TMDX: Strong Flight Data Prompts Fresh Look Ahead of Earnings

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
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Part I: Why the Optimism Was Justified—At First

Following several conversations with family and friends, I decided to take a closer look at TMDX again. The common refrain was simple: “Flight numbers look great.” That momentum caught my attention.

So, I started this new dive with that in mind.

:chart_increasing: Flights Have Climbed Sharply Through Q2 2025

Let’s start with what we can measure. Looking at TMDX’s Quarterly Flight Trends, the trend is unmistakable:

  • Q1 2025 flights: ~2,133
  • Q2 2025 flights: ~2,408 (a new all-time high)

It’s clear that Q2 2025 represented a continued operational scale-up.

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:bar_chart: Projecting Revenue: What Do These Flights Mean Financially?

Using past actuals (from Q2 2024 to Q1 2025), I calculated revenue per flight for each quarter and used that to build a simple linear model.

This regression reveals two things:

  1. There’s a reliable historical relationship between flight volume and revenue per flight (with some decline as flights increase).
  2. We can use this to predict Q2 2025 revenue with reasonable accuracy.

Using this model:

  • Predicted revenue per flight for Q2 2025: ~$65,157
  • Total flights : 2,408
  • Projected revenue : ~$156,898,000
  • Standard deviation of past revenue per flight : ~$1,660

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This estimate lands significantly above TMDX’s guided range of $146M—suggesting a likely beat, assuming consistent pricing dynamics and case mix.

:chart_decreasing: Part II: How My Forecast Compares to Guidance and Wall Street Expectations

With a model projecting $156.9M in revenue for Q2 2025—based solely on historical revenue-per-flight trends and current flight data—it’s important to step back and compare that estimate with what TMDX has officially guided and what the market currently expects.

:compass: Company Guidance: Still Conservative

While TMDX does not issue formal quarterly guidance, analysts have extrapolated an implied Q2 2025 revenue range of approximately $144M–$148M based on the company’s full-year outlook and historical seasonality—placing the midpoint around $146M. If this model is correct, actual results would exceed:

  • High end of guidance by ~$9M
  • Midpoint by nearly $11M , or a ~7.5% beat

This is the gap that bullish investors are focused on—and it helps explain the strong sentiment among retail and institutional holders tracking the flight data.

:bar_chart: Consensus Estimates: Still Anchored Near Guidance

Most analyst platforms report a consensus estimate of $147.8M, essentially flat with guidance. In other words, the majority of published Anaylsts is close to guidance.

That said, this may be starting to shift.

:upwards_button: Canaccord Genuity: A Leading Signal of Upward Revisions

On July 18, 2025, Canaccord Genuity raised its Q2 2025 revenue forecast to:

  • $158.2M total revenue
  • Including $153.7M in U.S. OCS revenue (the core transplant flight business)

This is the most recent and most bullish published estimate—and it’s the first major revision meaningfully above $150M. While still an outlier, Canaccord’s upward adjustment signals that at least some analysts are starting to adjust their models to reflect strong logistics data.

:triangular_ruler: Conclusion: Forecast vs. Guidance

My model places Q2 revenue at $156.9M, well ahead of both the implied guidance range and the current consensus estimate of $147.8M. While most analysts have yet to fully adjust their models, that may be changing.

Canaccord Genuity’s recent upward revision to $158.2M is an early sign that some on Wall Street are beginning to incorporate what we’ve already modeled from flight data. That puts my projection no longer as a stretch target—but potentially the new benchmark.

If this trend continues, the model won’t be an outlier—it will be the curve.

:warning: Part III: Why Guidance Might Matter More Than the Beat

In high-growth companies like TMDX, it’s not always the actual earnings print that moves the stock—it’s what management says about the future. That’s why I believe guidance, not results, will dominate the reaction this quarter.

And here’s the problem: I think they may guide down for the summer. From last year the worst 3 months were August, September, and October with July just above them.

:three_o_clock: 1. Historical Seasonality: Last Summer Had a Clear Dip

Looking at last year’s data (see Monthly Flights chart), flights declined significantly between July and September 2024.

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:chart_decreasing: 2. The 2025 Trend Is Already Rolling Over

Unlike 2024, this summer slowdown isn’t just expected—it’s already visible.

  • April 2025 marked a peak at 838 flights (27.93/day).
  • Since then, both monthly totals and flights per day have declined:
    • May: 797 flights (25.7/day)
    • June: 773 flights (25.77/day)
    • July (partial): 587 flights across 26 days (22.6/day)

This pattern is reinforced by weekly data, where flight volume is clearly trending down post-Q2. The summer lull has already started—and we’re still in July.

:chart_decreasing: 3. Guidance Risk: A Beat Followed by a Caution Flag?

If TMDX reports a beat in Q2—especially one close to my model ($156.9M)—but issues soft guidance for Q3 due to flight tapering, the market could see that as a transition point in growth, not a continuation. For a high-multiple logistics-growth story, that can quickly compress valuation.

Even if the slowdown is temporary or seasonal, TMDX’s high expectations and stock price momentum make it vulnerable to even short-term guidance deceleration.

:chart_decreasing: Part IV: Market Behavior Is Catching Up to the Data

This final chart ties the story together—weekly flight volume, closing stock price, and trendlines—and shows what may be the most important shift this year:

The market is starting to price TMDX based on its real-time operating metrics.

:green_square: The First Surprise: Q1’s Strength Wasn’t Priced In

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The green line marks March 31, 2025, the end of Q1. At that time, the stock had barely moved, despite strong weekly flight data throughout Q1. But when the company announced earnings on May 8 (blue line), the market reacted sharply upward, clearly surprised by how strong Q1 really was—even though the flight data was already visible for those watching.

That disconnect between reported results and prior price action suggests that investors weren’t closely tracking operational metrics at that point.

:chart_increasing: Post-Q1: The Market Started Watching the Data

After the Q1 earnings release, the price surged—but so did investor awareness. We can see this in two ways:

  1. Price tracked rising weekly flights very closely from April through June .
  2. The uptrend in stock price started to level off just as the flight data turned downward .

The orange dotted lines in the chart show this shift:

  • Jan–Mar: a slow climb in flights.
  • Apr–Jun: a reversal into a clear downward trend.

This time, investors didn’t wait for earnings. As soon as the market began noticing the softening volume—visible well before June 30 (purple line)—TMDX’s price started to fade.

:brain: Why This Is Happening

So why is the market suddenly reacting more quickly to weekly flight trends?

Because tracking TMDX’s flight data has become more accessible than ever.

Websites like Jina Capital’s TMDX Tracker, which launched publicly on June 28, now make it easy for any investor—not just those with Python scripts or database skills—to monitor real-time operational performance.

And while Jina’s tracker may be the most user-friendly, it wasn’t the first. Other investors and platforms had already begun sharing and circulating weekly flight estimates as early as late Q1. By the time June rolled around, awareness had reached a tipping point.

That means:

The surprise effect we saw after Q1 is unlikely to repeat—flight trends are already widely watched.

Any meaningful drop in flights, even before earnings are announced, is likely to be priced in quickly.

Valuation multiples may become more volatile, as traders react in near real-time to fluctuations in weekly data.

In short, TMDX’s operating data is now in the open—and the market has started to price it accordingly.

:receipt: Final Thoughts: My Prediction for the Stock

After analyzing the full set of flight data, historical trends, market behavior, and analyst revisions, here’s where I stand:

  • TMDX will likely report a strong Q2 — my model projects ~$156.9M in revenue, well above the implied guidance range and current consensus.
  • However, I expect soft guidance for Q3, due to a visible summer slowdown already unfolding in the data. July flights per day have clearly dropped from the April peak, and the pattern echoes last year’s seasonal dip.
  • That combination — strong performance, weak guidance — would normally create mixed market reactions.

But this time is different.

Thanks to real-time trackers like Jina Capital and growing investor awareness of weekly OCS flight volume, I believe:

Much of the Q2 beat and Q3 softness is already priced in.

The market is no longer flying blind. It’s reacting to operations as they happen — and the recent price action reflects that. The Q1 surprise created a surge because few were watching the data. But in Q2, many are. The room is no longer dark.

So while I remain fundamentally bullish on TMDX’s long-term model, I’m cautious about upside volatility in the near term. Any meaningful move post-earnings may require either:

  • A surprise on margins or operating leverage (not just volume),
  • Or a guidance tone that reassures investors this summer softness is temporary.

Until then, I see limited edge in trading this stock—because this time, everyone has the data.

Drew

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Hey drew, very nicely done. Your analysis on the Q3 guidance and situation I feel is spot-on and it is what is holding back the stock. The market knows Q3 is a seasonally weak quarter and they expect that it will be a sell-off type situation. if that sell-off doesn’t happen, TMDX could start to run. Of course, nobody can predict short-term price movement, and I certainly can’t.

I own the shares in a meaningful way but I am not adding despite the beat that I think we are almost certainly headed toward.

I think everything hinges on the full-year guidance. if they raise full-year (and they should if their guidance didn’t take into account the strong, ahem, tailwinds), then thats the market tie-break (strong beat Q2, soft guide Q3, full-year guide??). Thats the number I am watching.

Can you shed any light on Q3 quarter to date numbers compared to the year-ago quarter at this time in the quarter? That might also be a meaningful number.

Lastly, I disagree with your assertion that the market is pricing in the real-time data. As you have noted, analysts do not appear to have done that. Either they know something we don’t or they just aren’t tracking at a level you are. I have no idea which, but guessing, the average analyst doesn’t dig as deep as they should. Maybe we should watch the canacord analyst closely going forward if his estimate comes in. He seems to have figured it out.

Thanks again and very well done!

Rob

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Rob,

This Q3 is hard for me to estimate for several reasons. Q3 2024 had an abnormal amount of planes in maintenance. Flights are dropping faster this year than last year.

Looking at the numbers so far July is 22.6 flights a day which is more than 17.2 of July 2024 by 31.8%. But the decrease from June to July in 2024 was a 10.5% vs 12.3% in 2025. But looking at the weekly data I can see that July average can continue to fall. The drop from July to August last year was a 7.72% and I can see this year exceeding it.

So I can see an argument than they can expect aproximently 30% year-over-year growth in the summer because they have access to more planes. But I can also see the flights drop off faster than last year which would be lower. Either way that’s a big drop off from 48% from Q1.

I disagree with your ending that price is not affected by real time data because analysts have not updated their models to use it. Some analysts from those companies have to follow procedures that won’t allowed them to use the flight data. Or they are not allowed to use it to revise their predictions. They also don’t hold any positions in these companies.
Now following individual investors on X paints a different picture with them using the data to make decisions. Can you still make money following the flight data? Yes but in my opinion it will be lower than the ability to do so for the Q1 earnings.

Drew

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-TMDX doesn’t forecast quarterly, only yearly so there is no Q3 forecast.

-I believe TMDX will do around $166-167 million in Q2 so your number looks light to me. This also lines up with others who have a proven track record of forecasting TMDX revenue the past few quarters.

-Also, TMDX is sold 21% short so clearly a lot of people aren’t looking at the flight data.

-I think TMDX is on sale right now, it’s trading around 20x 2026 EV/EBITA and they will likely grow EBITA 30-50% next year (consensus 2 year forward EBITA CAGR is 37%.)

-Flight data for July is starting to pick up and TMDX could end up at 25+ flights per day for Q3 and 27+ flights per day for Q4

-Jonah Lupton estimates that TMDX does $631M+ revs for 2025 which is 43% YoY growth with guidance still at 30% and street estimates still at 31%. I think this is a reasonable estimate. Time will tell.

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Jeff,

I agree that TMDX doesn’t provide formal quarterly guidance, but the company often implies future expectations through qualitative commentary—even without issuing explicit forecasts.

That said, I’m struggling to see how they arrive at $166–167M for Q2 unless they’re assuming a revenue per flight of $69,000–69,500. For comparison, in Q1, they achieved approximately $67,300 per flight. Historically, revenue per flight scales inversely with flight volume, which makes this implied improvement in efficiency somewhat optimistic.

To me, it makes more sense that as TMDX’s technology becomes more deeply integrated into transplant logistics, their operational complexity increases. For example, instead of simply flying to pick up an organ and returning with it, they may now need to:

  • Fly to pick up the organ,
  • Deliver it to the transplant site,
  • And finally fly back to their base.

That’s 50% more flight activity—but still tied to one transplant.
More flights, same product billing.

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I kept this out of my original post for the sake of brevity. While both product and service revenue per flight decline as total flights increase, product revenue per flight drops more sharply. That’s because product revenue is billed once per transplant, regardless of how many flights are required to complete the organ delivery.

Service revenue per flight also declines, but more gradually. This is because service revenue has two components:

  1. Clinical support related to the transplant itself (billed once per transplant), and
  2. Flight logistics — the aviation and transport services (which are billed per flight).

As TransMedics scales its fleet and handles more complex or distributed organ retrievals, the number of flights per transplant increases. The clinical portion of service revenue remains fixed, but the flight portion adds incremental billable events, softening the decline in service revenue per flight compared to product revenue.

Based on my regression, I calculated a standard deviation of $1,660 per flight, which generates a forecast band from $153M to $161M, centered around $157M in total revenue for the quarter.

Unless there’s new information suggesting a material price hike, I believe this forecast range holds. I’m open to revising it if management commentary or filings indicate a structural shift in pricing—but until then, I stand by these numbers.

Drew

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Drew

I like the entire story and most numbers about TMDX, ignoring some of the irrational rhetoric like the planes in maintenance being the fundamental reason for an entire quarter’s performance debacle.

The number of flights is a great way to add insight into growth, but I believe increasing flight frequency will dramatically reduce all phases of corporate costs by delivering more effective use of management process, hardware and all levels of personnel.

Gray

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That was an amazing prediction purely on linear regression. You were within 0.3% of the actual revenue. Just wanted to give you a shout-out Drew.

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The Q3 flight tracker data for $TMDX is pointing to estimated revenue of $141.2M, representing +29.8% YoY growth.

In Q2, management guided FY’25 revenue of $585–605M (~35% YoY growth).

The last three quarters of revenue (including the Q3 estimate) are:
Q1: $143.5M → Q2: $157.4M → Q3 (est.): $141.2M
Total so far: $442.1M.

To hit FY’25 guidance:

  • High end ($605M): Q4 would need to reach $162.9M, implying +33% YoY.

  • Low end ($585M): Q4 would need $143M, implying +17.5% YoY.

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TMDX has stated they expect seasonality in Q3 but that it’s a transient impact. They expect a solid Q4.

I’d also be careful putting too much faith into the simple flight tracker.

TMDX CEO Waleed recently presented at the Morgan Stanley 23rd Annual Global Healthcare Conference and stated:

“We are moving as more and more people are getting comfortable with how long organs could stay in OCS. We shifted ground transportation from 20% or lower to now approaching 40% of the total National OCS Program mission. Yes, it’s a secondary measure, but it doesn’t tell the full story. We still have 20% of the aviation requirement done by third party.”
Additionally, they added another jet which last I saw was still in the process of being added to the tracker and had not yet.

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Per the CEO, flight tracking seems like a futile exercise:

  • September 8, 2025 (Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference): In a highly bullish presentation, Hassanein stated:

    “If you are focused on monthly volatility or tracking flights as a proxy, this stock is not for you. The core metric is transplants, not planes.”

17 Likes