The narrative and jurisdictional risk

So over the last 45 years that I’ve owned Berk I - of course - did try long ago to persuade others to buy the stock. I felt like I had the Holy Grail and it needed to be shared!

That’s long gone. As far as Nestle, Berkshire, and other firms coming under some narrative or jurisdictional risk that blows up the stock price (most common) or the business (far less common) over some short or even medium term period (meaning years)? Oh yes-yes-yes…it can happen! And double-yes it can happen to Berkshire.

I have friends my age and 10-20 years younger that have 33% or more of their net worth in Berkshire. I don’t like them having it that way, I don’t think it is rational.

There’s one Warren Buffett and there’s one Charlie Munger. Markel, a stock I’ve owned since the late 1980’s when it came public? Not even the slightest bit close!

Just my 2 cents. A lot of sure things that people assume today, Alphabet for instance, are things I’m not as sure about. I’ve been reading Richard Bernstein’s views on inflation and energy for years now and I did put all my cash in those areas in the last 1 to 20 months. But it ain’t much there, I’m as exposed as anyone to downturns.

But the downturn we are seeing and forecast now so strongly? Well it was coming and I already processed it coming 2,3,4,5,6,7 years ago. These periods are always coming people, no matter how euphoric you get. The Saul’s board? History began for them in 2014 through 2017…they know nothing else because their cult leader won’t let them speak a word of it.

Life is great…if you can stand it. But Berkshire, the stock…not the business, could decline 50% from here on some jurisdictional scare. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit.


So you have limit orders in for $145? :grimacing:

I’m one of those people “overexposed” to Berkshire, and while I understand almost anything can happen in a panic as far as stock prices, I don’t plan for trying to time the bottom anymore. I do a little Berkshire trading in my IRA account, but I leave the bulk of my Berkshire holdings alone.

For me, if we find ourselves in another panic I’m much more comfortable having Berkshire making the decisions for me than trying to navigate a panic scenario myself. I might try to buy some in an absolute panic, or I might lock up and be too scared to do anything. I never know.

So a stock price panic doesn’t really bother me, as long as the underlying business of Berkshire holds up. I’m trying to gauge how well each of Berkshire’s businesses will do under a period of long term high inflation , but I’m not really smart enough (or too lazy) to do a good analysis. Has anyone here done a high inflation “stress test” for Berkshire’s businesses?

What happens to the insurance business under LT high inflation? Can they raise prices to keep up?

How does the rail business hold up under high inflation? Can they pass on rate increases? What’s the history of capital intensive rail business under high inflation?

How about Berkshire energy? Will the Federal government limit rate increases for utilities to try to help consumers? (I don’t know how any of that process works)

Manufacturing, service and retailing? How do they hold up?

I realize I’m not doing any deep thinking here and mostly asking possibly stupid questions, but the scenario of a prolonged high inflation environment is new to me.