It appears like today might be a decent enough fishing day so I decided to add a couple of wings to the roster; but only with 1/2 positions. Will flesh things out when the market cooperates.
Wing One: SMCI
This morning I added SMCI back to the roster with a 1/2 position. intended to be a Starter at the Power Forward position. Sold it earlier at 872+ some change and bought it back at 825+ and some change.
Wing Two: AVGO
Added AVGO to the roster with 1/2 position at 161. Intended to be Small Forward Bench level back-up.
Added CRWD to the roster at $293 or so in the pre-market based upon its reported injury. CRWD will compete with ZS for Starting Small Forward. If CRWD recovers fully from its self inflicted injury as I fully expect it to - then this was a gift. I originally exited CRWD at $352 or so during a brief but refreshing moment of investing malaise and fatigue along with the concomitant idea that it had peaked for a bit. It hadnât - which pretty much sums up the stupidity of trying to time the market.
Lots of negative chatter on the colossal screw-up by CRWD that impacted/disrupted untold numbers of businesses around the world.
The good news - and perhaps why the damage so far has been limited to losing only 11% or so of its valuation - is simply that this was a software FUBAR event rather than a outright security hack. More to the point, CRWD is still the worldâs best pest control security service against bad folks.
Iâve seen a great many of the Chicken Little âThe Sky is Fallingâ type comments; which to be fair, have forced me to attempt to re-think my purchase this morning. The process went something like this:
Me: Wow. One of those rare events that allows for bargain entry points.
Chicken Littles: OMG - This is not just badâŚitâs mind boggling disaster territory. People are fleeing on any available lifeboat available. Come next week - EVERYONE on the entire planet is going to sell CRWD. FLEEâŚFLEEâŚFLEE!
Me: GeeâŚdoesnât sound very good to me. Perhaps I should re-evaluate as well and admit a knee jerk reaction purchase and flee as well. Could do it you know - could sell during After Hours and still book some profit in the process. ThinkingâŚThinkingâŚThinking. And more ThinkingâŚ
âŚNAH! Iâm burning the boats here.
I remember way back in the day when another gangbuster company was eating the Wide Wide World of food up. Growing likeâŚwell exponentially (which is a lot) and was a Must Have stock for your portfolio. And thenâŚand thenâŚalong came a nasty episode of semi widespread food poisoning. People fledâŚInvestors FledâŚstock plummeted. That company is obviously Chipotle. NowâŚit certainly took some time for CMG to recoverâŚbut itâs doing so well that it just had a 50-1 stock split so more folks could afford to buy more shares of CMG. Or something similar to that.
See what Iâm getting at here! See the PointâŚas well as the possibility?
Now maybe Chicken Little is absolutely correct here and no company now or in the future will ever do business with CRWD again. ButâŚask yourself - what are the odds? NoâŚnot the panic of the moment oddsâŚbut the real odds. Is there more pain ahead for CRWD short term. MaybeâŚwho knows and personally I am completely clueless. But if that is the case - then I suspect I will buy more. If I am wrong, well⌠it isnât going to bankrupt me nor even cause a bump in the road of our lifestyle.
Note: I am a complete fly-by-the-seat-of-my-pants amateur investor with the horror stories and scars to prove it. For goodness sakes do your own due diligence and never bite off more than you can chew. Or something like that.
Nice balanced post, Camp. I wish I couldâve had coffee with you this morning, as I tried to put in a pre-market order to sell, watched the price dance around my limit, high, low, but never closing, then cancelling that order and putting in a market order, watching the market open, not seeing that trade close, and finally cancelling that order, too. We wouldâve laughed a lot. The funny thing is, my trades mayâve not gone through because of the CRWD brouha. Ha, haâŚ
While I do not believe this event is as worrisome reputation wise as if it were a security hack, the unknown is the extent, if any, of the monetary damages that can be claimed by those who were impacted by the disruption. There were a lot of individuals who missed flights. In checking, it appears that the airlines are not paying hotel and assorted costs incurred as a result of this disruption. If these people can recover dollars to make them whole, than this is a material negativeâŚunless all monetary losses are covered by insurance.
I believe that Crwd in the long term will be fine, but in the short term I would want to make sure the knife, that is stuck in the ground, stops singing like a tuning fork.
All of you are potentially and essentially correct with the only variable being: How bad will it get short term. Weâll all find out soon enough.
Note: Would be great to have coffee in the morning with a like minded group. Lots of investing power in that concept. Would have to be members only in some form or fashion.
In an effort to chunk a little more fuel on the CRWD fire I wanted to provide competing reactions by two of the top subscription services I follow:
Service #1 appears - at least on the surface, to agree with my own viewpoint that the CRWD storm clouds will pass; however,
this service notes that with the 12% or so loss on Friday the company is fairly priced. No bargain. This service also believes that if CRWD drops more that the $250 price point would represent a great entry - or - point to add to an existing position.
The leader of this service does not have a concentrated portfolio and focuses on fundamentals. I have this service ranked number 3 and its results and analysis have been fine over an extended time period.
Service #2 is lead by an highly acclaimed leader whose tech knowledge is widely/frequently on display on various investing forums and networks. This service features a highly concentrated portfolio of growth companies with positions regulated/bought/sold and trimmed etc by a Trusty Sidekick whose entire investing vocabulary and world revolves around âCharting Wavesâ. Evidently there are 5 such waves to the investing process and this service is basically a guru leader identifying companies to invest in while the Trusty Sidekick uses these 5 waves to determine buys and sell. Itâs very complicated and sort of reminds me of the opening lyrics to this song:
Special Opportunity Note:
To simplify the investing in Charting Waves process I have broken these âwavesâ into easily understandable and actionable categories as follows: Low WavesâŚHigh WavesâŚRip Current WavesâŚRogue WavesâŚand Tsunami waves. I have a book coming out on it - more of a pamphlet actuallyâŚwell maybe a flyer really.
AnywayâŚthe point is, that as soon as the news came out the Trusty Sidekick sold out of CRWD as fast as his little fingers could hit the sell button. I rank this service #2 in performance over an extended time.
So there you have it. Two very good subscription services with vastly different reactions to the CRWD debacle. What to make of it? CRWD ainât dead but itâs gonna get dragged through the investing mud a little more before things ultimately shake out.
Final Note: This is an amateur investing interpretation - a summary of sorts - of how actual smart people reacted to the CRWD news.
Fleshed out the CRWD position today - but at a full position I am now entering the Hunker Down and just let the storm pass phase. Should there be a solid Dead CRWD Bounce (DCB) I may sell todayâs purchase to book some cash.
Note: if that were to occur within the next week or so I might just claim it was my deep and shrewdly detailed analysis, foresight, plan and general intention all along. If not - then I wonât.
Has the correction started? MaybeâŚmaybe not; but, it seems that way and if so itâs a durn good start. SoâŚjust in case, and in accordance with the semi-definitive rules of portfolio engagement in the event of declines of 3-4% or greater, I added to the following today:
NVDA
NU
SMCI
ZS
Somehow I missed adding to AVGO but I suspect I might have another shot at it tomorrow - or - at least before the end of the week. Weâll see.
My thinking lately has turned to what appears to be a vastly underrepresented, and in my humble opinion, a much needed, segment of the market. I mean, every where you turnâŚEVERYWHERE⌠there is some subscription service or advisor making a living on telling investors just what stocks you should buy. I subscribe to a number of them and use them to collate data and thinking on the top growth companies that are of general interest, it seems, to the entire growth investing world. HeckâŚthere appears to be a gazillion of them on Seeking Alpha alone. But who and/or what service takes the opposite task onâŚwho represents the voidâŚthe glaring holeâŚthe much needed Zag side to the Buy side Zig advisors and services? No-one - thats who. SoâŚwhat I am thinking of doing is establishing a service that tells you what not to buy and; just as importantly, when not to buy it.
NowâŚbefore you cast aspersions, of a negative sort on this genius concept just stop and think for a moment. There is a lot of money to be made/saved in not buying some stocks. What proof? How about this:
Back in the day I had a position in Luckin Coffee. In fact, lost a lot of capital therein. Now what if there had been an ace boon Donât Buy This Stock service I had subscribed to? Why they woulda told me not to buy Luckin Coffee thereby saving me lots and lots of good green capital so I could focus on and buy better companies, Thats what they woulda done for me. ANDâŚas we all knowâŚa penny saved is a penny earned. And Donât Buy This Stock could do the same for you or anyone else for that matter. My goodness think of the potential here.
I am thinking of two levels of subscription here: The first level would be Basic Donât Buy This Stock: simple and to the point. The Advanced Level Donât Buy This Stock might cost a couple of bucks more a month but would tell higher level investors exactly whenâŚWHENâŚnot to buy this stock. See how this works and would fit immediately into any investors tool bag. Letâs go over that Luckin Coffee example again.
Letâs say you read the Fool and decided you wanted to purchase shares of Luckin Coffee - intended to be the Starbucks of China. (China is a big country and Luckin Coffee - to be the Starbucks of China - would necessarily have a huge runway to growth producing mountains of capital and growth for investors. And letâs say you wanted to start with the typical Fool 1/3 entry position. So you plunked down $20K or so and there you wereâŚuntil you then discovered that LC was a total fraudâŚthat you were a gullible moron and just like that your 1/3 position was extinct. But wait!
Had you subscribed to just the Basic Level of Donât By This Stock you woulda known better and therefore saved your $20K. Now ask yourselfâŚIf someone asked you for just $9.95 a month for Basic Level Donât Buy This Stock and then saved your $20K - which is something similar to making you $20K - on JUST a single stock transaction - wouldnât you agree that such a valuable and timely service was extremely essential and undeniably valuable to any sincere investor? Why of course you would.
Iâll probably open the service up to subscribers in the near future but perhaps with a new name: Fugget About It. Dunno - have to flesh it all out.
I gave this concept a lot of thought overnightâŚwell mostly this morning⌠ok a few minutes ago; and I believe that such a subscription service as Donât Buy This Stock would dovetail nicely within the Fool empire. It could be seen, if not as a sort of insurance policy, then most certainly as a logical and necessary system of genuine checks and balances as determined and represented by the Independent Fool Service for Recommendation Confirmation operating independently amid the myriad other Fool subscription services. A kind of a Hedge service against the most fundamental, commonly recurring and most relevant human investing failures - if you will. It would be set up and comprised of members of the Fool team and would operate sort of like this:
Letâs sayâŚone of the popular Fool services comes out on a regular schedule with recommendations. Since you are a dedicated Fool subscriber to that particular service - you receive the recommendations on a timely basis. So far so good and just the normal way the Fool currently operates.
You then are entirely on your own to evaluate the Foolâs recommendation and to decide whether to invest in it or not. The clock is ticking. Perhaps you are one of those investors who does not do a lot of your own due diligence - or - perhaps you do; but, if youâre being honest with your talents and capabilities, stock research may not be within your investing forte - and besides, thats what you pay the Fool forâŚright? Alternatively, you may actually work for a living and simply donât have an abundance of time to launch into a full court, genuine research and analysis expedition into the Foolâs freshly prepared stock. Or maybe you just are too busy dropping the kids off at school, picking up the dry cleaning and figuring out whatâs for dinner. See what Iâm getting at here? BUTâŚ
Letâs say that you, being a very, very wise and shrewd Fool, opted to subscribe to the Fools Independent Fool Service for Recommendation Confirmation. NowâŚthere is an actual professional service between you, your ultimate decision to buy or not to buy and in very real terms - your economic and financial well being.
So - you shoot an email - or - better yet; put in a quick direct call into the Foolâs Independent Fool Service for Recommendation Confirmation. The conversation might go like this:
You: Hi - is this the Fools Independent Fool Service for Recommendation Confirmation?
Them: Good Afternoon. Yes it is. How can we help you?
You: Well I am a member of the XYZ Subscription service and they just recommended Enron. Can you give me your evaluation please.
Them: Certainly - and thank you for being a loyal Fool and subscriber to the XYZ subscription service.
You: Thank you. What do you think of the Enron recommendation - should I start a position.
Note: there are two alternative conversation possibilities here.
Alternative Response One:
Them: Yes - we feel that the XYZ team really pulled a rabbit out of the hat with this Enron recommendation. It is rock solid and built for rapid gains and appreciation.
You: WowâŚgreat to hear - I am going to open a position right now. You guys are the best!
Them: Youâre very welcome and thank you for being a loyal Fool subscriber to Independent Fool Service for Recommendation Confirmation.
âŚ
Alternative Response #2
Them: (Laughing). Oh good grief. Those guys over at the XYZ service are complete idiots and couldnât find a really great stock if it snuck up on them and bit them in the ***. Look - They were probably out drinking last night and up against a hard deadline to provide a recommendation. Enron sucks and if you buy it you will lose all your money.
You: Wow - you just saved me a lot of money. I canât thank you enough.
Them: Thank you for being a loyal Fool and subscribing to the Fools Independent Fool Service for Recommendation Confirmation.
âŚ
The more I go over it the more I like it. I am going to call Tom and recommend that they add a Donât Buy This Stock subscription service as soon as possible - or - maybe they can provide it free to everyone who subscribes to multiple services. Or something like that.
Note: In the interest of safety I recommend that the Fools Independent Fool Service for Recommendation Confirmation be housed in a separate building from Fool HQ.
Wanted to work out several companies today that I am interested in as follows:
HIMS
MMYT
ENVX
AOSL
PLTR
The first step I always, mostly and sometimes do is run companies through the ranking system. So I did that and here is the initial outcome:
AOSLâŚ356.5
MMYTâŚ352.5
PLTRâŚ348.5
HIMSâŚ297.5
ENVXâŚ266.0
The first part is almost always easy and a great first step. Why is it a great first stepâŚwell⌠because thats why. You wouldnât want to put the cart in front of the horseâŚwould you. Of course not because you are an exceptionally savvy, entirely suave and dedicatedly logical person - right? So there you have it - now we can move on.
Note: I am a perpetually amateur investor - a mere novice with no financial certification letters behind my name nor papers of authentication to my credit - and probably very much deservingly so. Seems fair and all. However, over time I have worked very hard to develop my very own proprietary system ofâŚstuff. While it works for me it might not work for you.
Note 2) There is a very special place located in Hockley, Texas called Boys and Girls Country. Here is what they do:
A Home For Children:
Founded in 1971, Boys and Girls Country has been serving children for over 50 years! We are a licensed residential home that serves children 5-18 and young adults 18 and up.
Their Purpose:
Our mission is to change the lives of children from families in crisis by loving and nurturing them in a Christian home environment, raising them to become self-sustaining and contributing adults
If the good lord places it in your heart - here is their website:
They could put to good use a spare buck or two which you might have.
âŚ
Alpha and Omega Semiconductor
AOSL
What AOSL Says About AOSL:
Who We Are
Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited, or AOS, is a designer, developer and global supplier of a broad range of power semiconductors, including a wide portfolio of Power MOSFET, IGBT, IPM and Power IC products. AOS differentiates itself by integrating its Discrete and IC semiconductor process technology, product design, and advanced packaging know-how to develop high performance power management solutions.
Current Data Points:
Price: $43.53
52 Wk Range: 19.38 - 47.45
8.2% Below its High
30 Day Momentum: 17.54%
YTD Momentum: 57.7%
Market Cap: $1.2B Give or Take
EV/Sales FWD: 1.64
Why AOSL Now?
Not all that sure - however, a lot of professionals, including one of my top respected and rated subscription services entered the name and thinks the jackpot comes - if it comes - in the 2025-2026 time frame.
Revenue was $150.1 million, a decrease of 9.2% from the prior quarter and an increase of 13.2% from the same quarter last year.
Non-GAAP gross margin was 25.2%, down from 28.0% in the prior quarter and up from 25.1% in the same quarter last year.
Non-GAAP operating expenses were $38.9 million, up from $37.9 million from last quarter and up from $36.2 million in the same quarter last year.
Non-GAAP operating loss was $1.1 million as compared to $8.4 million of operating income for the prior quarter and $2.9 million of operating loss for the same quarter last year.
Non-GAAP net loss per share was $0.04 compared to $0.24 net income per share for the prior quarter and 0.21 net loss per share for the same quarter a year ago.
Consolidated cash flow provided by operating activities was $28.2 million, as compared to $23.5 million of cash flow used in operating activities in the prior quarter.
Ok sort of mediocre of a sort which kept me wondering what in the world the high tech folks see in this company. In fact, I did another write-up of it just a few days ago and passed on what I thought I knew; however, perhaps what I thought I knew was not there was to actually know. So I went back and re-read the transcript - and the second time round this statement by the CEO
made a much bigger impact than it had the first time:
âLooking beyond calendar 2024, AOS is transitioning from a component supplier to become a comprehensive solution provider, enabling us to âgo deeperâ with increasing BOM content while penetrating new products and verticals. We are confident that our leading technology, extensive product portfolio, and Tier 1 customer base strategically position us well to outperform the broader markets we serve. We are optimistic about the future and look forward to executing on the opportunities ahead of us.â
This seems to be what the Pros are focusing on as it relates to AI - perhaps and maybe? StillâŚthe company, like all AI related companies has run strong this year.
The stock is in the midst of a massive turnaround after a long decline, and there are a couple of catalysts that made it possible.
The rally shifted into higher gear on reports that suggest the Company deserves to be labeled an AI play as a supplier to the leading AI stock.
Why AOSL may have turned into an AI play
The previous chart shows how the rally shifted into higher gear on June 20. This was also no coincidence because that was when reports emerged that AOSL stood to benefit from changes in Nvidiaâs certification process. Ming Chi Kuo, for example, tweeted that AOSL is poised to become a new supplier for Nvidiaâs GB200
The reports seem to confirm what AOSL itself had previously suggested, which is that AOSL is tapping into the market for artificial intelligence or AI for a more favorable bill of materials in order to grow earnings.
So - while this may - or may not, turn into the full blown AI stampede alluded to in the articles above - to some degree it has already booked a great deal of gains in a very short time frame. The company next reports on 8/7 and might be worth a Development Squad roster position.
âŚ
Make My Trip
MMYT
What Exactly is a MMYT:
MakeMyTrip Limited, an online travel company, sells travel products and services in India, the United States, Southeast Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Air Ticketing, Hotels and Packages, and Bus Ticketing. It offers various services and products, including booking of air and bus tickets; hotels and packages; rail tickets; car hire; and ancillary travel requirements, such as facilitating access to third-party travel, other insurance products, foreign currency exchange services, and visa processing under the MakeMyTrip, Goibibo, and redBus brand names.
Current Data Points:
Price: $92.24
52 Wk Range: 28.42 - 100.22
About 8% Below its High
30 Day Momentum: 11.28%
Momentum YTD: 90.6%
Market Cap: $9.85B Give or Take
EV/Sales FWD: 9.53
Why MMYT Now?
All I can say is that I wish I had bought Andy lunch a few months ago. But that was then and this is now - so the question seems to be: After a YTD run of 90% - whatâs left in the tank?
Gross Bookings(3) increased by 21.6% YoY in 1Q25 to $2,380.4 million.
Adjusted Margin(2) â Air Ticketing increased by 21.2% YoY in 1Q25 to $89.1 million.
Adjusted Margin(2) â Hotels and Packages increased by 27.3% YoY in 1Q25 to $107.3 million.
Adjusted Margin(2) â Bus Ticketing increased by 20.7% YoY in 1Q25 to $32.4 million.
Adjusted Margin(2) â Others increased by 38.6% YoY in 1Q25 to $14.9 million.
Adjusted Operating Profit(2) improved to $39.1 million in 1Q25 versus $30.1 million in 1Q24, reflecting an improvement of $9.0 million YoY.
Adjusted Net Profit(2) improved to $44.5 million in 1Q25 versus $33.6 million in 1Q24, reflecting an improvement of $10.9 million YoY.
What Rajesh Said About the Results:
âWe are pleased to see a robust start to this fiscal year. We believe that the long-term growth story of Indiaâs travel and tourism sector is fuelled by multiple macroeconomic drivers like increasing government investments in travel infrastructure, rising disposable incomes of the middle class, and increasing propensity to travel. These drivers indicate that Indiaâs travel and tourism industry growth is expected to be higher than the countryâs GDP growth rate. We aim to continue to drive our growth by capitalising on the shift from offline to online buying and expanding our customer base and wallet share.â
A Couple of Scouting Reports:
OKâŚok. So - it seems a lot of folks think that MMYT has its future all ahead of it. Maybe it deserves a roster spot but I would love to get it slightly below $90. Could happen - itâs not like Iâm asking for a gold Panda coin tree or a spot in the Philharmonic. Weâll see. In the meanwhile kudos to Andy.
I get really really lucky sometimes, I mean like 1 out of 100 times. I mean my luck is so good I wear my older brothers hand me downs still. I still have boots from back in the 1800âs that my great great grandfather gave me on his death bed because he could tell that I would need some boots. Now if you want to follow some great investors, watch what Champ, Rob, Saul, and Pete are doing. Donât mind us guys just puttering around on the edges.
You know Andy, Just as The Fool has over time morphed into something of a Shylock lending stock tips for a hefty price, The Fool canât possibly compare to the steep asking prices of the irresistible and enchanting siren songs of the blond haired, green eyed Mermaids found exclusively in deeper Norse waters. ( Of course there are different types - of both Shylocks and Mermaids).
And I donât doubt you for one single solitary moment - wellâŚexcept maybe the Luck thing. The boots? Absolutely credible. Assuredly so.
Added ENVX with an entry level Development Squad position. Why? Itâs way, way overvalued - unless it turns out they really, really are on the cusp of a roll-out of the new battery (The U.S. Army contract should provide some new data soon) ; and, it reminded me of a David type stock with potentially high octane potential while being completely over valued. Whatâs not to like? Did I mention its Sky High $2.something or other Billion Valuation on less income than Los Tacos off of Times Square. Weâll see I suppose. Could be a game changer with AI potential as well - or, I suppose it could turn out to be just a monkey flinging poo.
I am not sure if we will see anything from the Army anytime soon as I believe they had done a few pilots with different vendors. What ever was delivered in the Q3/Q4 2023 time is likely going to be tested a while before vendor selections are done.
I tried to search for from the military side if they issued any statements and found this. But no mentioned of Enovix or Invetus Power which would be the actual vendor. Inventus Power does seem to have a 20 year history of supply batteries to the military which is a good sign. But I donât think there was any mentioned of the DoD contract in last earnings call. so not sure it has gone cold or just have to wait. Next earnings call is this week I believe
