New potential Black Swan

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/12/middleeast/iran-nuclear-w…

Long-running tensions over Iran’s nuclear capabilities may have reached a point of no return this week, thrusting the Middle East into uncharted waters.

Tehran has ramped up uranium enrichment at a pace not seen since the 2015 signing of a landmark deal, which saw Iran curb uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief, before former United States President Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018.

Analysts believe that Tehran may have already attained the material needed to manufacture a nuclear weapon.

On Thursday, Iran switched off surveillance cameras used by the international nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, to monitor activity at the country’s key nuclear facilities. The move, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi warned, could deal a “fatal blow” to negotiations that seek to revive the nuclear deal.

Talks around the JCPOA are at a standstill over mounting pressure from Tehran to have the country’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – the elite branch of the Iranian Armed Forces – delisted as a terror organization. This is believed to be the final sticking point in nearly a year and a half of negotiations between the two countries.

Both sides have so far refused to budge on the issue, thanks to domestic political pressure in their respective countries.

Trump listed the IRGC as a foreign terror organization during his final weeks in office. The decision was called a “poison pill” by his critics, who accused Trump of throwing a wrench in the wheels of future negotiations over the restoration of the JCPOA.

Jeff

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Jeff,

The passage of the deal with Iran by law only needs 41 senators to ratify it. All Republicans and 16 Democrats are against it.

The only reason any of them are against it is a stand against Iran where the senators have not reeled their necks back in. In other words their hot air wont stop.

Iran’s move is two things and the US senate gets to choose. Either Iran becomes a nuclear power in a matter of a few months or the US senators get honest with America instead the puffing up of their petty little careers.

It is very possible to be a US senator and be so self absorbed you do not actually get anything intelligent done.

This post is meant to ignore any divide between our parties and be non political in that regard. This is about the efficacy of a deal with the Iranians or putting us into an idiotic need for war with Iran.

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Considering that Iran was lied to about sanctions and the U.S. has been arrogant about how Iran is treated. Iran has no reason to not become a nuclear power.

Every country that has the desire to not be under the thumb of U.S. politics understands that nuclear power is the only
way to guarantee that.

Iran will be a nuclear power. Israel will have to deal with it. Probably the easiest way for Israel to deal with it is to acknowledge that they are in fact a nuclear power.

Cheers
Qazulight

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Iran has no reason to not become a nuclear power.

This is totally untrue. Iran is at the negotiating table in good faith because down the road if Iran has nukes their main competitor SA will get nukes. Both countries do not want them because the probability of use is too high. Both countries are currently rational enough to know this.

Iran really only wants the sanctions lifted.

This deal would have been consummated a couple of months ago but is hung up in the US Senate. The majority of senators are standing on “principles” or in other words being idiotic blowhards.

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Iran has no reason to not become a nuclear power.
Yep Qaddafi is lesson to governments on the US shyte list.

Iran’s government is a theocracy. It is not a one man show dictatorship like Qaddafi was. We can not see one of their leaders die and the entire government disappear. It does not work that way.

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We can not see one of their leaders die and the entire government disappear. It does not work that way.

Yet many here seem to believe the removal of Putin would change the behavior of Russia. That too would be unlikely.

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Putin is a dictator with central power. The government would not disappear as in Libya but a complete reform would happen. The kleptocracy is really centered in Putin’s hands. It is really only his wealth. Or theft. He controls his top people strictly.

Iran has strong management of its parties. Note I said parties. Iran is not one party rule. Russia is one party rule. By strong management it leans heavily into religion as a cultural norm not really just any sort of political whim.

“It is very possible to be a US senator and be so self absorbed you do not actually get anything intelligent done.”

Possible? It’s the norm…

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The government would not disappear as in Libya but a complete reform would happen.

LOL I don’t think so. A Putin like figure would emerge to take control along with the oligarchs. The replacement may be less forceful or yield less power than Putin but the general Putin like tone within Russia would remain. Russian are not culturally similar to Americans. Less than the differences between Afghanistan or the Middle East or Vietnam to the USA but differences all the same.
Russians are more communal & less individualistic relative to USians. Nationalistic & support national security as they have been invaded many times over their long history. Mongols, Swedes, Poles, French & Germany.
Prior to Putin, Russia had a shaky totalitarian democracy under Yeltsin. There is little democratic tradition in Russia.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Yeltsin
http://smarthistories.com/russia-under-yeltsin/

We need to remember that the Harvard Institute for International Development advisory group to “aid” Russia in converting its economy to a market economy set the stage for Putin & the oligarchs while some members of that group enriched themselves from inside information.
https://discussion.fool.com/us-setting-the-stage-for-a-putin-350…

Perhaps the Ukrainian adventure is a case of the US reaping what they had sown in Russia those few decades ago. Not much long term thinking in Washington DC.

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Long-running tensions over Iran’s nuclear capabilities may have reached a point of no return this week, thrusting the Middle East into uncharted waters.

I hate to be too pedantic, but a black swan is the thing you don’t see coming. In 2015, the US government gave Iran major incentives to create a nuclear weapon. In the subsequent seven years, Iran has done what everyone expected them to do. The decision to encourage Iran to manufacture a nuclear weapon is surely unfortunate, but it is definitely not a black swan.

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tj,

I do not pretend to speak of all people in any country. It is rife with becoming a bigot.

LOL I don’t think so. A Putin like figure would emerge to take control along with the oligarchs.

There were oligarchs in Russia under Putin. Putin got rid of them. Russia is a kleptocracy. The next ruler would not bring in the current Putin kleptocrats. They’d all be gone. The communist party would remain no doubt. The reform would be economic internal to Russia. The corruption would be diminished for at least a period of time. The outward manifestations of Russian foreign policy would cease for now to be antagonizing.

In 2015, the US government gave Iran major incentives to create a nuclear weapon.

I have heard that story before.

Iran wants the sanctions lifted. That is the only incentive the country has for going nuclear. The country is back at the negotiating table in good faith. The US senate is blocking the agreement. The rest of the world wants this agreement.

The alternative will be war with Iran. The war will be a must as we get closer to Iran getting the bomb. If Iran gets it SA must get it. They are competitors. For decades both of them have decided not to go nuclear to be responsible. Because it is an unknown down the road if one of their governments was reckless and would use such a weapon. The earth is uninhabitable if there is a small nuclear war.

The people who have said in 2015 blah blah blah are the same blowhards stopping this deal. Most of them have never been in uniform. Most of them do not care whose sons and daughters return in body bags as they salute the casket.

Yet 2015 blah blah blah. A total lie some people are willing to swallow. Iran wants the sanctions lifted. I do not like their government, but they are right. Lift the damned sanctions.

We will get over 1979 just as the British got over 1776.

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You can’t expect Israel to always be the only source in “containing” nuclear weapon ambitions in the middle east!

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/11/world/middleeast/iran-nuc…

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Sunray,

Israel brought a lot of ex Russian and other eastern Jewish folks into the country. The country’s politics turned hard against thinking over things in the public discourse. This not the Israel of its founding. Israel is reactionary.

Israel was against the Iran deal only out of reactionary politics. Dumb. Really just dumb. Now there is no deal and Iran is going for nukes. Just want Israel was worried about. Israeli leadership still has not embraced having a deal. Instead our country is supposed to go to war and stop the Iranians from having their own government? Arrogant and dumb on Israel’s part.

I do not think we will go to war with Iran. I think Iran will get the nukes the senate blowhards dont want. More stupidity. I think the stupid people will claim this was a victory for them. It has to be someone else’s loss.

Thank you for recommending this post to our Best of feature.

I hate to be too pedantic, but a black swan is the thing you don’t see coming.

There are some things we disagree on, but this ain’t one of them.

Desert (Words have meaning, actions have consequences.) Dave

For decades both of them have decided not to go nuclear to be responsible.

Er… what newspapers have you been reading?

Iran wants the sanctions lifted. That is the only incentive the country has for going nuclear.

Reminds me of the story of the guy convicted of murdering his wife; he claimed she’d forgive him if only she were alive.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanctions_against_Iran#:~:text…

Iran has been fighting tooth and nail to develop a nuclear weapon for as long as I can remember.

The economic crisis in Iran: Rial value drops amid US sanctions
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHPfoxM7hLY

https://www.bing.com/search?q=what+would+Iran+do+with+nukes&…

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For decades both of them have decided not to go nuclear to be responsible.

Er… what newspapers have you been reading?

Telegraph,

It is called real life. Both countries have had the time to build a launch force of nuclear weapons. SA is not short on the money to do so. Iran short on money is doing so.

Correct me if I am wrong but none of us trust any of the news sources. I am going with what actually is happening. Nothing…except for one demand by Iran, end the sanctions! “We wont do this if you end the sanctions”. No one here is so thick they can not understand that.

Israel was against the Iran deal only out of reactionary politics.

On the diplomatic front, Naftali Bennett rushed Thursday to Abu Dhabi, a new ally of the Jewish state also worried about the Iranian threat.

The visit came hours after the adoption of a resolution by the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna criticizing Iran’s “lack of cooperation” in controlling its nuclear facilities.

https://newsrnd.com/news/2022-06-09-israel-iran–the-secret-…

Dave,

It is all a very high stakes game of chicken between the US senate and Iran.

The US senate is in everyone’s way.