Likely. But if gas goes to $8+/gallon, things will change–fast.
Definitely. If something causes gasoline to rise to $8/gal, the transition to EVs will be much faster. In fact, the transition from private vehicle to no private vehicle will also be quite fast. 
When I was in California this fall gasoline was $6/gal, and there are still some 13 million ICE vehicles in the state (out of ~14 million). Not sure that $8 would cause a sudden rush.
DB2
California has the highest penetration of EVs in the USA. It’s a perfect example to show that higher gasoline prices correlate with quicker EV adoption.
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When the price of gas goes up, people vote for the pols that tell the Saudis to “pump more”, and promise to repeal the gas tax. because most USians think they are entitled to an infinite supply of cheap gas.
I remember helots on bubblevision speaking glowingly about the invasion of Iraq, words to the effect “American oil companies will go in, develop the Iraqi resources, flood the market with oil, and push the price down to $10 a barrel”.
Steve
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Why go to Saudi Arabia? The US has produced more petroleum than the Saudis for the last seven years – 33% more in 2022.
DB2
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If memory serves, we cannot refine the type of oil we produce.
The Saudis have been the “go to” to blame high prices on, and demand more oil from, for decades.
Steve
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I don’t think that’s right - we export a ton of petroleum products (we’ve been a net exporter of petroleum products for years now), and very little crude. We import a large amount of Canadian and Mexican crude for refining and either use or re-export.
We don’t really “need” to import anything much from Saudi any more. It’s a convenient place to source oil from, since it can be transported directly to refineries by ship rather than by pipeline. But we bring in less than 0.5 mbpd from them these days (compared to 5.0 mbpd from Canada and Mexico, 10 mbpd of crude imports from all nations, and 20 mpbd of domestic consumption). It’s a drop in the bucket these days, and if imports from Saudi ceased entirely it would have little macro effect on our oil usage (though it might be painful for specific refineries/refiners that source from there).
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OPEC’s stated goal is to get a fair price for the oil. When prices go up OPEC can reduce output and still meet its budget. It’s not what happens in reality but that was the original vision. OPEC spends like drunken sailors, just like Americans do.
The Captain 
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We have mostly always imported much more from Canada and Mexico, and very little from Saudi Arabia. That hasn’t really changed. But, oil is priced on world markets. This is why when the Saudi’s pump more, prices go down for everyone.
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Yeah, but things have changed that make haranguing the Saudis less important, even if we’re trying to affect world prices.
The first is that we’re just less important to them. We used to import about 1.5 mbpd from them - 15-20% or higher of their export production, and their largest customer. Now we’re down to less than 0.5 mbpd, and one of their smaller export markets. They’re far less likely to care about our economic needs than before.
The second, though, is that the U.S. is now a far larger player on the global markets than even the Saudis, and so the Saudis (and OPEC) don’t have a lock on “swing” production any more. Sure, the cartel countries are the ones who are intentionally underproducing - none more than Saudi - so they’re the ones that have the best ability to turn on a million bpd or so in the very short term. But now, the U.S. has the ability to increase production over the slightly longer term. Which means that OPEC (and the Saudis) really only have a monopoly on swing production over a time frame of a few months - which is way shorter than the time frames that meaningfully affect EV adoption.
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Exactly.
And (flyerboys flying back 5 decades in time to when he crewed on a fast schooner in a race from Los Angeles around Santa Barbara Island and back), it can be perilously hard to make drunken sailors pay attention to exigent realities. I was sober, and watching a line of huge freighters and tankers all coming down the slot into San Pedro harbor cutting across our route. The captain and sailors, celebrating our probable victory, were close to insensible and hard to arouse to reflectiion, decision and action. Pizzing on the skipper’s shoes finally did the trick. I had to run and hide, but he (snotty rich brat, actually, and I am sure of no resemblance to our Captain) was roused to sufficient sensiblity by his rage to regain connection to reality.
The world is currently mostly under the control of drunken sailors…maybe time to unleash on some shoes.
david fb
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What the Saudi’s might want to care about is how willing the US will be to defend Saudi oil production and shipping routes. There was a time when sending the troops to Kuwait and selling the Saudi’s our best weaponry were no-brainers. That time has likely passed. Chips and rare earths are now a higher priority for our military.
Nope. We’ll be in bed with Saudis for a long, long time to come. They need us and we need them. If there is a disruption in the global oil supply anywhere, the price will spike everywhere, including domestically. An oil shock will cripple our economy, so we will continue to spend trillions in the Middle East fighting for freedom…freedom of flowing oil.
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We just had an oil shock. It didn’t cripple our economy. Global crude prices jumped from $80 per barrel to $130 per barrel in the space of a few months with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We managed.
The U.S. economy is far more insulated against oil shocks these days, not least because we’re now a net exporter of oil. The economy still can get hurt by price dislocations, but unlike when we were importing 13 mbpd a higher oil price comes with a short-term increase in our income, not a decrease. But also because the oil intensity of our economy has fallen. Our oil consumption is roughly about where it was in 2000, even though our population is 20% higher and our economy has more than doubled.
We want to avoid a global recession, so we have an interest in keeping the Middle East from exploding (metaphorically). And politically, our voters hate high oil prices, even if the economy can power through it more readily than a few decades ago. But with our actual oil consumption being met entirely from North America, maintaining an uninterrupted supply of oil from the Persian Gulf just doesn’t have the same strategic importance as it used to.
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A friend and I were asked to deliver a sailboat to Ft. Lauderdale for a refit. For some unknown reason there was/were one or two cases of rum on board and two very drunken sailors!
The owner and guests were on board during the first part of the trip to Puerto Rico. On arriving at Puerto Rico the owner’s friend, another sailor, decided to show off. The boat had hit a sand bank and this friend and sailor refused help from a local in quite a rude manner. He just made the mess bigger and finally accepted the help. Once things settled down the owner and passengers went ashore for good but the rigging was in a mess. My friend also went ashore to get provisions.
This was my first big sail after the angioplasty to clear a 90% obstruction in a coronary artery. There I was contemplating life and what to do next. The messed up rigging had to be cleared up. I don’t like height as I suffer from vertigo. I figured that if I climbed the mast and cleared up the mess I could declared myself healed from my coronary problems. I guess I was as 25 years later I’m still around to tell about it.
The Captain
has so many sea stories to tell…
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Capitan
I enjoy your sea stories and will occassionally attempt to provoke one. That was a good one!
Thanks
David fb
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There has been a major change in the US/Canada oil relationship. Historically, the oil from central Canada was “trapped” in the Midwest, so it was sold at a discount to Midwest refineries in north central US. The change was the oil pipeline from central Canada to their west coast. Now Canada can sell that oil on the open market–not at a discount. So expect prices for a wide range of foods grown in the central US to go up. This was known to TransCanada when they initially proposed the Keystone XL pipeline to the Gulf port refineries. It was part of their summary of the economic impacts based on using the new pipeline.
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It is important to point out here, that the Cybertruck was originally promoted as having an exoskeleton.