Truth Social goes north

Truth Social goes south.

A first day of trading in an IPO does not make a market.

Shares of Truth Social will probably end up on the pink sheets. Given time.

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Could be a great short. Just looking at volume. $DJT

Andy

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I think it’s a buy. Nobody ever lost money betting on the racism, ignorance and innumeracy of the American people.

The DJT-branded Bibles will be a best seller, too.

intercst

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I am not sure what numbers you are looking at but it seemed up 15% yesterday and another 16% after market. It currently looks to open at about $67. I agree, eventually this is likely to go bust, the wild card being T wins and the platform manages to actually start making revenue

Before you short, I’ll just note that Albaby has said (over on Shrewdm.com IIRC) that if TFG wins the election, this is a fabulously simple way for people to pour money into his pocket, just by “advertising” on Truth Social. It doesn’t involve the messy business of running a hotel, crawling in bed with a Bible salesman or any of that. And since the costs of a social site are close to fixed, nearly every dollar of additional revenue drops straight to the bottom line.

I can imagine Saudi Arabia, Qatar, even Ukraine running expensive “ad” campaigns, reaching almost no one (except, you know, orange Jesus). Expect glossy pictures from Boeing, Exxon, and maybe even BYD as it attempts to enter the market under the promised tariffs.

It’s like a vacuum cleaner for dollars. It could be a great short, but I suspect there will be enough money in the kitty to keep it going until November, at least.

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Or, it could be like donating to the United Way, at the pump seal company. If you want to be “well thought of” by the honchos, better pay up to their favorite cause.

Steve

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" Before you short, I’ll just note that Albaby has said (over on Shrewdm.com IIRC) that if TFG wins the election, this is a fabulously simple way for people to pour money into his pocket, just by “advertising” on Truth Social"

I don’t short stocks, but even if I did I’d avoid shorting this one. MBS gave Kushner $2billion to “manage”, so we can conclude that a few billion between “friends” is chump change for the Saudi’s ( and yeah, he expects to get his $2B back, but the annual fees Kushner can make off of it are a nice little stipend ).

Just think, if TFG gets elected, it will be totally legal to drop dollars in his account, in order to “get your voice heard”. Heck, Jeff Yass made an investment in it, and TFG quickly started singing a different tune in regards to Tik Tok. And the big dollar folks can just blow a few billion and buy it outright if TFG needs cash all at once.

Yeah, 'Murica feeling more like a banana republic everyday.

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Anchoring my red-eyed debauched focus on macroeconomics – if the unspeakable comes to past, then we should expect some significant macro impacts. Property values in Mexico are being bid up by paranoid gringos, including my brother-in-law. Pay-to-play describes a basic form of political corruption, but Pay-to-Operate rules the roost and kills the chickens.

Noooo, 'Murica is feeling like the FUTURE!, leaping right past Venezuela, Turkmenistan, and some other exotic advanced polities to go toe to toe with Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Serious question: if the nasty result does come to pass, which sectors or specific corps will suffer?

d fb

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Or, which will prosper. I was reading a “pro-growth” piece laying out the Shiny platform. A big part of which was protecting and nurturing the status quo, like oil and gas. You could probably add in for-profit health care and insurance.

Steve

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The racism, misogyny, and homophobia have always been here. Maybe worse everywhere else. The revolution is the rest of us against the lone white male. “Traditional America” is on life support with blubber the whale leading the charge…if he can remember what day of the week it is.

There are some truly dumb things being said. The norm.

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Aw heck, anybody want to guess that the quick pop and subsequent run-ups are entirely orchestrated and not the result of overwhelming demand for the financial prospects of the thing?

How simple to trade a few thousand shares rather than drop millions into “revenue” at this point. If you’re gonna grift, grift on a budget and take home the winnings in a wheelbarrow. So much more lucrative than selling Bibles to rubes.

This might well be Crazy Eddie to the max.

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“Property values in Mexico are being bid up by paranoid gringos, including my brother-in-law. Pay-to-play describes a basic form of political corruption, but Pay-to-Operate rules the roost and kills the chickens.”

I have never been to Mexico. I’ve been watching Narcos-Mexico on Netflix, it’s pretty good ( the Mexican actresses are gorgeous, of course ). The corruption portrayed is astounding. The every day average Mexicans do not dare speak out in public. And the drug cartels biggest customer is the good ole USA. America wants to have a “war on drugs”, but doesn’t seem to want to admit that willing Americans are the biggest illegal drug market in the world. So we ( collectively ) are a big, big part of the problem.

I don’t know what sectors or companies will thrive if we go totally banana republic. I’ll probably stick with index funds augmented by a few tech stocks.

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What are the largest companies in Brazil, Argentina, Chile, and Mexico?

Usually energy: electric utilities, and oil/gas. In Brazil and Argentina, the financial sector is particularly strong. Apparently the generalissimos need help stashing the money they steal from the country. :slight_smile:

Steve

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I’ve had this discussion many times in the past (especially with “name” stocks that everyone talks about). It’s VERY difficult to manipulate stock prices of normal stocks that have regular volume. And it would take massive amounts of capital and therefore be quite risky. It’s very easy to manipulate prices of stocks that have tiny volumes. That’s why everyone is advised to avoid anything trading on the pink sheets or the modern equivalent. But seriously, as recently as last week I’ve heard people say that “someone is manipulating Apple stock price” without even thinking how absurd a statement it is.

Now, this new stock traded over 23 million shares so far today*, so trading “a few thousand shares” wouldn’t even be noticeable much less move the price in any meaningful way. If trading volume dries up in the coming weeks, and it drops to a few tens of thousands a day, then there is a possibility of playing games with price using only a few thousand shares. But that remains to be seen. Volume will definitely settle down somewhat, but not likely to be low enough to allow for any meaningful manipulation.

* I kind of shuddered entering that vanity symbol to see the quote!

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Andy

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There are always suckers who love this stuff and do not know they are suckers.

Another famous Warren quote:

If you’ve been in the [poker] game 30 minutes and you don’t know who the patsy is, you’re the patsy.

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When they promise a tax cut it is convenient not to tell you but your income does not merit a tax cut. You are giving a little rich fat shyte the tax cut. We will find the revenues elsewhere.

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I didn’t mean (but yes, I said) “a few thousand shares” once. Just like any stock hustle it doesn’t happen all at once. The pump requires repeated action, “talking it up”, seeing it go by on the ticker on CNBC, chatter from the bobbling heads, - you know, astroturfing the conversation, just like any pump and dump.

It takes some will to get momentum, but that doesn’t need to be more than a few millions, perhaps tens of millions of dollars. Chump change if you think you can extract billions, or some reasonable fraction thereof.

And this one, unlike the ones you find in the dark corners of the internet, comes pre-loaded with some of the best affinity marketing possibilities out there today. Not for you and me, obviously, but there is a whole world of opportunity in selling gold bars, survival food, Bibles, gold shoes, and yes, now stock certificates. Others are spreading “influence” around overseas like it’s warm peanut butter, and the monies changing hands are vast. You think it’s hard to manipulate this stock? Just watch.

(I’m not making a direct comparison with the frenzy associated with Game Stop, which was a different hustle altogether, but at its height at the frenzy, 150 million shares traded in a day. You don’t need to go full Game Stop and get that lucky to still have a very significant payday.)

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Andy

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