The turning point

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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The markets look as IF they could turn again to the south. I will add a Nasdaq chart. ’

Of course things are not at all known, but the chart can give an immediate eyeball set of questions.

https://schrts.co/BScvdTzI

The simple would this go up or down?

No more TA on that, just it looks like a bad thing can happen. It is not going for new highs…most likely right now.

This could be why…the 10 year yield looks like it will probably go higher.

https://schrts.co/sBTzDutA

The FA is great right now? Sort of and looking into the future no not at all. We document that constantly.

Cryptos BTC and Eth becoming two different animals? They always were.

BTC looks bad or anemic.

https://schrts.co/aMiZKbGx

It is now the odd man out with much higher transaction costs and far less utility than Eth. At least this could be the case in the next several weeks as Eth goes to proof of stake.

Eth

https://schrts.co/auVNwEUC

Now my personal problem I not invested in Eth beyond $360 but my art will trade in Eth. Can I read this independently of my material needs?

The chart looks poised to go higher. But the proof of stake happens end of September if it happens as declared.

The real question is will Eth ride down as the market falls? Or will the younger shrewd investors rally Eth regardless of their fathers’ brick and mortar economy? The two big cryptos in a sense have very little direct exposure to the business world on Wall Street. In that crypto is not involved with XOM or BAC or any of them reporting profits.

It is like owning or exchanging a bar of gold in that if JPM failed tomorrow the gold would not notice. Yet a piece of land would go down in value.

My only need to watch for the next two to three weeks. The story is about to unfurl.

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The markets look as IF they could turn again to the south…

Of course things are not at all known, but the chart can give an immediate eyeball set of questions.

Sometimes I can’t resist looking at the charts and speculating about what they may show about the future, but I believe it’s basically guesswork.

The two big cryptos in a sense have very little direct exposure to the business world on Wall Street. In that crypto is not involved with XOM or BAC or any of them reporting profits.

I think there’s probably a link between the stock market and the crypto market in that people who speculate in one will often speculate in the other, and if the stock market tanks, that makes a lot of those people poorer and so they may sell crypto to preserve capital or out of general fear of more losses.

Certainly we haven’t seen much of the ‘digital gold’ type of action that was hypothesized for crypto, in which people supposedly would see it as a safe haven in inflationary times/stock market unrest. Instead both have traded down over the last year as inflation reared its ugly head and people worried about the economic impacts.

8 Likes
3

Top to May Bottom in Eth -80%
On the SPY -25%

smaller numbers make the percentages necessary for a recovery larger

Recent bottom in Eth till recent high 110% up
On the SPY 17%

There is a direct correlation with the equity markets. Eth is not a commodity that correlation is weaker.

The wild card is interest rates.

The rotations are changing based on interest rates. We are going into new territory. The rates are forcing commodities lower. Forcing equities and bonds lower.

But if the ten year treasury yield chops sideways values can advance. If the yield rises bonds and equities get squeezed.

The rotation is into cash primarily.

The parameters for Eth are wealthy businesspeople under age 45. Do not trust them to behave by the norms. Any upward pressure in prices will see Eth rise. The cloud over Eth is the change to PoS. Eth can become heavily news dominated for the rest of the year. I wont predict yet what the news will do to the value.

Assume the under 45 business people are having the same problems as all of us turning to cash as well. Cash will burn a hole in many pockets.

For now Eth goes lower is the odds on. I agree. As the rotation comes into play this can change rapidly.

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Sometimes I can’t resist looking at the charts and speculating about what they may show about the future, but I believe it’s basically guesswork.

Some patterns are less ‘guesswork’ than others.

The Captain

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The markets look as IF they could turn again to the south…

The markets must be open… somewhere. They almost never turn south when they aren’t open. Any time they ARE open, they could turn south.

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The markets must be open… somewhere. They almost never turn south when they aren’t open. Any time they ARE open, they could turn south.

Most crypto is interesting in that respect … they trade 24/7 including weekends and holidays.

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Mark,

This is getting interesting. My OP was a hint that it is possible equities go lower and Eth goes higher.

Turns out Sept 15 is the crossover to PoS. Not the end of the month as I thought I had read. The switchover has been well debugged in testing.

My contracts will be easier to write than I had thought. The openZepplin standard is self propagating.

I have a lot going on right now. s

Side note the change to PoS begins a process of BTC dropping out.