I have been going to the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network website to track Heart, Lung and Liver transplants to see if volumes are increasing given the impact on TMDX’s revenue from volumes being down in the third quarter. Here is a link to the website:https://insights.unos.org/OPTN-metrics/.
Here is a screenshot of the data I have captured from the website:
As you can see from the spreadsheet, Oct 2024 is slightly ahead of Sept 2024 but overall it seems like Q4 so far (I start Q4 in week 40) is averaging 365 transplants per week across liver, lung and heart and the average for all of Q3 was 371 per week. This is obviously concerning.
However, I’ve seen various research reports that says Q4 volumes are rebounding and are ahead of Q3. Here is an example from Piper Sandler:
The Piper Sandler report is painting a much different picture from the data that I’m seeing. I’m not sure how to reconcile this. I’ve doubled and triple checked that I didn’t make any copy / paste errors from the OPTN data. Has anyone else been tracking this information. I am trying to see if this community is seeing what I’m seeing.
I think it’s hard to get exact numbers for calendar months from the OPTN website because they report by the week number - and some of the weeks span over the end of one month and the beginning of the next month. In the image below, week 40 is partly in September and partly in October. Maybe Piper Sandler has access to more granular data that is tracked by day.
Thanks AnalogKid70! You are right that it is hard to translate the OPTN data into calendar months. You can see in the data that no matter how you slice it, the average number of transplants per week from week 40 on is less than the average per week from week 27 through week 39 (what I’m assuming is 3Q). The average from week 27 - 39 across heart, lung, and liver is 370.9, and the average from week 40 - 45 is 364.8.
I might be off slightly in comparing quarters or months as some weeks (like week 40) span over one month and the beginning of another, but the overall trend for transplants seems down. The average per week across heart, lung, and liver from week 1 through week 45 is 372.15. The average from week 40 - 45 is 364.8.
Assuming I didn’t screw up my numbers someplace (I’ve triple-checked, though), it seems hard to see where transplant volume in 4Q is looking optimistic for TMDX. They would need to increase their market share of the transplant volume to increase revenue. I suspect they will increase their market share, but will it offset the overall slowdown in transplant volumes that the OPTN data shows?
I’m sure we’ll get some commentary on transplant volume, market share, and (sic) aircraft maintenance. Fireside chat the week after next.
Event: Piper Sandler 36(th) Annual Healthcare Conference
Date: Tuesday, December 3, 2024
Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
