All 17 of us are roughly split 50/50 on the future of QQQ when polled back on Feb 5 when QQQ was at 306. Today QQQ is at 299, about 2% lower despite inflation plodding lower on its own time, bank failures and then Fed interventions to support the banking system.
9 of 17 or 52.9% voted that QQQ declines back to 260 or lower at some point in 2023
(the TMF poll engine calls this 52% and i guess does not round up)
8 of 17 or 47.1% voted that QQQ stays above 260 in 2023
and one person bravely said:
There are different views on what the Fed will do next week on interest rates, some say the Fed will pause out of caution with the banking system, others say they continue with another 25bp, and yet others say they will hike 50bp to up the inflation flight.
In the spirit of KC, I will say the Fed sticks to their plan and hikes by 25bp by March 22. (I think the derivatives market is largely predicting the same, but has been moving around because of banking stress)