

Chris

1 Like

re: TSLA

With my many shares via the GREEN Bar / RED Bar technique, I will be getting my baby in July …http://www.teslamotors.com/models P85 | 21"rims

Quillnpenn - “In tribute to all who seek to record their ideas and share them with others” by “Buying from the Scared, Selling to the Greedy”

1 Like

Perhaps the stock will be worth $400 one day but I am not willing to pay even $200 for shares.

Hi GauchoChris,

What would you pay for a share? I agree that at some point it has to come down to earth no matter how many of us think they will reach their future potential (I’m in at $150) and if you bought at____ (fill in a metric here if you wish), you might be value trapped for a long time.

So I guess for a stock like this, one would have to first develop a reasonable price/share number, (I read somewhere that a price to sales of no more than 15 for a momentum stock seemed reasonable) and then determine how much of a premium you would be willing to pay, if any, due to the disruptive nature of his business which basically means, it’s quite unpredictable where this juggernaut might end up.

Do you have a metric you use for special stocks that permit a higher buy in price than a fundamental analysis would suggest? We wrestle a lot with this question so it would be nice to have some parameters to think about.
Mykie

1 Like

Hi Vic,

I see you are posting after a while. Are you still in INBK? You may also be interested in SQBK and SIVB …

Now, back to TSLA. My 2 cents. We can’t even imagine where Tesla is headed next as long as Elon is at helm. It is on its way to disrupt the car market in a big way. But, I know this is going to be a very volatile stock, and I really like how Alex is handling the stock over at Stock Advisor.

This is a stock that I would gradually ease into. I missed the initial run-up because I didn’t do the due diligence to get the “story”. Silly me! Anyways, once I realised what was going on, I took an initial position at $90 and another addition around $115. My aggregate TSLA position is up 100%. As of now, my mental buy price is around $150 - $160. I have also made a killing via Options, which have netted just as much in gains as my actual stock position is up, so effectively I 'm up 3x on TSLA.

If the stock drops around $180 or so, I will get busy with options, writing puts, and look to add around the $160 mark.

Anirban

Very long TSLA!

3 Likes
Mykie,

You need to decide what price you are willing to pay. I think it's a mistake, though, to consider the $150 price that you paid as a decision factor for future action. Why should it matter what you paid? Focus on the current price versus your perceived value and the future prospects. 

Personally, I try to avoid paying a premium (I like discounts....like when AFOP was at $12, or SYNA below $60, or UBNT around $30-32). Such discounts were big opportunities and taking advantage at such times can lead to huge returns. I may pay a premium to get into a stock that I don't own especially if I think the prospects look great. For instance, I recently opened positions in PFIE and AIOCF. In both cases I bought at prices that were higher than I wanted to. It was especially hard to pull the trigger after I saw large price increases in each of those 2 stocks. But my positions are not huge and I can add on pullbacks. 

Chris
2 Likes

Hi Anirban,

Yes, I am still in INBK and am holding with an expectation that they begin to grow more materially from their nationwide platform, recently added personnel, and become increasingly more profitable. I have heard and appreciate the very thoughtful analysis (and to some extent caution) on this Board regarding INBK, especially vs. BOFI. I am willing to let this play out given I feel the downside is limited, and the upside is potentially enormous if they can evolve the way BOFI has. Banking is not rocket science, rather it takes discipline, relationships and strategic acumen to grow materially. We shall see as they say.

Regarding TSLA, I have been in since $30, and FWIW SCTY since $35. I am really not concerned about their respective ongoing price volatility, as I am invested significantly in both companies given their potential to disrupt auto, energy and to some extent tech all at once. I realize ‘potential’ can be a 2-edged sword when thinking about their respective company valuations, but Musk (especially), Rive brothers & co have the benefit of their PROVEN strategic intelligence and, might I suggest, the leverage of political and international green energy tailwinds to help propel their initiatives. In the end, this may be the most fascinating disruptive corporate story of my (middle-aged) generation. No guarantees, but I’ve put my money behind ideas I truly believe in.

What a great week for these Rule Breakers…!

–Vic

2 Likes