https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20220803-us-eu-and-i…
I can not make US political comments.
These talks are possibly going to be more fruitful.
Also depends on Russia and China being cut out for many reasons. I do not know if they are permanently cut out but hopefully.
One side, needs face-saving justification to buy fossil fuel from Iran.
Iran, will in return become a nuclear power in due time - only it’ll be easier for them to fund it once the deal goes thru.
I have no problem with either of those forgone conclusions.
I have no problem with either of those forgone conclusions.
The Iranians are not interested in being a nuclear power. They have a crazy government as far as all of us can see. But they are a very humane people like us.
They only are leveraging their nuclear development to get the sanctions lifted. They want to do business.
The Iranians other wise do not need to negotiate not to have nuclear weapons. The leaders can just ignore us if that was their intent. North Korea always ignores us. Iran wants the deal if the sanctions are lifted.
Listen we place sanctions in place to get nations to change course. The Iranians want to change course but we will ignore them if they do because we do not like their government. Their culture their government. That is not up to us.
I remember some time ago - I had posted worried about Putin and Ukraine, and consensus answer was that he’s crazy, KGB, etc etc - - but not much fear of invasion. Well, ok.
I think we’re both right - in that yes there’s parts of Iran that wants to do business - they know their young population especially is frustrated and they know they can’t keep putting down protests.
But I also feel that the old guard, the hardliners, whatever we wish to call them - - has seen something:
Saddam -gone. Gaddafi - gone.
Pakistan? They can fund Al Qaeda, give posh house to Bin Laden - and be invited to the White House to charmingly say "human rights! Women’s rights!’ and get their picture taken with Senators.
Pakistan has nukes.
When what we refer to as despots look around - I think they see that it’s wise to become a nuclear power because it seems the nuclear leaders get fear and respect - where as “allies” of America - who don’t have nukes - eventually end up dead, unable to tell their tale.
So yeah, America gets fossil fuels - fine by me. Iran gets nukes - fine by me. Iran doesn’t get nukes? Ok, I can get behind that also.
What I don’t want is impetus for some in the West to have war with Iran. There’s factions that have girded for this ever since before 9-11. My ‘neutral’ on Iran is based on other agendas I want to see come to fruition but this is not the venue to discuss those. But those agendas decidedly stop at soldiers - I don’t want another adventure in the desert to please think-tankers with god-complexes who wish to shape the ancient world.
I agree Ukraine was to be invaded. That was obvious.
Our real rub with the Iranian government is Suni v Shia. It is a sticky wicket.
In practical terms the Suni and Shia are often intermarried across the areas.
Early on in Gulf War II in Iraq our guys were told by locals who the bad guys were. We were used left and right. We arrested something like 300k guys overnight.
The rub here is we are being used again SA v Iran. Does not matter all the differences etc…the complete hatreds etc…we will be used on the present course…
Lets cut a deal and make sure for the next decade the area is not building nukes on top of the rough problems there are in the area.
"I agree Ukraine was to be invaded. That was obvious. "
More than a handful of our brethren felt it was not obvious - “nut” “KGB” were terms used.
"Our real rub with the Iranian government is Suni v Shia. It is a sticky wicket.
In practical terms the Suni and Shia are often intermarried across the areas. "
What happens is that ancient cultures - no, not “200 years old! Oh look it’s historic!” like we Americans think - - but civilizations that are around for centuries - - succumb to human nature - and the slickest among them create, and promote factions as a means of gaining power, sex, and money - -and sometimes - convenient stuff like public health or norms. Yes Sunni and Shia marry. BUT…Europe tought us in the West that exploiting these factions is the ticket to colonizing them. So many current borders are carved up by our innocent, enlightened friends whose Empire never saw a sunset. Lean forward… tiny European nations - EXPLOITED a differences amongst peoples…offered perks to the noblemen, the rich, and the academics…who all but allowed these empires in. (Sound familiar??? Keep in mind we’re 200 years old. Imagine the last 20 years of American “society” continuing these trends generationally…)
"Early on in Gulf War II in Iraq our guys were told by locals who the bad guys were. We were used left and right. We arrested something like 300k guys overnight. "
While Smug Clueless people didn’t understand to have a bloody cup of tea if offered. Or not to fire all of Saddam’s janitors and DMV clerks because gasp - they might join the other side because now their dental plan and 401K and employee gym is nixed.
“The rub here is we are being used again SA v Iran. Does not matter all the differences etc…the complete hatreds etc…we will be used on the present course…”
Some might say we reap what we sow. We sure loved what Saddam did - partially with OUR backing - to 500,000 Iranians back in the good ol days. The fun part about interventionism is - there’s a 100Z% chance we’ll tick one side off and they will breed their young to do things like…take flying lessons, or learn shall we say logistics and computers…
“Lets cut a deal and make sure for the next decade the area is not building nukes on top of the rough problems there are in the area.”
Would be nice - because the one constant is: America - led by theorists, corrupt interests, and academics - will do what they do best - PAY, PAY , PAY. (There’s a reason why street vendors go for American tourists first.
So yeah - I’d love if Iran didn’t get nukes.
But, well - after the Americans pay them off, and save 50 cents on a gallon of gas, and see the sainted S&P 500 (the deity on some online forums, ahem)…Hopefully Iran complies. But - if the day comes they announce and prove a successful nuke test – this writer - won’t have a peep to say about it - publicly, that is. Rarely in my political life can I say “I’m good either way” - -but, well, I’m enjoying this luxury now.