Bear's Portfolio through 09/2021

PaulWBryant · September 30, 2021, 6:24pm


**Port Return**
Jan +7.3% YTD
Feb +6.7% YTD
Mar +2.0% YTD
Apr +9.8% YTD
May +12.4% YTD
Jun +29.2% YTD
Jul +33.9% YTD
Aug +65.1% YTD
Sep +68.8% YTD

Before I even give my portfolio, let me warn you: I’m holding a higher cash allocation than I’d like. The reason is simply that at present I can’t find enough high-conviction holdings. I feel very good about my top 3, and after that I’m much less confident that these are businesses I understand. With the companies that are new to me, I’m hopeful that I will build conviction over time, but I need to learn more.

The cash position is 38.4% of my portfolio, but it had actually gotten as high as 56% during September. That has never happened before, or even close. But a lot happened this month:

I finally sold Docusign, which had been a 15%+ position. I explained here: https://discussion.fool.com/updating-docusign-beliefs-34923319.a…
And here: https://discussion.fool.com/i-really-liked-this-post-jwiest-and-…

I drastically reduced Crowdstrike which had been at 13.2% last month – more about that below.

I sold out of Roku which had been 3.6%. I will likely avoid advertising revenue businesses going forward…I’ve messed up with Roku multiple times, and TTD as well, and Pinterest, and though I’ve made a small amount of money with Magnite, I can never build conviction.

Because of all this cash I bought back into Square and Cloudflare, in which I don’t see much long term risk at all. Just thought this was better than letting the cash allocation stay even higher.

Global-e, Monday, Digital Ocean, UiPath, and Amplitude are all new positions – though some are just try-out level. More about those below.


**Allocations**
Ticker	Curr%	Aug	Jul	Jun	May	Apr	Mar	Feb	Jan
UPST	14.9%	15.6%	13.8%	10.8%	5.2%	5.3%	6.1%	3.9%	0.0%
DDOG	13.2%	11.8%	14.4%	15.0%	17.7%	14.7%	12.9%	8.6%	0.0%
LSPD	11.0%	8.4%	9.0%	8.6%	6.1%	5.2%	4.5%	1.3%	0.0%
GLBE	5.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
CRWD	4.3%	13.2%	14.1%	12.9%	18.7%	14.6%	15.8%	12.9%	14.5%
MNDY	4.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
SQ	2.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
DOCN	2.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
PATH	2.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NET	1.4%	0.0%	0.0%	2.0%	9.0%	9.8%	11.8%	12.5%	15.2%
AMPL	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
cash	38.4%	32.3%	19.2%	20.7%	20.7%	6.2%	5.9%	16.6%	32.6%

**MTD and YTD performance for each holding**
Ticker	Mo Ch	YTD Ch
UPST	38.1%	676.5%
DDOG	2.6%	43.6%
LSPD	-13.3%	37.0%
GLBE	-9.1%	#DIV/0!
CRWD	-12.6%	16.0%
MNDY	-14.0%	#DIV/0!
SQ	-10.5%	10.2%
DOCN	25.9%	#DIV/0!
PATH	-16.8%	#DIV/0!
NET	-6.7%	48.2%
AMPL	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!

Upstart (UPST)
02/26/2021: $65.64 Market Cap Approx: $4.8b, TTM Revenue: $234m)
03/31/2021: $128.86 (Market Cap Approx: $12b, TTM Revenue: $234m)
04/30/2021: $109.02 (Market Cap Approx: $10b, TTM Revenue: $234m)
05/28/2021: $148.22 (Market Cap Approx: $14b, TTM Revenue: $291m)
06/30/2021: $124.90 (Market Cap Approx: $12b, TTM Revenue: $291m)
07/30/2021: $120.76 (Market Cap Approx: $11b, TTM Revenue: $291m)
08/31/2021: $229.12 (Market Cap Approx: $22b, TTM Revenue: $467m)
09/30/2021: $316.44 (Market Cap Approx: $30b, TTM Revenue: $467m)

We have really caught a tiger by the tail here. I mean in 60 days, this has almost tripled. I’ve continued trimming. I’ll just never be comfortable enough with any company to let it get to a 20%+ allocation, but that’s just me. A leopard can’t change its spots. Kudos to you more courageous souls who have let this one run! It has worked out magnificently.

Datadog (DDOG)
02/26/2021: $95.41 (Market Cap Approx: $33b, TTM Revenue: $604m)
03/31/2021: $83.34 (Market Cap Approx: $29b, TTM Revenue: $604m)
04/30/2021: $85.77 (Market Cap Approx: $30b, TTM Revenue: $604m)
05/28/2021: $91.05 (Market Cap Approx: $31b, TTM Revenue: $671m)
06/30/2021: $104.08 (Market Cap Approx: $36b, TTM Revenue: $671m)
07/30/2021: $110.70 (Market Cap Approx: $38b, TTM Revenue: $671m)
08/31/2021: $137.80 (Market Cap Approx: $47b, TTM Revenue: $765m)
09/30/2021: $141.35 (Market Cap Approx: $49b, TTM Revenue: $765m)

Datadog held up so well that it actually finished September up for the month! But fortunately, I still found a chance to add. This business is as near to perfect as it gets: huge TAM, consistently great NRR, great new customer adds, innovation machine…there’s just nothing not to like. 12% wasn’t enough so I’m glad I got a chance to bump it up a bit.

Lightspeed (LSPD)
02/26/2021: $68.42 (Market Cap Approx: $8.1b, TTM Revenue: $176m)
03/31/2021: $62.81 (Market Cap Approx: $7.4b, TTM Revenue: $176m)
04/30/2021: $69.81 (Market Cap Approx: $8.2b, TTM Revenue: $176m)
05/28/2021: $71.99 (Market Cap Approx: $8.9b, TTM Revenue: $222m)
06/30/2021: $83.61 (Market Cap Approx: $10b, TTM Revenue: $222m)
07/30/2021: $85.53 (Market Cap Approx: $11b, TTM Revenue: $222m)
08/31/2021: $111.18 (Market Cap Approx: $15b, TTM Revenue: $301m)
09/30/2021: $96.43 (Market Cap Approx: $13b, TTM Revenue: $301m)

I mentioned I had started to trim Lightspeed in August, and I continued to do so as it climbed to $130 during September, but I’ve added it back (and much, much more) as the stock has pulled back – especially the last couple days due to the short attack. The short report didn’t have any new information in it. Some of the gripes were based on twisted truths (like sloppy IR presentations), but none revealed even a hint of malfeasance. I love the commerce engine Lightspeed is building and its focus on moving fast. They’re quickly becoming a larger and larger force in the industry, and I think the market cap will follow. Along with Upstart, Lightspeed could be the best opportunity we are seeing right now.

Global-e (GLBE)
08/31/2021: $78.96 (Market Cap Approx: $11b, TTM Revenue: $190m)
09/30/2021: $71.80 (Market Cap Approx: $10b, TTM Revenue: $190m)

I wrote a detailed post about what I expect from Global-e: https://discussion.fool.com/global-e-belief-update-34940751.aspx… I did end up adding a little more since then, because I just couldn’t pass up a price below $70. But now I am done adding – probably until the next quarterly report. Still need to learn more.

Crowdstrike (CRWD)
10/31/2020: $123.84 (Market Cap Approx: $27b, TTM Revenue: $654m)
12/04/2020: $167.26 (Market Cap Approx: $36b, TTM Revenue: $654m)
12/31/2020: $211.82 (Market Cap Approx: $50b, TTM Revenue: $762m)
01/29/2021: $215.80 (Market Cap Approx: $51b, TTM Revenue: $762m)
02/26/2021: $216.00 (Market Cap Approx: $51b, TTM Revenue: $762m)
03/31/2021: $182.51 (Market Cap Approx: $43b, TTM Revenue: $875m)
04/30/2021: $208.51 (Market Cap Approx: $50b, TTM Revenue: $875m)
05/28/2021: $222.15 (Market Cap Approx: $53b, TTM Revenue: $875m)
06/30/2021: $251.31 (Market Cap Approx: $60b, TTM Revenue: $999m)
07/30/2021: $253.61 (Market Cap Approx: $61b, TTM Revenue: $999m)
08/31/2021: $281.00 (Market Cap Approx: $67b, TTM Revenue: $1.138b)
09/30/2021: $245.78 (Market Cap Approx: $59b, TTM Revenue: $1.138b)

I was a little disappointed in the quarter Crowdstrike reported a month ago, and I’m wondering if they’re seeing more competition lately. I think this is a moment where it makes sense to have a smaller position than I have had before, but I’m not 100% convinced it needs to be sold, especially when there’s nothing I want to put the money into. Maybe I’m being stubborn, but I want to see another quarter. I think there’s a chance things could be better than the market now expects. I’m just not willing to bet as much on that as I was previously.

Monday.com (MNDY)
08/31/2021: $379.36 (Market Cap Approx: $17b, TTM Revenue: $223m)
09/30/2021: $326.20 (Market Cap Approx: $14b, TTM Revenue: $223m)

I can see that Monday has been absolutely crushing it, but I had a bias against productivity software after Smartsheet was kind of a dud and then I completely missed out on Asana’s run when I sold it at $40. I still question whether the product is mission-critical and if their amazing growth off a small base can continue. Then again, one of the best predictors of future growth is current growth. So I had to get involved with a great growth story here, and we’ll just have to see if they can keep it up.

Square and Cloudflare, as I said above, are just better-than-cash holdings, at least for now. So I don’t have a ton to say about the companies. I’ll be watching of course, and perhaps results will impel me to build them up again.

Digital Ocean, UiPath, and Amplitude are try-out positions. I’ve only had UiPath and Amplitude since yesterday. Not sure if I’ll keep any of these, but they were intriguing enough for me to try them out.

Closing Thoughts

I’d like to thank everyone who has contributed to the board in September. May October treat you well!

Bear

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” - Attributed to Albert Einstein