Tom Gardiner Double Down Buy Alert

I recently received a promotional email from MF enticing me to join SA (which by the way, I am already a member of)… the email had an article about a company that Tom Gardiner had recently placed a double down buy alert… the email had the following message:

I’m staking $523,111 of The Motley Fool’s own money on this one stock…
I’m so confident in this company that I recently “doubled down” on my recommendation and issued a second “buy” alert

Anyone have any idea which Company this is referring to?


Anyone have any idea which Company this is referring to?

More than likely it’s just a teaser.

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i hope not… i have subscribed to a number of MF subscriptions… hope its not just a scam…

" hope not… I have subscribed to a number of MF subscriptions… hope its not just a scam."

Regrettably, yours is a vain hope, as a bit of due diligence will show.

On their banner page, the G BoyZ tout their hypothetical stock-picking performance, saying they have beat the SP500 index by 3x. Specifically, they claim that $10k invested in the picks from their Stock Adviser tip sheet (SA) would have yielded a 461% gain (since its Feb 'p02 inception) vs the gain of 133% for the SP500 index over that same time frame.

Now come the hard facts that prove that claim is a lie. The SP500 cannot be bought, only derivatives that track it, never mind that the index is made up of mostly large-cap stocks --i.e., the stocks of large, mature companies well past their early growth years-- whereas SA bets on small and mid cap growth companies. Hence, their choice of a benchmark --though a common one-- is a deliberate attempt to mislead. If they had wanted to benchmark their performance in a fair manner, they would have chosen indexes that track small or mid-cap stocks. Clearly, their intention is to mislead. However, there are ETFs that track those market sectors, namely, IJT and IWO.

Now, let’s do some simple, very basic math. The claimed inception date for SA is Feb, 2002. Today is April 17, 2022, or 20.21 years later. (Remember that number, because you’ll need it shortly.) Their claimed 461% gain is the same as saying a gain of 4.61. So enter that number into a calculator that will so compound roots. Then, select the key for compound roots and enter the number of years (20.21). Presto, Magico. The answer returned is 1.078549853.

Now, do three more things. Shift the decimal two places to the right, truncate the decimal to two significant places, and slap on a percentage sign, thusly, 7.85%. That number is the IRR for your initial $10k investment in SA. Pretty underwhelming, right? or about what an average junk bond pays.

When you run this same exercise for IJT and IWO over the exact same time frame, you’ll discover that their IRRs were 10.% and 8.71%, respectively. In short, the Motley Fool’s track record is a documentable one of under-performance that will prove to be even worse once the annual fee of $199 is subtracted from gains. (Heck, these days, even I-bonds are offering nearly 10%.)

Lastly, let’s return to the SP500. As said before, it can’t be bought, only derivatives that track it, the most commonly of which is SPY. Since Feb, 2002, what kind of return has it offered? Again, go to Yahoo Finance (or similar) and pull the historical data. From then until now, SPY’s IRR (with divs reinvested) was 9.08%. In other words, the G Boyz can’t even beat their strawman benchmark.

So, what does buying a subscription to Stock Adviser get you? Club membership and guaranteed underperformance compared to just indexing any of the common stock market indexes. so, to one and all, if you think my analysis is flawed, then provide your own, and let’s settle this matter once and for all.

(whose IRR on money put to work has averaged 13.1%/yr over the last 37.5 years and who has never bought anyone’s tip sheets, because all of them are scams that prey on them too lazy to do some basic math and/ or their own investing research.)

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re: the power of compounding, compounding and more compounding.…

Reviewed one of the Gboyz selections and it spiked after the announcement for a few months and started heading south. We call it Frontrunning and or PND. They will probably buy the stock and then sell it right away for a 5 to 10% profit and out. Then do the same thing 3 or 4 more times and retire the stock and move on to the next stock to claim as a hot steamin stock. while the HODLers (hang on for dear life) are not told to sell the stock and are left holding the bag. And the Gboyz made about a kewl $250,000.00 profit.

Guess the Gboyz played ANET October 2021. $ 85.00 to $134.00 and out for 57.6471 percent profit or about $291,390 profit on or about November 9,2021. And if the Gboyz are smart, they would compound the money 4 more times by sucking you into a hot steamin deal. The second ANET trade earned them another 24.3698 percent profit or about $ 700,000.00 + profit and still more to go via compounding. Review ANET’s chart on the dates in question.

That’s what I would do and do daily with just 2-3 percent theory from Day 1 to Day 365 starting with just $5,000.00.

Day 365 is over 1 mill.

Folks, you must have a Business plan. Investing is a Business must be treated as such.…

MUSA, NUE, STLD, CF, BSM, CNX, NTR, VRTX - Excellent selections. MUSA lasts trade from 164.00 and hanging around $ 237.00. And another million dollar trade in progress. Guess the same for the rest.

Something to ponder, and do what the Gboyz do. Let the stockcharts dot com tell you what to do.

Quillnpenn - a poor church mouse scratching for a living as a Swing Trader for over 45 years.
------------ Vision - Multi-Millionaire…Goal - earn 1.3% - 2.5% compounded Daily

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I love you dearly. But you can’t make your accusations of front-running (or pumping and dumping) stick unless you can offer proof.

What can be said – and has been said by many, many of their now disgusted subscribers-- is the TMF’s recommendations are almost never timely. Invariably, TMF is late to the trade, which they try to excuse by saying that the needed holding-period is 3-5 years and that, by then, “the market” will have recognized the potential of the stock and bid up its price.

In the past, that worked. Going forward is a whole 'nother matter, given how badly the Fed/Treasury cartel misunderstands basic economics, as in, you can’t spend an economy of trouble by issuing more fiat money. Sooner or later, your international counter-parties won’t take your paper.

The $US hasn’t yet been displaced as the world’s reserve currency, nor is that ever likely to happen, chiefly because the US will bomb any country that tries to bypass its petro-dollar. But a third of the world has already reduced its use of the $US in trade, and we’re seeing the spill-over/blow-back effect in domestic inflation. Higher inflation means higher interest-rates and lower stock prices, if not a recession.



Hi, Giovanni.

This was a marketing teaser designed to encourage Fools to subscribe to the premium subscription service being promoted. This is a general Public Community board and not a board from the service being promoted, so we can’t reveal the name of the companies. You would have to decide whether you wanted to join the service.

If you are a premium subscription subscriber, you can select your service from the My Services menu at the top of this page, then select Reports from the More menu. You can also select Help Center from the Help menu, then scroll down to the Advertisements Knowledge Base to see all the marketing reports to which your have access through your subscriptions.

For new members, please check your Welcome/Confirmation email for a link to your report. For Fools looking to put fresh cash to work, one strategy might be to focus on the Best Buy Now opportunities that are also Starter Stock companies, followed by the remaining Best Buy Now opportunities, followed by the remaining Starter Stock companies. This can help build a solid Foolish portfolio.

Fools can update their Communications Settings to control what emails they receive, including opting out of marketing emails:

Lastly, this a Public Community discussion board open to non-premium service Fools. Your question is best addressed to your Service Community discussion boards. Just select your service from the My Services menu, then select Community from the More menu.

Who notes Fools are unable to reveal premium service recommendations in the Public Community forums…

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re: JAFO

As a casual observer of reading charts for over 60 years, CHARTS DON’T LIE, PEOPLE DO from the days of pencil and graph paper by hand to software/screening tools that produce the GAP ups and GAP down reports and observing large volume mass out of the blue. If there is a huge GAP UP, then why !. Check any news or information from various sources.

We let Simon Sez tell us what to do with accuracy and if there is a huge spike gap, man that is a bonus.

The folks on this board jump on any HOT steamin deal that pops up from the Pied Pipers pecking order or the Wealth Management Group.

Check if the WMG owns any recs. Don’t see a recession at this time. The channel for SPY is 478 to 410. Today, SPY is sitting at 443 (up since yesterday). Just a little sine wave within the channel.

Just a thought,

Quill -


The chart of the day is AVA. Going to Piggyback on the 2% Theory and out. In at $89.40. Getting out at $91.20. check stock charts dot com.

Just sold WOW for a 2 percenter. Compounding and moving to the next day on the 2% table. Now on Day 103 out of Day 365.

Since the “v” EVA has gained 394.9312 percent to today for the HODLers.

Quill -


You’re misunderstanding your audience.

The people who read this board aren’t ‘traders’, and they don’t want to be one. You’ve gotta back off with the charting stuff UNLESS you are willing to show how charting might be useful to them as a risk-management tool.

This isn’t hard to do. In fact, Ben Stein has done it, as have many other market observers. But those are posts for another time and forum.


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