To view the CURRENT state of the pandemic, I look at the viral loads in wastewater. People shed viruses well before they feel symptoms or get tested. (Cutbacks in testing are deflating the case numbers. Let’s also not forget that there have been times when the testing capacity couldn’t keep up with demand.) Thus, case numbers are a lagging indicator. Hospitalizations lag further behind, ICU admissions lag further behind hospitalizations, and deaths come last.
To see what’s happening nationally, go to https://biobot.io/data/ . The recent post-BA1 decline in the viral load clearly stopped in March and have since been on a rebound. Fortunately, it appears that the rate of increase has been slowing down. (The Northeast seems to have already peaked.) Of course, the anti-mask brigade is determined to keep the surge going as long as possible.
A simple web search can direct you to the wastewater viral loads for your state and local area.
I’m relying on this indicator to assess the risk level.