Ukrainian offesive underway

Well-trained Ukrainian troops had been gathering at strategic locations near the front lines in recent days, Western officials said last week…Multiple reports said a major battle has begun in southeastern Ukraine, south of the major Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia.

Well-placed unofficial pro-Ukrainian sources have said the southeastern front is becoming more active and there are unconfirmed images and reports that Ukraine’s new modern German-made Leopard 2 tanks are involved in the offensive.

DB2

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It comes down to definition, but the definition used by my Ukrainian friends has not. been fulfilled. He points out how much of what Ukraine has been saying and doing is to maximize the nervous and ready to panic emotions of the Russian soldiers while Ukraine positions, “shapes” (small scale pushing of Russians into more vulnerable locations given both the large scale Ukrainian war plans and small scale tactics), and pushes a hell of a lot of logistics support into the right spots.

When then? I asked. Donno he answered.

david fb

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Do the Russians still have as many shells as they did? In other words are the cannons calming down? The Russians have to be running lower by now.

The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has appeared to concede the severity of the Kremlin’s recent military reversals in Ukraine, insisting Russia would “stabilise” the situation in four Ukrainian regions it illegally claimed as its own territory last week.

Russia has suffered significant losses in two of the four regions since Friday, when Putin signed treaties to incorporate them into Russia by force, with Russian officials saying their forces were “regrouping”.

DB2

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When Russians and Russia are out of Ukraine including Crimea we need to admit Ukraine into NATO.

If Russians have feelings frankly my dear I don’t give a damn. Then again I never have after getting a good sense of my family history.

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The counteroffensive began about three weeks later, with Ukraine making initial gains in Donetsk and Luhansk, two regions in eastern Ukraine that were illegally annexed by Russia last year.

Since then, however, the pace of progress has slowed considerably, leading to some frustration from Ukraine’s backers in the West, who hoped that the heavy weaponry and training they had provided would drive the Russian occupiers out of the country’s southeastern provinces.

So far, however, Russia’s defensive positions appear to be holding — while questions about the future of the conflict are growing.

DB2

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I’m going to lay down a marker that this analysis is wrong. The offensive started off with the Ukrainians trying to breech Russian lines with combined arms maneuver warfare. This resulted in high Ukrainian losses, so they stopped doing that. Instead shifting to degrading Russian artillery, counter-battery radar, and supply depots/logistics centers.

Once that phase of the attack is complete, I predict Ukraine will shift back more towards combined arms assaults on Russian lines. At the same time, while progress has been slow, Russia has not been able to hold ground over long sections of the front. They are not giving up big gains to be sure, but they aren’t holding either. The fact that the Russians are having trouble is not a good omen for them.

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According to the Secretary of State, Ukraine has retaken half of the territory previously occupied by Russian troops.

Doesn’t sound like a failure to me.

Yes, it’s from CNN. But the words are the Secretary’s, not commentary by the reporter. The statement is in the first minute, so it doesn’t take long to get to it.

—Peter

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DB2,

Very good thing that no one here would bring Russian planted propaganda into this forum.

Very good thing you’d bring in American planted misinformation. Why would we do that? Because. The Russians want a picture of how this war is going in the west. While we look doubtfully on this war when it turns in our direction that is when Russia is demoralized. Right now going slow is not giving Russia any hope. Smashing them is later.

Things take time.

Just hearing about the cluster bombs. Ouch! That will soften up the defenses.

We all have to remember the Ukrainians are losing some 300 people per day. We can not rush that and expect to win this war. Russia does have a larger military.

Yes, but not since early June when the Ukrainian counteroffensive got underway.
Looking at maps from May 31 and from July 14 I don’t see much change.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-war-maps-reveal-how-zelenskys-counteroffensive-is-going/ar-AA1dUI2T#image=1

DB2

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What misinformation? Do you have different maps that show large changes in the front line?

DB2

The Russian defenses need to be softened up. In some regards the defenses are shifting position with the bulk of Russia’s men moving to the weak areas off and on.

It is about saving Ukrainian soldiers unless we want to lose this war. We are not putting boots on the ground.

The Ukrainians are out manned. Feeding them into a meat grinder means losing this war.

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The Russian defenses need to be softened up

There is no easy solution for the current Ukrainian forces. USAF would land a GPS-guided JDAM onto every Russian bunker, with optional “Hi There” or “Dear Ivan” stenciled on if that helps. But Ukraine does not have the air power to

  1. suppress and destroy Russian air defenses
  2. then hit tens of thousands of individual targets with thousand pound bombs

The more precise of their artillery rounds can only strike a smaller set of targets, and are subject to limited shell supply.

About supply, William Spaniel here argues for a government guarantee for payment for artillery shell production. Not only addressing the shortages of shells, but also pressuring Russia with the implied future supply and thus resilience of the Ukrainian war effort.

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Ukraine is just beginning to use cluster munitions. This should do something to Russian moral. Meaning with enough pressure and losses the Russians will turn tail and run. There is a tipping point. Guys in larger groups depend on cowardice. Paradox of male power. Cowards force issues till they fail.

Now that it’s November, does someone who’s been following things have a summary of this year’s campaign?

DB2

So, nobody knows what’s gone on over the last five months? Was the summer counteroffensive considered a bust?

DB2

I don’t know if it accomplished its objective but it seems like it can’t be called “a bust” either. If it was truly a bust we’d be hearing about exactly that, but all seems like, at worst, status quo

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If the objective is to 1) Continually degrade Russia (finances, military, power, economy, etc), and 2) Display an abject lesson to China about military adventures in neighboring countries, then it may be working.

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Yes exactly. Barring an outright reversal it can be said it has accomplished some desired larger objectives even if not its intended military objective: i.e. Remove Russians/reclaim Ukraine

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This might help:

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