Important context for my portfolio reviews: I run a concentrated portfolio and WARNING the swings can be huge. From the 2021 high to the 2022 low, my portfolio fell more than 60%. For every $100 I had at the top I had just $40 left! Staggering. So, before trying this style, even with a small portion of your total net worth, please understand the downside – it’s much steeper than if you own an index, or a bunch of megacaps. Also, don’t follow or copy me, Saul, or anyone. We may sell a position or buy a new one at any time, so it’s impossible to follow anyway. Also, to succeed with a concentrated portfolio, you must rely on your own decisions.
August was a pretty huge month for a lot of companies, like PTON which was up about 30%. But it was also a disaster for others, like SMCI which was down almost 40%. The S&P ended up just 2% or so for the month.
I ended July with 16 companies. In August I sold 9 of them! Let’s take a look at all 16…I’ll break them into 4 categories based on: 1) price performance in August, and 2) my confidence in them.
Price went DOWN and confidence stayed the same:
Amazon – I added
Nvidia - I added (*price actually ended flattish…but it was down a LOT at times)
Price went UP and confidence stayed the same:
Transmedics - I trimmed
Peloton - I trimmed
Axon - I trimmed
Mercadolibre - I trimmed
Nu Holdings - I trimmed
Monday - I sold
Zscaler - I sold
Zoom - I sold
Twilio - I sold
Price went UP and confidence went down:
Applovin - I sold
Price went DOWN and confidence went down:
Supermicro - I sold
Upwork - I sold
Atlassian - I sold
ELF - I sold
For the things where confidence went down, that’s why I sold. Price isn’t the issue.
For Monday, Zscaler, Zoom, and Twilio, I sold because I just don’t see much more upside long term. I don’t think I’d add them back, even at a lower price.
For the stuff I trimmed… TMDX is awesome, but it’s waaaaay too expensive to have a ton of upside at this point. Same with Axon. Peloton is tough to value, so I wanted to take some quick profits and wait to see if it falls back. And MELI and NU still confuse me a bit. I didn’t love NU’s revenue growth, and I worry about both next quarter due to the weak Brazilian Real. For all of these, I was happy to take some gains. I didn’t sell out completely, because as long as nothing changes with the companies, I’d add back to any of these if the price falls enough.
I added to AMZN and NVDA for lack of other options, but also because I think AMZN is quite undervalued, and because I’m very unwilling to put limits on what NVDA can accomplish.
So I’m back to just 7 companies, and since many are very small positions, I added back a little VOO (S&P 500 etf). Obviously I also need to find some other stuff to add, as cash is way too high.
Wrapping up
Happy September, everybody!
Bear
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” - Attributed to Albert Einstein
Previous Month Summaries
Dec 2016 (contains links to all 2016 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio at the end of 2016 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community
Dec 2017 (contains links to all 2017 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2017 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community
Dec 2018 (contains links to all 2018 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2018 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community
Dec 2019 (contains links to all 2019 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2019 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community
Dec 2020 (contains links to all 2020 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2020 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community
Dec 2021 (contains links to all 2021 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through 12/2021 - Saul’s Investing Discussions - Motley Fool Community
Dec 2022 (contains links to all 2022 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through 12/2022
Dec 2023 (contains links to all 2023 monthly posts): Bear's Portfolio through 12/2023
Jan 2024: Bear's Portfolio through 01/2024
Feb 2024: Bear's Portfolio through 02/2024
Mar 2024: Bear's Portfolio through 03/2024
Apr 2024: Bear's Portfolio through 04/2024
May 2024: Bear's Portfolio through 05/2024
Jun 2024: Bear's Portfolio through 06/2024
Jul 2024: Bear's Portfolio through 07/2024