It seems some European nations realize debt laden Europe is running out of money to continue to support Ukraine. Russia has been damaged seriously militarily & economically & demographically. But Russian oil & natural gas keeps Russia in the game. And European Treasury go to Russia in buy that oil & natural gas. The US has turned its back on Ukraine in favor of its Iranian adventure.
The time seems ripe for a deal.
The narrative of why the West supposedly needs to keep backing Ukraine’s war effort has evolved over the course of the conflict, from upholding international norms to regaining territory to defending democracy to protecting Europe against an imperialist Russia.
But the time has come to stop creating narratives and start accepting the painful reality that Ukraine faces existential peril if the war continues. Each new narrative only provides more time for Ukraine’s crisis to become more acute. Ukraine is bleeding land, people, and money. Its ports, bridges, data centers, transportation, mining, agriculture, industry, and infrastructure are being annihilated. It can no longer defend itself from devastating attacks on the capital and elsewhere—so an end to Russian attacks must be negotiated.
A compromise peace, rather than the total defeat of Russia, is not a fair outcome. Nor would the details of such a settlement be fair; Ukraine would have to make more concessions than Russia. But the peace cannot be fair because the war was never fair: It wasn’t fair that the more powerful Russian army illegally invaded Ukraine, and it wasn’t fair that the West used Ukraine as a proxy to fight against Russia, rather than settling the war in its early weeks when the opportunity arose.
And although Ukraine would have to make the more painful concessions, Russia too would need to give way on some things.
Russia has made an important concession in dropping its objection to Ukraine joining the EU.
At last week’s Warsaw Security Forum, Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide avoided the usual binary of Ukraine’s victory or capitulation. He stressed that since the Europeans are now paying for the war, they should also lead the diplomacy to end it. Eide noted that a peace agreement could secure a democratic, independent Ukraine integrated into the EU with 80% of its original territory.
At last week’s Warsaw Security Forum, Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide avoided the usual binary of Ukraine’s victory or capitulation. He stressed that since the Europeans are now paying for the war, they should also lead the diplomacy to end it. Eide noted that a peace agreement could secure a democratic, independent Ukraine integrated into the EU with 80% of its original territory.
The European coalition behind Ukraine faces serious problems of its own. Many European states are facing a sovereign debt crisis as war costs mount. The EU has been unable to persuade Belgium to make use of Russia’s frozen assets to fund the war. All the while, the dirty reality is that, since the war began, Europe has spent more on Russian energy imports than on weapons for Ukraine.
At the same time, Ukraine’s campaign of intensified deep strikes on Russia – supported by the Europeans and greenlit by the Trump Administration in spring 2026 – has failed to pressure Putin into a ceasefire. Without U.S. intelligence and weapons supplies, Europe lacks the military leverage to continue this effort on its own. There is no viable European war plan, only reactive crisis management and ad hoc solutions about Ukraine, coupled with repeated hyping of Russia’s “hybrid war” threat.
Russia has responded positively to the proposals sent from Oslo. Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. have agreed to a three-way summit in November, according to Zelensky. The key question now is whether other European governments will take the Oslo initiative seriously and agree on who can represent Europe in these talks.
