Note One: I am an amateur investor whose research, development and creation of comprehensive and accurate stock ranking and analysis systems is unmatched by anyone else residing in my home and perhaps within a couple of miles or so.
Since I have pretty much selected roster Wings I wanted to take a really, really brief moment to begin analysis of Point Guards. Follows the list:
ENVX
GLBE
IOT
PLTR
CFLT
NU
HIMS
TMDX
Thats it: The current list with NU the favorite for Starting Point with a back-up battle between TMDX, PLTR and HIMS - all of which are subject to change depending on head-to-head competition. Here is a small bit of assessment going into tryouts in an effort to see if my off-the-cuff, arbitrary biased, initial sentiment and know nothing perception of the leading candidates measures up to reality.
Here is a ranking based on my proprietary Fundamentals Formula for Intensive Investment Criteria - commonly referred to as FFIIC for no particular reason.
Note Two: The FFIIC is not necessarily fool proof by any means; however, in some cases it might be/could be foolproof while in others probably not foolproof so much. So…as anyone might plainly see - it all depends. This is true largely in that the formula is based on a grading hierarchy that tends to whimsically shift based on accurate recall of highly definitive data points within predetermined/ established percentage allocations on a sliding scale as determined by assessment of performance of things and input of other stuff. Having said that, it is amazingly accurate within a 50/50 chance of certainty.
A) FFIIC Grades
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TMDX…349
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NU…348
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PLTR…338
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IOT…322.5
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HIMS…287
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ENVX…274
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CFLT…246.5
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GLBE…217.5
Now…as you can see the initial instincts were largely correct with one exception:
IOT. More on that later - or not. In the meanwhile here is a brief summary of the overall FFIIC ratings:
Pontiferous Commentary:
- TMDX is a lot stronger than simply a Bench/Back-up level player with some obvious caveats. Here is some data for TMDX:
Current Price: $149.53
52 Wk Range: 36.42 - 154.14
30 Day Momentum: +12.4%
Market Cap: 4.9B Give or Take
Latest ER:
Highlights and Interesting Tidbits:
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Net revenue of $96.9 million in the first quarter of 2024, a 133% increase compared to the first quarter of 2023. This is a win; although, lower growth than the previous 3 QTRs.
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Gross margin for the first quarter of 2024 was 62%, compared to 69% in the first quarter of 2023, and compared to 59% in the fourth quarter of 2023. The change from prior year is a result of a higher proportion of service revenue. This is perhaps an Uh-Oh moment.
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Operating expenses for the first quarter of 2024 were $47.5 million, compared to $30.9 million in the first quarter of 2023. The increase in operating expense was driven primarily by increased research and development investment as well as investment throughout the organization to support the growth of the company. First quarter operating expenses in 2024 included $6.5 million of stock compensation expense compared to $3.9 million of stock compensation expense in the first quarter of 2023. Something to watch?
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Net income for the first quarter of 2024 was $12.2 million, 12.6% of revenue, compared to a net loss of $2.6 million in the first quarter of 2023.
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TransMedics is raising its full year 2024 revenue guidance to be in the range of $390 million to $400 million, which represents 61% to 66% growth compared to the company’s prior year revenue. TransMedics’ prior 2024 revenue guidance was $360 million to $370 million.
A Couple of Scouting Reports:
- NU… Despite TMDX edging out NU on fundamentals NU is still considered the front runner for Starting Point Guard. Meanwhile - NU’s latests ER performance was a Grand Slam with accelerating growth.
Some DATA points:
Current Price: $12.43
52 Wk Range: 6.61 - 13.01
30 Day Momentum: 5.35%
Market Cap: 59.45B Give or Take
Latest ER:
Highlights and Tidbits:
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Customer growth: Nu added 5.5 million customers in Q1’24, reaching a total of 99.3 million customers globally by March 31, 2024, compared to 59.6 million only two years ago. Nubank is now the fourth-largest financial institution in Latin America by number of customers, and one of the fastest-growing digital financial services platforms worldwide. After the closing of Q1’24, Nubank announced it had surpassed the mark of 100 million customers in Latin America with over 92 million in Brazil, 7 million in Mexico, and around 1 million in Colombia.
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Engagement and activity rates: Monthly Average Revenue per Active Customer (ARPAC) grew to $11.4 in Q1’24, a 30% expansion YoY on FX neutral basis (FXN)1, with more mature cohorts already at $27. Nu continues to develop principality among its customer base and has an activity rate2 of 83.2%.
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Low-cost operating platform: Monthly Average Cost to Serve Per Active Customer remained virtually unchanged and below the dollar level at $0.9, demonstrating the strong operating leverage of the business model. The company’s efficiency ratio stood at 32.1% in Q1’24, which strengthens Nu’s position as one of the most efficient companies in Latin America.
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Revenue: Nu’s revenues in the quarter surged to $2.7 billion, another new record high, which represents a 64% FXN increase from Q1’23. This showcases the company’s unique ability to consistently expand its active customer base while accelerating revenue growth and profitability.
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Gross Profit: Nu’s gross profit reached another quarterly record high of $1.18 billion, a 76% increase YoY FXN. Gross profit margin stood at 43.2%, from 40.2% in Q1’23.
A Couple of Scouting Reports:
3). PLTR - Some DATA points:
Current Price: $25.85
52 Wk Range: 13.68 - 27.50
30 Day Momentum: 20.5%
Market Cap: 57.5B Give or Take
Latest ER:
Highlights and Tidbits:
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Revenue grew 21% year-over-year and 4% quarter-over-quarter to $634 million
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US commercial revenue grew 40% year-over-year and 14% quarter-over-quarter to $150 million
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US commercial customer count grew 69% year-over-year and 19% quarter-over-quarter to 262 customers
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US commercial remaining deal value (“RDV”) grew 74% year-over-year and 14% quarter-over-quarter
Note: I am going to stop right here. The issue with PLTR has always been whether they can grow their Commercial Base. Apparently the answer to that question is…Yes.
A Couple of Scouting Reports:
- IOT. Despite its investing fervor (And its Growth) slowly evaporating IOT scored well on the almost-never-inaccurate FFIIC system. Here are some DATA points:
Current Price: $35.67
52 Wk Range: 21.48 - 42.28
30 Day Momentum: 6.1%
Market Cap: 19.5B Give or Take
Latest ER:
Highlights and Tidbits:
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Q1 revenue of $280.7 million, representing 37% year-over-year growth
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Ending ARR of $1.176 billion, representing 37% year-over-year growth
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1,964 customers with ARR over $100,000, up 43% year-over-year
A couple of Scouting Reports:
I am stopping with the top 4 as rated by the FFIIC for an important reason: The BBQ is now available and one should never miss BBQ
under any circumstances.
Final Note: You can take this to the bank: Never trust a man who does not eat Cole Slaw with his BBQ - that is, as long as Cole Slaw is available. This is one of life’s principles which I hereby provide free of charge.
So how does all that buck out? Great question.
NU is my leader for Starting Point Guard largely due to deeper analysis
that shows that TMDX is more of a combo guard. If that plays out then PLTR has a small role on the Bench while HIMS may come into play.
Building a market competitive roster is very hard and obviously you should not try this at home.
All the Best and Happy 4th to All
BDH Investing
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