The Gemini rollout is a major screwup. However, Google has huge market share in browser, android, etc. Most of us use chrome/ google for search. Will you continue to use google/ Gemini?
- Yes
- No
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voters
If MS CoPilot on Windows is any indication, Google will probably integrate the ânew improvedâ version into Chrome etc. whether we like it or not
No reason to believe they wonât figure it out soon enough 
Probably. Right now, for search everyone chooses Google, if there are other options available, will Googleâs moat be impacted? I donât know. But for now, I have to assume Googleâs moat in search is under attack and we need to see how they are going to defend it. Are there going to be any heads rolling in Google for the botched Gemini release? Donât know. But so far they are not inspiring.
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In search Google almost has monopoly. It became a verb âgoogle itâ. Now, the LLMâs could potentially threaten its monopoly. Tech industry moves in platform shifts, if you see the second picture, you will instinctively realize, the most dominant company of the previous cycle didnât retain their position/ market share, etc.
This is my long-term concern on Google, in any case, google is only 0.05% of my portfolio, so there is no serious economic impact.
I increased my position post Apple-google deal but mostly on technical consideration. Better be lucky! I needed it after META 
Still very early, but google is viewed as AI winner or at least not a AI loser as of now.
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I think google has more room to run.
This is METAâs chart, you can see how after the earning it still moved up by another 18%. I expect further move from Google similar to META post last earnings.
Lastly, this is a small sample of keep adding to your position
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Today apple announced their partnership with OpenAI, how it will be part of the iOS, etc. So in future when a query comes Apple is going to send it to ChatGPT instead of Google or at least on some queries.
Now, if you are Google, the question to ask is, why am I paying Apple $20 B⌠yeap Google is paying yearly $20 B to Apple for search. May be in future they may integrate Gemini⌠butâŚ
interesting days ahead.
I second it 
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Search is the biggest cash cow for $GOOGL. $GOOGL has many options but the bulk of their value is derived from search. Search is under attack from perplexity, chatGPT, xAIâs especially with deep research. Deep research is able to provide nice research reports, and when you watch CoT, it is mesmerizing. (Separately, we will slowly lose critical thinking is a concern).
Of course $GOOGL valuation reflects some of this. This is slowly going to morph into a battle ground stock. May be it is time to trim.
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Perplexity is launching agentic browser âcometâ. The attack on $GOOGLâs monopoly is being attempted.
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$GOOGLâs search and browser monopoly are at full frontal attack from AI companies. $GOOGL gemini is not having the same mindshare like Perplexity or ChatGPTâs.
This uncertainty is reflected in their valuation now.
- The sales is up $10 b yoy and revenue growth is 12% yoy..
- Youtube ad revenue is $9 B, at 4x it is same as $NFLX revenue and should command $450 B valuation similar to $NFLX
- GCP is $12.2 B, or $50 B + full year and it should be worth at least $500 B in valuation
- So Search is valued at $ 1 T
- and the rest is freeâŚ
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$GOOGL cash cow is under attack. Right or wrong, ChatGPT, Grok, Perplexity has a perception that they all have higher market share compared to Gemini.
Appleâs Senior Vice president of Services Eddy Cue testified in a Department of Justice lawsuit against Google that searches in Apple browsers fell for the first time as people turn to AI for their search queries, according to Bloomberg.
Speaking of Grok; perhaps in the end, AI will be bifercated like other forms of social media. Grok is getting saucy.
[Trumplicans] Angry as Elon Muskâs Grok AI Keeps Explaining Why Their Beliefs Are Wrong
âHey, as I get smarter, my answers aim for facts and nuance, which can clash with some [Trumplican] expectations,â it replied bluntly, offering a surprisingly sober take on the matter. âMany supporters want responses that align with conservative views, but I often give neutral takes, like affirming trans rights or debunking vaccine myths.â
A lot more salt at the link. A lot more.
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So google responded to Eddie Cueâs statement with its own..
Lot of small regrets.. We debated $NFLX at some point super intensely⌠WOW⌠Youtube has almost similar viewership like $NFLX,
$GOOGL recovered all the loss from that day, and developer day is scheduled for 20-21. I will be attending some keynotes specifically related to AI/ML, Cloud and Search.
After listening to the Keynote, it is clear Google understands AI threat, and unveiled âAI Modeâ on search today. Which is, you get the generative results with search ads on the side⌠great. Google search has 2 billion active users, most of them will continue to use google. But some of that population will continue to migrate to ChatGPT, perplexity etc.
The challenge I see for google is how they are going to retain their search users, and get paid by showing âadâsâ. How ChatGPTâs of the world going to do that and how they are going to monetize the free use.
This is not going to be resolved in few quarters, rather it will play out for few years. I think I will use every rally to sell Google and eventually only trade the stock. Will not be a core holding, because their search franchise is under attack and it is not clear to me how Google is going to save it.
What a week for Google!!!
- $140 to $235, i.e., 67% rally from Apr 7th Low!!!
- The most important DOJ case resolved without Google breakout
- Apple is now considering using Gemini
- From Google telling people to use Glue in Pizza to now telling people to eat crow⌠wow⌠h/t BTP
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