Shift in Russian strategy?
Russia has spent the past five months swallowing up ever bigger tracts of Ukrainian coal, lithium, and uranium in the Donbass.
But from August, Russian tactics shifted. First from the south of Donetsk they stormed Vuhledar, literally translated as “Gift of Coal,” a site of significant reserves, capturing it on October 1. That opened the way to swallow up large swaths of land in the south. Following the apparent encirclement of Velyka Novosilka in the past two days, one of Ukraine’s three licensed blocks of extractable lithium is now within short reach in Shevchenko.
Russian armed forces skirted Pokrovsk, instead battling through Selydove and in a straight line for about 20 miles, capturing a Uranium mine in a village called Shevchenko (not the same Shevchenko where the lithium is located). In recent weeks, Russian forces have taken Ukraine’s most important mine for coking coal in Pishchane and two related coking coal shafts in Udachne and Kotlyne. Together, these mines alone had produced the coking coal for 65% of Ukraine’s steel production. There are now fears that Ukrainian steel production could plummet to 10% of its prewar level in 2025.
The above suggest Russia would be satisfied with a status quo situation where they can utilize Ukraine raw material to reimburse their war against Ukraine. Ukraine remains a weaken state without the where withal to rebuild. And perhaps not even a viable NATO candidate for admission.
The above will be unacceptable to Zelensky so an armistice will not occur. the Ukraine-Russian war will remain an open sore in world peace.
Methinks even with NATO continued assistance Ukraine can’t recover Eastern Ukraine. But NATO members seem determined to continue to drain their defense stock of weaponry to Ukraine. I doubt NATO would want to become actively involved in the Ukraine War.
So the status quo will continue for years.
I can see a pyrrhic victory for Ukraine eventually due to the economic strength of NATO members. But the economic cost of this war will cost NATO members a trillion dollars at least. And then there is the cost to rebuild Ukraine. And these could come at a worst time as the EU is going through an economic malaise plus disgruntled populace & political upheaval.
The cost may be worth if Russia is broken economically. But does that economic situation cause a political upheaval within Russia? And then who controls the Russian nukes?